Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes but the model only runs to 120 hrs, next update shortly.

oooooooooohhhhhhh

sjb25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

Would you just look at that

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

Yeah ye just look at that and think how de f#*k can anything stop that from making it here!

gerrybhoy

Tabnabs wrote: »

Because they own the top right hand corner of the island....?

Bu they dont forecast for the South though thats my point

Hooter23

davidsr20 wrote: »

Forgive me but -5 isn’t that extreme or is this an average over the week? I was under the impression we were talking a possible -10 and lower. I remember -18 in Athlone in 2010.

Also thanks to all on here for providing us with the updates on charts etc.

Yes but the time on that chart is only 6 oclock in the evening and its already well below freezing:eek:

Elmer Blooker

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Eireann never go beyond 7 days in a forecast unlike their uk colleagues. I think Friday/Saturday will be soon enough for any warnings.

ME's first mention of snow though very cautious which is to be expected.
This is for early next week.

There is a risk of some wintry showers in some eastern and southern coastal counties and some may be of snow, but mainly dry elsewhere.

Tabnabs

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Bu they dont forecast for the South though thats my point

Yeah, but if you watched the video, you'd see the temperature scale for the whole of Europe (where they also don't have an interest in) and the deep cold doesn't extend to the island of Ireland. They place us (North and South) on the margins. That's my meteorological and non political point

Dubh Geannain

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah ye just look at that and think how de f#*k can anything stop that from making it here!

Now I'm no weather expert but this could just work

https://www.facebook.com/events/126766931320280/

:pac:

Kermit.de.frog

Tabnabs wrote: »

Yeah, but if you watched the video, you'd see the temperature scale for the whole of Europe (where they also don't have an interest in) and the deep cold doesn't extend to the island of Ireland. They place us (North and South) on the margins. That's my meteorological and non political point

That's because at that particular time, on the ECM model which they are using, a lot of Ireland is under a snow event which would keep temperatures around the freezing point night and day. Frontal troughs bring slightly milder air which gives them their energy. Difference here is it is embedded in exceptionally cold air (the "milder" air is very cold air in itself).

All sorts of dynamics to consider. Does not make it "not severe".

Cantona's Collars

Should we run a sweep on when exactly we'll see the first post of "what time will it snow in (insert location here) and will the buses run?".

flanzer

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

It actually looks like it indicates right as the main low touches France and decides to become an easterly for us! :eek::D

BLIZZARD7

That is a superb day 5 chart

dacogawa

GFS 12z slowed a little bit but still ending in the same place, looking forward to the ECM this evening...

JCX BXC

12Z delaying the cold a little bit, not surprising when you consider how far it's been brought forward. Looking good at least!

Youngpensioner

I think people are getting carried away. ECM doesn't bring the proper cold until day 10. And talk of 2010 being beat or matched is nonsense, won't come close in terms of cold.


Second cold spell in 2010 from the Northerly, a proper one via a Greenland high Castlederg had temperatures of -5 or below continuously for 187 hours, that's almost 8 full days. 6 of those nights sub -15, a 7th time during the last evening of cold spell at 7pm, a low of -18.7,a daily maximum of -11. Another location near hand beat it with a maximum of -11.3. This won't come close to that anywhere, it was most extreme in Castlederg.



Also yr weather which uses the ECM model data doesn't show anything extreme until day 10, pushed back that the previous ECM run.



Dublin maximums for next week with ECM

Monday 3c

Tuesday 4c

Wednesday 2c

Thursday-2

Belfast

4c,5c,2c,-2 for the same days.



So we're waiting until day 10 before we see anything extreme with the ECM . I think people are getting carried away, yes other models look better but until ECM brings it in closer range I'd urge caution, day 10. The Western 2 thirds of the country look bone dry as well, unless a front from the Atlantic comes in. So much hype for this because areas that don't see much snow, will see snow. This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

davidsr20

Here we go the dreaded slowed and at least phrases lol

dacogawa

Youngpensioner wrote: »

I think people are getting carried away. ECM doesn't bring the proper cold until day 10. And talk of 2010 being beat or matched is nonsense, won't come close in terms of cold.


