Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

gerrybhoy

I was only watching the day after tomorrow last week with the kids,nahh we'll never get loads of snow was one of my replies to the wee ones Going by the board experts snowmageddon could be on (joking)

gerrybhoy

monty_python wrote: »

It will with an empty bank account

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed, I have always found the cheerleading and enthusiasm for bad weather on these boards a little disquieting.

This weather, if it happens, will being misery and danger to many people.

Hot weather kills many more people and brings extreme misery to elderly, people with young children , emergency services, infrastructure services, yet I doubt you'd try make somebody feel bad about being happy if there was 30 degree weather in ireland for 2 weeks

irishrover99

monty_python wrote: »

What's the chance of this affecting flights into Dublin?? I'm flying in on the 1st

Hopefully it arrives on Friday and Dublin airport is closed for a week.

I'll stay in Thailand and yous can all share my snow

Cantona's Collars

irishrover99 wrote: »

Hopefully it arrives on Friday and Dublin airport is closed for a week.

I'll stay in Thailand and yous can all share my snow

Sharing white stuff and Thailand in the same sentence sounds really icky. :)

Cantona's Collars

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Day 13 ... Unsatisfied with his first effort, Putin cranked the weather machine to MAX COLD and sent a second wave.

In Russia you do not get snow,snow gets you.

monty_python

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

irishrover99 wrote: »

Hopefully it arrives on Friday and Dublin airport is closed for a week.

I'll stay in Thailand and yous can all share my snow

Sharing white stuff and Thailand in the same sentence sounds really icky. :)

They had frost here on the tallest mountain for 3 days in December and everybody lost there mind 🀣🀣🀣

shmaupel

While Im delighted for the rest of the country, ðŸ˜, any idea what sort of impact might this have in coastal Donegal?

I'm about 30ft from the shore. Frost is a rarity. 2010 was epic. Salt water frozen on the beach in kryptonite type crystals.

My father was a child in 1947 and remembers digging snow tunnels in the sand dunes.

Is that so much to ask?!

PS this has to be one of the best, most informative fora of any kind anywhere, such a wealth of knowledge and a huge asset. Thanks so much!

Gonzo

I was almost afraid to check in here this morning, almost expecting a signifcant downgrade. Thankfully that hasn't happened and the beast is still very much on course. I'm still keeping this one quiet with the relations for now, will tell the family maybe Thursday if this comes into the reliable time frame.

Nettle Soup

How will the beast affect central Europe next week? Germany and Hungary in particular.

Mooooo

What's cork looking like snow wise mon/ Tues?

DellyBelly

Those charts do look very interesting and the promise of snow looks inevitable hopefully though we get lucky here in Dublin and avoid the worst of it. So far we've missed all the other events over the last few weeks and i hope this continues but we will wait and see...

Lenny5

Such exciting charts. I know that the east and south are getting the best of the potential snow but surely if the cold sets in as the charts are showing then it will be a countrywide event?

Reckless Abandonment

06z GFS has snow showers starting at 6 am monday 26th on the east coast ... and not stopping at all till Monday the 5th .absolutely mental stuff.

M.T. Cranium

Nettle Soup wrote: »

How will the beast affect central Europe next week? Germany and Hungary in particular.

It will be bitterly cold with heavy snow at times mostly in southern Germany, and also in Austria and Hungary and Czech Republic by the looks of these maps. Temperatures will fall to about -15 C overnight and recover only to -7 C daytime hours (more like -8 C at night and -2 C daytime where wind is from Baltic which remains unfrozen). At some point Hungary could be hit by sleet or freezing rain as somewhat milder air moves northwest from the eastern Med, but colder air will win the battle and turn any mixed precip back to snow. Not to say it will snow throughout the cold spell, the first few days may be mostly dry before this frontal zone sets up.

