Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

gabeeg

tikkamark wrote: »

I know it’s probably not mad accurate but all this talk of serious cold seems to line up on the long range windy app forecasts,it’s giving heavy snow from next Wednesday on and the temperatures to drop rapidly from Sunday on for the whole of next week.
Something vicious is definitely on route I’d reckon.

windy app and website uses the same model data we're looking at here.

It defaults to the ECM, but you can also choose the GFS or ICON which are both useful too.

barney 20v

I've been following cold events on Boards since 2009 I think , this looks like potentially the most serious event for my location ( Blackstairs Mountain Co Wexford 200 mt asl ) since we got 14 inches of snow in 2010.

I remember getting snowed in during 1987 and again in 1991 (same area) so i'm expecting more of the same this time.
If the cold sets in as forecast and we get E or SE winds then we always get snow here.

Very interesting thread !

John.Icy

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Think its this thread for 2012 epic fail.... https://www.boards.ie/b/thread/2056532735?

Post by Seanknowsall on page 4 (touch site) of that thread. Unreal call.

Let's hope he stays away from this cold spell!

lawred2

MJohnston wrote: »

Those are at 6pm in March so definitely out of the ordinary.

Abnormal yes but extreme?

i.e. in the context of this thread where an extreme snow event is being predicted?

I suppose what I'm asking is whether in and around freezing point is what people are expecting?

lawred2

John.Icy wrote: »

Post by Seanknowsall on page 2 of that thread. Unreal call.

Let's hope he stays away from this cold spell!

can you link to the post because everyone's posts per page could be different? So page 2 could be different for everyone

tikkamark

gabeeg wrote: »

tikkamark wrote: »

I know it’s probably not mad accurate but all this talk of serious cold seems to line up on the long range windy app forecasts,it’s giving heavy snow from next Wednesday on and the temperatures to drop rapidly from Sunday on for the whole of next week.
Something vicious is definitely on route I’d reckon.

windy app and website uses the same model data we're looking at here.

It defaults to the ECM, but you can also choose the GFS or ICON which are both useful too.

Thank you for that bit of info as I’m very basic with these different charts and models but I’ve followed this forum for years and find it fascinating how accurate the likes of Kermit and mt cranium manage to predict long term weather events particularly cold weather.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Guys. Is it time yet to crack open skulls and feast on the goo inside? Or should we wait a week?

Mullaghteelin

The most infuriating thing about these easterlies for those of us on the East coast, will be the gap in the showers caused by the Isle of Man.

January 2010 was the worst. Lying snow in Dublin city centre, and most of the east coast, except for a small area around Balbriggan, which had nothing but the lightest flurries. Nothing worse than missing out on heavy showers over and over when everywhere else is getting pasted.

King of Spades

Not much hint as to the potential severity of the cold on met.ie. A lot of people, particularly farmers, rely on their outlooks. Should they not be highlighting the potential the charts are showing, with lambing season etc coming into peak season?

George Sunsnow

lawred2 wrote: »

Would those Irish temps be considered extreme?

Under cloud cover and outbreaks of snow,I’d say yes

Franz Von Peppercorn

King of Spades wrote: »

Not much hint as to the potential severity of the cold on met.ie. A lot of people, particularly farmers, rely on their outlooks. Should they not be highlighting the potential the charts are showing, with lambing season etc coming into peak season?

It’s a week away. If they cry wolf people disregard the next warning.

lawred2

King of Spades wrote: »

Not much hint as to the potential severity of the cold on met.ie. A lot of people, particularly farmers, rely on their outlooks. Should they not be highlighting the potential the charts are showing, with lambing season etc coming into peak season?

they are going to err heavily on the side of caution... as in not sparking any sort of panics.

they're probably all excited as hell reading every chart going but come the six one news - it'll be back to conservative.

there is probably a case of having seen it all before - wouldn't be the first week out snow forecast to turn to 2 degrees and rain

Cantona's Collars

irishrover99 wrote: »

Are you 10 years old. Maybe then it sounds ikky to you

Ah jaysus lad,have a sense of humour.......no matter how juvenile.

Even MT Cranium is getting giddy.

Danno

lawred2 wrote: »

can you link to the post because everyone's posts per page could be different? So page 2 could be different for everyone

https://www.boards.ie/search/submit/?user=189606&sort=newest

Strangegravy

lawred2 wrote: »

Abnormal yes but extreme?

i.e. in the context of this thread where an extreme snow event is being predicted?

I suppose what I'm asking is whether in and around freezing point is what people are getting expecting?

It's more about the precipitation, under certain conditions, that can come along with those temperatures.

Snow trains from the Irish sea for the East would be a big one; those are temps at ground level (I think, I didn't check) which would mean that upper temperatures are way colder, perfect conditions for heavy dumpings of snow and possible thunder snow.

Again, this is still all a bit far out, could still all change; but with each day and no real backtrack it gets more a more certain of perfect conditions for a "big snow" set up in certain areas.

I suppose that's the excitement part.

Kermit.de.frog

In relation to the weekend it will turn progressively colder from Friday, frosts increasingly widespread and more severe.

While the more intense cold is not yet with us at that point we are already bringing in cold surface temperatures off the continent.

Temperatures for Sunday afternoon.



Feeling increasingly raw in a southeasterly breeze over the weekend. You'll know something interesting is coming. And it will feel different compared to previous cold snaps - the air will be drier.