Second cold spell in 2010 from the Northerly, a proper one via a Greenland high Castlederg had temperatures of -5 or below continuously for 187 hours, that's almost 8 full days. 6 of those nights sub -15, a 7th time during the last evening of cold spell at 7pm, a low of -18.7,a daily maximum of -11. Another location near hand beat it with a maximum of -11.3. This won't come close to that anywhere, it was most extreme in Castlederg.



Also yr weather which uses the ECM model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10, pushed back that the previous ECM run.



Dublin maximums for next week with ECM

Monday 3c

Tuesday 4c

Wednesday 2c

Thursday-2

Belfast

4c,5c,2c,-2 for the same days.



So we're waiting until day 10 before we see anything extreme with the ECM . I think people are getting carried away, yes other models look better but until ECM brings it in closer range I'd urge caution, day 10. The Western 2 thirds of the country look bone dry as well, unless a front from the Atlantic comes in. So much hype for this because areas that don't see much snow, will see snow. This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

That's some first post on here, I'm sure the locals will love it :rolleyes:

Anyway, I haven't seen anyone is saying it is going to be 2010, people know it's over the usual 96 hours banking (or 96 mins with snow) people are just enjoying the amazing charts that are coming out and urging caution.

I personally wouldn't agree with your exact forecast and do think yr.no has been a bit off lately but I'm sure we'll see in the next week or so...

TheMilkyPirate

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

Villain

Youngpensioner wrote: »

This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

Who said it will be though?

As I have posted we have seen this go pear shaped but I don't think anyone with any knowledge of chart watching has said it will be like 2010?

Youngpensioner

dacogawa wrote: »

That's some first post on here, I'm sure the locals will love it :rolleyes:

Anyway, I haven't seen anyone is saying it is going to be 2010, people know it's over the usual 96 hours banking (or 96 mins with snow) people are just enjoying the amazing charts that are coming out and urging caution.

I personally wouldn't agree with your exact forecast and do think yr.no has been a bit off lately but I'm sure we'll see in the next week or so...

I have seen others say 2010 like, just some, I'm only urging caution and yr forecast is made up of the ECM the best model there is whether people rate it or not the stats back it up. And yes enjoy the charts but nothing to enjoy ECM wise until day 10 so the hype is a bit OTT IMO

Rebelbrowser

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

All of the 12z runs of the main (admittedly not high res) models I've looked are excellent (eg. GFS, UKMO, ICON, GEM) so I wouldn't be too worried.

squarecircles

12z 850 hpa temperatures diluting and pushing back eastwards,sloppy green patches appearing on the west coast,alot less snow from Wednesday 28th onwards

Could be the start of it going pear shaped for Ireland, certainly for the west coast.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Villain wrote: »

Who said it will be though?

As I have posted we have seen this go pear shaped but I don't think anyone with any knowledge of chart watching has said it will be like 2010?

There was talk of 1947 just yesterday.

Jumpinjames

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

Crickey.... is it all about to go pear shaped? Please let this ARPEGE be an outlier and that it will fall back in place with the other models. I live in Clondalkin. We have had two snowfalls this year which hardly amounted to anything and didn’t lie on the ground for more than 12 hours. I need a serious snow fix before April. I feel a bit deflated now.

Beechwoodspark

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There was talk of 1947 just yesterday.

Someone earlier on said 20% chance of a repeat of 1947.

davidsr20

squarecircles wrote: »

12z 850 hpa temperatures diluting and pushing back eastwards,sloppy green patches appearing on the west coast,Wednesday 28th,

Could be the start of it going pear shaped for Ireland.

Will never just be plain sailing for us will it

SeaBreezes

On netweather, they are already comparing charts from 1947 to now..
And theres not much in it, (going on current charts, which we all know could change overnight)

homolumo

Keep the faith people; stay the course. It ain’t called a roller coaster for nothing!

Rebelbrowser

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Someone earlier on said 20% chance of a repeat of 1947.

That was me! I know nothing about weather I should add but just saying what the charts say......

squarecircles

https://youtu.be/3Zgs4eL3GU8

Hu-ho,And there she goes spilling down Into Iberia.