Looks as though heavy snow will hit quite large areas of France, the Alpine region, northern and even central Italy, and parts of southeast Europe. It should be more of a dry cold in Poland except in the south. Overnight lows could fall to -25 C or lower in Poland, Slovakia and even a few valley locations further west into Czech Rep and Austria/Bavaria. Could be as cold as -15 C in the Netherlands and Belgium, northeast France.

aidanodr

For those on facebook OR if not, still works as public page ( ignore login request box ):

https://www.facebook.com/IrishWeatherOnline/posts/2056558221027215

Tuesday, 20 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT -- A spell of severe winter weather is now considered very likely starting around Sunday 25th and lasting perhaps a week or longer. Details are of course sketchy but the depth of cold air apparently heading west towards Ireland would suggest that temperatures could be well below freezing, and that snowfall is a strong possibility in the east, south and perhaps coastal areas of north and west as well, and we are seeing some charts on the most reliable models that are real jaw-droppers for snowfall potential, so be aware and check for updates, there is still a slight chance of a less intense outcome but with all global models marching in lock-step towards this scenario, confidence is growing.

The overall situation is that the very mild air mass from the past two days has been pushed east of Ireland now by a slowly developing high pressure area, but some of that milder air will get trapped between this weak cold air mass and the advancing Siberian very cold air, and will be returned to sender (the Atlantic) later this week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this wintry spell to continue with the European model showing potential for a heavy snowfall around 1-2 March, stay tuned as these details could change, but in any event, it appears likely that the cold spell will get one or two reinforcements from the east, with only limited amounts of warming between the coldest spells. If it does snow heavily in some areas and then clears, temperatures could drop well below -8 C over snow in clear skies. The overall effects of this spell could be quite disruptive to travel. (The chances appear to be at least 70 per cent that some form of wintry weather will occur, whether it lasts as long as some guidance suggests might be more like 40 per cent probable).

My local weather was like the above, a very cold day here with a piercing north wind blowing down the lake but mostly sunny with highs near -6 C, dazzling reflections off the fresh snow cover. The wacky weather continues in eastern North America, where they went from 20 C late last week to snow and now back to 15 C on Monday, with another cold spell looming.

WOW ... as someone above said .. and it did come to my mind too ... DAY AFTER TOMORROW Movie

sjb25

DellyBelly wrote: »

Those charts do look very interesting and the promise of snow looks inevitable hopefully though we get lucky here in Dublin and avoid the worst of it. So far we've missed all the other events over the last few weeks and i hope this continues but we will wait and see...

Coming into the boards weather forum talking like that

Gonzo

DellyBelly wrote: »

Those charts do look very interesting and the promise of snow looks inevitable hopefully though we get lucky here in Dublin and avoid the worst of it. So far we've missed all the other events over the last few weeks and i hope this continues but we will wait and see...

Dublin missed all the other snow events this winter because they were sourced from the Atlantic, effecting mostly the west and north-west of the country with far less impact across the east and south.

Next week is an entirely different beast with daytime temps possibly 3 to 6C lower than during those spells, a wind direction from Siberia instead of the north Atlantic with snow showers hitting the east and possibly south much more often this time around.

SeaBreezes

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Paris will get an Eiffel lot of snow.

MT your positively Giddy ;-)

Does it ever happen that ALL the models are in such agreement?

M.T. Cranium

Check out the jet stream maps on the GFS, around 26-28 Feb there is a full easterly jet from Britain to Labrador. The normal jet stream is pushed south of the Azores and Iberia.

I guess the inter-glacial is over.

Gonzo

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Check out the jet stream maps on the GFS, around 26-28 Feb there is a full easterly jet from Britain to Labrador. The normal jet stream is pushed south of the Azores and Iberia.

I guess the inter-glacial is over.

Imagine if this was normal for the jetstream on a yearly basis...

Ireland would be a very different country, fantastic snowy winters and some hot summers. What a difference it would make.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

aidanodr wrote: »

For those on facebook OR if not, still works as public page ( ignore login request box ):

https://www.facebook.com/IrishWeatherOnline/posts/2056558221027215

WOW ... as someone above said .. and it did come to my mind too ... DAY AFTER TOMORROW Movie

I think that's MT Craniums facebook page he posts the daily weather here,If he says it will snow it will snow

sparrowcar

Gonzo wrote: »

I was almost afraid to check in here this morning, almost expecting a signifcant downgrade. Thankfully that hasn't happened and the beast is still very much on course. I'm still keeping this one quiet with the relations for now, will tell the family maybe Thursday if this comes into the reliable time frame.

