Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Villain

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

M.T. Cranium

As to Dublin and specific snowfall potential, realize this is not a forecast but rather an interpretation assuming models are right, so on that basis, would suggest that most of Leinster could see amounts in the range of 10 to 40 cms of snow, heavier amounts in streamer bands, really too early to try to get into a lot of detail, but that is the sort of range you would expect if these maps proved to be accurate, and it does not make a lot of difference which model, the timing might vary more than the eventual totals.

The potential for the south especially inland varies more and I would think the ECM run would be indicating heavier amounts by a considerable margin, like 20-40 cm while some of the other guidance might be 5-15 cm potential. You could make a case for even heavier snowfalls if the full depth of the cold air materializes.

Most likely amounts near the west coast might be a lot lower, if it's just a constant east to northeast wind, then just traces to 5 cm overall, but if there's some variety in wind direction, then more into 5 to 15 cm.

But this is all dependent on the maps being reasonably accurate.

Gonzo

sparrowcar wrote: »

This makes perfect sense normally but in these circumstances I wouldn't wait. Media have already started getting hold of this so I imagine it will be in the papers daily from tomorrow.

Your family will think you've lost your touch if they don't hear it from you first

I just don't want family buying loads of stuff for this not to happen, then I get blamed! On the safe side I have ordered oil for the house and will make sure there is enough essential supplies just in case. If this is still looking great by Thursday, that still gives everyone 3 days to prepare which is more than enough time.

oterra

Villain wrote: »

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

Its all about the trend and the fact that the Major models are now beginning to come into agreement that a significant easterly setup is imminent. Nothing set in stone yet but if the agreement is still there by Thursday, then game on!!

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

With an SSW in play I don’t think we’ve been in this position before with charts like this on show , that’s not to say it still can’t all go wrong !

sjb25

Gonzo wrote: »

I just don't want family buying loads of stuff for this not to happen, then I get blamed! On the safe side I have ordered oil for the house and will make sure there is enough essential supplies just in case. If this is still looking great by Thursday, that still gives everyone 3 days to prepare which is more than enough time.

I’m going with this iv plenty of oil anyway so I’ll wait till Thursday even Friday before I get to excited

Rebelbrowser

Villain wrote: »

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

As all the best economists said when there was talk of a "hard landing" in early 2008 - "this time its different!"

Seriously though I think there is more certainty now than in the epic fails of 2012 and 2007. If it goes south (quite literally) from here then they should just abandon the whole weather model thing.......

patneve2

ECM run? No comment. As others have said, there will have to be some sort of downgrade from now. Unbelievable charts, it's like the most hardcore boards.ie weather members got together and drew them. Unreal.

PukkaStukka

ike wrote: »

On top of this I predict a baby boom around late November...

Nothing like making fire by rubbing stick..!

lucernarian

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

As all the best economists said when there was talk of a "hard landing" in early 2008 - "this time its different!"

Seriously though I think there is more certainty now than in the epic fails of 2012 and 2007. If it goes south (quite literally) from here then they should just abandon the whole weather model thing.......

I'm trying to look back through charts in 2012, was this an event in early Feb? I wasn't really active back then.

cnocbui

Villain wrote: »

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

The money men are already raising gas and other heating fuel prices in Europe. i doubt they would be doing that if they weren't fairly certain the demand was about to surge.

patneve2

Heavy snow showers starting to appear on yr.no forecasts for the E coast https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dalkey_Hill/long.html

Seriously though, would hold any excitement for the moment as charts are still FI

Rebelbrowser

Think its this thread for 2012 epic fail.... https://www.boards.ie/b/thread/2056532735?

Johnny_Fontane

cnocbui wrote: »

The money men are already raising gas and other heating fuel prices in Europe. i doubt they would be doing that if they weren't fairly certain the demand was about to surge.

interesting. Exactly what markets are these? Might have a few quid on IG Index

Larbre34

I really think we need to be careful with this stuff. Yes the models are basically unprecedented but both state and amateur weather forecasters are under a high level of scrutiny due to allegations of crying wolf in relation to some winter storms and over the efficacy of the warning level protocol. The UK tabloids are losing reason over it, as per usual and thats what bothers me, nobody here wants to be lumped in with their sensationalist and trigger happy approach.

When it comes to telling people who arent weather junkies about this or letting loose on social media, I think the UK met's narrative is most appropriate, and I paraphrase, 'this week is going to get colder each day with frosts early and late, but with sunny spells by day. There is a risk of even colder weather with some snow into next week, so stay in touch with the forecasts'

There really is no point alerting the general public to take action until it is nailed on, and the areas most at risk identifiable, because if we cry wolf over this one, it'll take a long time to restore credibility.