Good output again overnight for those that want the severe cold and snowfall, again just air on the side of caution for now.

lawred2

Danno wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/search/submit/?user=189606&sort=newest

cheers

presume it was this one -> https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76783911&postcount=40

can't even remember such excitement in 2012 to be honest

Kermit.de.frog

lawred2 wrote: »

cheers

presume it was this one -> https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76783911&postcount=40

can't even remember such excitement in 2012 to be honest

I see my pleas for calm have not changed

I'd hope after spending the last week or more getting to grips with the setup that people would use sense at this stage and just be aware. That's all. No need to panic buy or anything crazy like that. But just keep in the back of the mind that conditions could be radically about to change. Be aware of it particularly for elderly people and animals and that.

:pac:

King of Spades

lawred2 wrote: »

they are going to err heavily on the side of caution... as in not sparking any sort of panics.

they're probably all excited as hell reading every chart going but come the six one news - it'll be back to conservative.

there is probably a case of having seen it all before - wouldn't be the first week out snow forecast to turn to 2 degrees and rain

I understand that. But maybe there’s room for them not to issue weather warnings yet but instead say that the charts are showing “the potential for severe cold and significant snowfall.” It could at least alert those that need time to get preparations done?

Based on this thread, I’ve been warning a few farmers here locally that it could potentially happen.

now online

I check the weather forum here every morning, slowly beginning to understand it.
Thanks to all ye amateur experts for the best updates!

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

People do realise this is still all after +120 and Fantasy Island right?

I mean it looks like loads of potential etc but we have marched up this hill a few times before!

You're dead right the charts have led us to the garden path a number of times.
However what makes this different in my view is that the brains of the UK met office are fully behind this. This was not the case previously in a number of phantom cold spells.

How epic this will be or not is the question. We would want to be very unlucky to miss out on a big snowfall event especially in the east and south.

munsterlegend

King of Spades wrote: »

I understand that. But maybe there’s room for them not to issue weather warnings yet but instead say that the charts are showing “the potential for severe cold and significant snowfall.” It could at least alert those that need time to get preparations done?

Based on this thread, I’ve been warning a few farmers here locally that it could potentially happen.

Met Eireann never go beyond 7 days in a forecast unlike their uk colleagues. I think Friday/Saturday will be soon enough for any warnings.

John.Icy

lawred2 wrote: »

cheers

presume it was this one -> https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76783911&postcount=40

can't even remember such excitement in 2012 to be honest

Yeah that's the one. Brave call. I do remember 2012 and the disappointment, at the same time there was a reported 800+ deaths related to the European cold spell of late Jan 2012 onwards. It was rather severe. There's been a couple of others since 2010 but we're only talking a few days of trends that never got THAT close. You'd almost recall at least one phantom Easterly meltdown on Netweather a year - but that's probably abit of an exaggeration

A good rule of thumb when looking at potential cold spells for Ireland to avoid disappointment: If the cold spell is driven by a Scandinavian high - there's a decent chance the orientation of it doesn't end up being our friend and we sit and look East at cold that never quite makes it to us.

EDIT: Just looked back in the GFS run archives for the period in question for Ireland. Surprising lack of runs that ever put Ireland in any sort of decent Easterly flow. Surprised really it was such a disappointing disappearing Easterly for many here.

Cantona's Collars

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Eireann never go beyond 7 days in a forecast unlike their uk colleagues. I think Friday/Saturday will be soon enough for any warnings.

The problem is that if a warning is given over the weekend and people are blasé about it seeing as many saw warnings over the winter that turned out to be mere wet and windy weather these same folk could be seriously caught out next week. Then of course they'll blame Met Eireann for not warning them soon enough. Forecasters can't win.

Pangea

Does anyone recall the mini ice age East Ulster had back in 2013 while the rest of us got nothing.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-weather-chaos-raf-chopper-drops-animal-feed-into-cutoff-glens-29158257.html

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pangea wrote: »

Does anyone recall the mini ice age East Ulster had back in 2013 while the rest of us got nothing.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-weather-chaos-raf-chopper-drops-animal-feed-into-cutoff-glens-29158257.html

Remember it well, could see the snow capped mournes from my living room in Co Meath! What a difference 50 miles makes.

lucernarian

lawred2 wrote: »

can you link to the post because everyone's posts per page could be different? So page 2 could be different for everyone

At least it's not something like "56", which could be any number of different possibilities

Should be somewhere between 1 and 3 pages no matter what settings you use. Direct linking of a post is best anyway.

Rebelbrowser

[QUOTE= Just looked back in the GFS run archives for the period in question for Ireland. Surprising lack of runs that ever put Ireland in any sort of decent Easterly flow. Surprised really it was such a disappointing disappearing Easterly for many here.[/QUOTE]

Agree, that potential event had nothing on this. I was on netweather a lot at the time and I think the mania over there at the time has polluted my memory.

So maybe set ups like this don't ever go belly up with 5 days to go so! (I wasn't on weather fora in 2007 I should add....)

lucernarian

lawred2 wrote: »

cheers

presume it was this one -> https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76783911&postcount=40

can't even remember such excitement in 2012 to be honest

I'm amazed it even got two thanks, such is the sh1tstorm that breaks out if someone's being pessimistic here.

Johnny_Fontane

I refuse to believe any of this until I see snow chains in dealz for 1.49