This makes perfect sense normally but in these circumstances I wouldn't wait. Media have already started getting hold of this so I imagine it will be in the papers daily from tomorrow.

Your family will think you've lost your touch if they don't hear it from you first

M.T. Cranium

SeaBreezes wrote: »

MT your positively Giddy ;-)

Does it ever happen that ALL the models are in such agreement?

Sure, when it's partly cloudy with showers.

There is a significant difference between GFS and ECM, the GFS has a concentrated and largely undisrupted easterly regime that just simply pushes its way from central Russia all the way across the Atlantic between now and the 5th or so of March. The ECM has more complexity in this easterly regime, enough so that it allows a low to form near Scotland on day 8, then rotates that through western Ireland down across the south coast by day 10 and presumably this would complete the circuit the next day.

It basically amounts to two different ways of producing heavy snowfalls and the ECM method would give more to the inland south and west than the GFS which relies mainly on sea effect from the east and south coasts.

We may see some sort of compromise solution, in other words, more sea effect than you might read into the ECM, and more synoptic scale snowfall potential than you might read into the GFS.

Verbatim, that 06z GFS run would bury northern France and if that feature happened to develop a bit closer to Brittany or Cornwall then it could be about like the ECM system as a snow producer.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sure, when it's partly cloudy with showers.

There is a significant difference between GFS and ECM, the GFS has a concentrated and largely undisrupted easterly regime that just simply pushes its way from central Russia all the way across the Atlantic between now and the 5th or so of March. The ECM has more complexity in this easterly regime, enough so that it allows a low to form near Scotland on day 8, then rotates that through western Ireland down across the south coast by day 10 and presumably this would complete the circuit the next day.

It basically amounts to two different ways of producing heavy snowfalls and the ECM method would give more to the inland south and west than the GFS which relies mainly on sea effect from the east and south coasts.

We may see some sort of compromise solution, in other words, more sea effect than you might read into the ECM, and more synoptic scale snowfall potential than you might read into the GFS.

Verbatim, that 06z GFS run would bury northern France and if that feature happened to develop a bit closer to Brittany or Cornwall then it could be about like the ECM system as a snow producer.

Didn't understand half of that but does that mean snow for Dublin 😀

leahyl

Ok I heard a mention from MT of Paris getting pummelled with snow!! Hope if it does happen that it’s all gone by 9th March :-D

NeonCookies

North East here, near enough to the coast. I'm so excited! At home full time writing up my thesis so I won't have to drive anywhere so can fully enjoy it! My only decision to make is whether to get a small fill of oil.. we are moving at the end of next month so with a very limited budget we have put off getting oil. Very little in tank and have just been using a small heater in the room we're in for the last few weeks. It's worked fine so far but this seems to be a different beast so may be worth a small delivery if only to protect the pipes.

In the same vein of what some other posters said earlier, a huge thank you to the knowledgeable posters here. I've been a constant lurker here since 2010 through many weather related ups and downs and have learned a lot from your explanations of various charts over the years, and I now know enough to be able to appreciate the current AMAZING runs!

I might watch the Day After Tomorrow later!!

sparrowcar

I work in Dublin airport and was on duty on 21st-24th of Dec 2010 which still sends chills down my spine for various work stress reasons. I couldn't actually enjoy it at the time even though I would be considered a meteosexual.

I booked annual leave a few months back for 2 weeks around my 40th to do nothing but relaxing.. and the dates... 26th Feb-12th March.

So I can't wait, bring it on, chooo chooo...all aboard, next stop Snowtown.

ike

On top of this I predict a baby boom around late November...

MissMoc

Do you think the midlands will miss out on the snow? Lots of talk about the east and south. Praying for a big snow here.