For my own part, ill make sure my loved ones in have a full freezer, a good few 5L waters, enough fuel if they arent on mains gas and that their cars have appropriate fluids and safety kit in the boot.

MJohnston

We should start getting signals from an additional model later today, around 4pm I think for the 12Z run of the ARPEGE model. It goes up to +114h and that should cover up to Monday 7am in the 12Z run. Just another model to compare however, it's not that the ARPEGE is any more reliable!

esposito

Larbre34 wrote: »

I really think we need to be careful with this stuff. Yes the models are basically unprecedented but both state and amateur weather forecasters are under a high level of scrutiny due to allegations of crying wolf in relation to some winter storms and over the efficacy of the warning level protocol. The UK tabloids are losing reason over it, as per usual and thats what bothers me, nobody here wants to be lumped in with their sensationalist and trigger happy approach.

When it comes to telling people who arent weather junkies about this or letting loose on social media, I think the UK met's narrative is most appropriate, and I paraphrase, 'this week is going to get colder each day with frosts early and late, but with sunny spells by day. There is a risk of even colder weather with some snow into next week, so stay in touch with the forecasts'

There really is no point alerting the general public to take action until it is nailed on, and the areas most at risk identifiable, because if we cry wolf over this one, it'll take a long time to restore credibility.

Well said Larbre34. Still too early to get excited as all still in FI range. A few more days required and if the output is something similar then I’ll be telling folk.

squarecircles

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Macy0161

Larbre34 wrote: »

There really is no point alerting the general public to take action until it is nailed on, and the areas most at risk identifiable, because if we cry wolf over this one, it'll take a long time to restore credibility.

It's too late anyway. All the recycled news sites like joe were posting about this spell this morning. I think this is where the increasing forecasters are useless stuff comes from - not enough emphasis on "potential".

Cantona's Collars

Wait until the Daily Mail blames immigrants from the East for bringing cold and snow. :)

Hooks Golf Handicap

I'm a snow lover as much as the next person.
My car measured -16 one morning during 2010 going over a hill near Crookstown on the M9.
Never forget the 2 black lines, 20kph funeral procession every day for a month.

What annoyed me then was the length it went on, when the thaw came on Stephen's Day we were all glad to see the back of it, even the kids.
This upcoming spell looks to be locked in for a long haul too.

tikkamark

I know it’s probably not mad accurate but all this talk of serious cold seems to line up on the long range windy app forecasts,it’s giving heavy snow from next Wednesday on and the temperatures to drop rapidly from Sunday on for the whole of next week.
Something vicious is definitely on route I’d reckon.

Nettle Soup

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I'm a snow lover as much as the next person.
My car measured -16 one morning during 2010 going over a hill near Crookstown on the M9.
Never forget the 2 black lines, 20kph funeral procession every day for a month.

What annoyed me then was the length it went on, when the thaw came on Stephen's Day we were all glad to see the back of it, even the kids.
This upcoming spell looks to be locked in for a long haul too.

I might be wrong but I believe there is an anarchist hiding within every snow lover or extreme weather enthusiast.

irishrover99

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

irishrover99 wrote: »

Hopefully it arrives on Friday and Dublin airport is closed for a week.

I'll stay in Thailand and yous can all share my snow

Sharing white stuff and Thailand in the same sentence sounds really icky. :)

Are you 10 years old. Maybe then it sounds ikky to you

Jumpinjames

Long time observer on here so only signed up yesterday as this potential cold spell is both exciting and I will admit worrying. But it’s weather and regardless of whether we love snow or not, if it happens it happens. My parents live in rural NW so while the indications are that the heavy snow will mainly impact east coast, I am going to warn them on Thursday if the forecast remains the same. That will give them time to get extra heating oil and supplies in. In meantime I don’t want to alarm them.

Although I’m aware of hardships etc I feel guilty as I am very excited about next week. I’m in Dublin so if it does materialise then I’m in the thick of it. The thoughts of piles of snow and long clear bitter nights are just brilliant.

squarecircles

The purple shading in southwest England, -14 !!!

cnocbui

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

interesting. Exactly what markets are these? Might have a few quid on IG Index

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/siberian-chill-arriving-in-europe-sends-energy-prices-surging

Calibos

ike wrote: »

On top of this I predict a baby boom around late November...

My Father was born on September 22nd..........1947.

Make of that what you will!!

lawred2

squarecircles wrote: »

The purple shading in southwest England, -14 !!!

Would those Irish temps be considered extreme?

MJohnston

lawred2 wrote: »

Would those Irish temps be considered extreme?

Those are at 6pm in March so definitely out of the ordinary.