Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

John.Icy

To just analyse the GFS 12z out to +200; actually a little disappointing after several runs in a row of fantastic charts. Orientation of the high isn't great, locking in a more SE/ESE breeze throughout rather than switching to more E/ENE as per previous output. Less favourable track for Irish sea activity for many along the East Coast (still great for some) & as someone else noted some dilution of the colder airmass occurring over us.

In saying that, pointless worrying about orientation of the high and whether we can lock in an E/ENE breeze or what the uppers are like at this stage. Signal for heights to our N/NW & NE is continuing strong and unchanged - wind direction and angle of attack will change from run to run for another few days at least.

EDIT: Looking at the mood of some posters in the last page or so - please don't interpret my post as ''it's all gone pear shaped''. Again, same theme - minor differences in this run compared to previous. No need to panic at all...yet

pistolpetes11

Run to run variations , calm the jets folks

force eleven

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Run to run variations , calm the jets folks

Yes indeed. GFS run is not great at all for coldies. Not disastrous, but more like ECM of yesterday morning. Bin it. Eyes down for the ECM evening run...

squarecircles

I'm glad I hadn't got swept away in the tide of euphoria just yet,nor did I decide to glue tennis rackets to my boots,

lawred2

are some people losing heart already?

easyvision

See told you, we don't really get snow in DUB! Sleet prob at best and the usual 4C! Grand job! Least there will be no disruption I guess for travelling etc! Be lucky if we get a few stray flakes, quote this post if you want when it doesn't snow

Snowbiee21

lawred2 wrote: »

are some people losing heart already?

They can all they want, one model run and there loosing a run for themselves . Far from over .

Spanish Eyes

What weather circumstances caused 2010? Anything similar to this at all.

torres9kop

I agree. I cant see much out of this. The usual early load shooters going overboard. So many on here say u cant tell whats going to happen more than 96 hrs out. Yet this is over a week away. Strange

squarecircles

The netweather forum must a depressing sight right now,what with its bi-polar tendencies.

On a positive note it's a beautiful spring evening.

JCX BXC

I don't see anything particularly negative from this run, it's slightly less intense than the 18Z scary run last night but remember the breakdown is well outside of the reliable range so that will continue to fluctuate for the next few days.

I'm not understanding both the extremely negetive and positive posts we're seeing. It's not within the reliable range yet so just hold your horses for a while!

Dubh Geannain

lawred2 wrote: »

are some people losing heart already?

Snowflake generation

pauldry

Some people are starting to bitch

They think its all over

Jumpinjames

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

They can all they want, one model run and there loosing a run for themselves . Far from over .

Sadly, experience has shown us time after time that once the first wobbles set in, the cold is doomed. I was talking to my folks today and they were saying that it’s a lovely spring day in Mayo and I was about to tell them about next week (even though I said I would hold off until Thursday)... thankfully I said nothing. My father gets worked up over bad weather etc. Fingers crossed it is just a bit of model variation and things get back on track with this evening’s runs.

jay28

What time does the ECM generally roll out at?

JCX BXC

jay28 wrote: »

What time does the ECM generally roll out at?

6-7pm.

BLIZZARD7

easyvision wrote: »

See told you, we don't really get snow in DUB! Sleet prob at best and the usual 4C! Grand job! Least there will be no disruption I guess for travelling etc! Be lucky if we get a few stray flakes, quote this post if you want when it doesn't snow

And what about if it does? Can I quote this then too?

Lots of over reacting going on - let's see how the next few days go, inter run variation is all we are seeing here.

*do keep an eye on potential short wave problems in the nearer time frames though. (+72 to +120hrs)

JCX BXC

Just to point out, the end of the run has a fantastic low pressure over brittany giving us north easterly winds and widespread snow away from the Northwest and the far southern fringes. Very far out but just one to bank.

pistolpetes11

torres9kop wrote: »

I agree. I cant see much out of this. The usual early load shooters going overboard. So many on here say u cant tell whats going to happen more than 96 hrs out. Yet this is over a week away. Strange

There wouldn't be an active forum here if it wasn't for the "The Usual early load shooters"

Find the comment pretty disingenuous to all the folks in here that are breaking down the charts and describing what is happening with them

wakka12

poof

barney 20v

torres9kop wrote: »

I agree. I cant see much out of this. The usual early load shooters going overboard. So many on here say u cant tell whats going to happen more than 96 hrs out. Yet this is over a week away. Strange

Does that include MT Cranium ???:)

patneve2

The very low night temps experienced in the run up to Christmas 2010 (21-24 dec 2010) were the result of a pool of arctic air with a very slack flow over Ireland. The slight winds and thick snow cover made those low temps possible. 850s-wise the uppers of second cold spell of Dec 2010 were cold but not unheard of.

This appears to be a very different beast with a strong continental element to the flow. The source of the air as modeled is vastly superior to the second blast of December 2010. If we do get snow out of this set up, it will be pure powder. Type of stuff where you'd get -1 C DP of -7 right on the coast with showers of powder.

Having said this, this really isn't set in stone. A few hundred km north or south or a slight change in the orientation of the high can be the difference between a foot of snow and just dry and frosty weather. The GFS 12z illustrates this perfectly. 140 hrs is an abyss when forecasting an easterly and I'm patiently waiting until Saturday evening to fully come on board (or not).

easyvision

And what about if it does? Can I quote this then too?

Lots of over reacting going on - let's see how the next few days go, inter run variation is all we are seeing here.

*do keep an eye on potential short wave problems in the nearer time frames though. (+72 to +120hrs)

Always gets downgraded and turn to nothing much, I expect the same will happen. I really cant see much happening. Cold yes, maybe a few showers, a ton of snow, no

We will be lucky to get any snow to stick in DUB anyway. By Sunday I would say this will be downgraded to showers of snow

force eleven

Just hold fire on it is best advice now. Over on Netweather they were arguing over how many feet of snow would fall. Maybe it still will but a week out, it is truly impossible to say.

snowstorm445

GEFS mean is fantastic in comparison to the OP and keeps Northwest Europe under a massive cold pool with the high further north.

Hence I wouldn’t worry about the OP, it’s just a variation. The ARPEGE however is slightly worrying.

Burts Bee

I don't think me nerves can handle this! I know I'm not supposed to get excited this early but....
Is there a top three 'prepping' things to do before a big cold you guys would advise?

BLIZZARD7

easyvision wrote: »

Always gets downgraded and turn to nothing much, I expect the same will happen. I really cant see much happening. Cold yes, maybe a few showers, a ton of snow, no

We will be lucky to get any snow to stick in DUB anyway. By Sunday I would say this will be downgraded to showers of snow

Expect all you want, maybe you will be right but we can only go on what the charts are showing and right now that is a very cold and potentially snowy picture. Nobody promised a ton of snow they just described how the models were showing the potential for heavy snow, and they still are.

You have to understand the difference between a forecast and describing what the models are showing. If you read back over the model output and winter discussion threads you will see this isn't a normal setup and that there are other big factors at play (major ssw etc) increasing confidence in a colder outlook than would normally be the case at this range.

Kermit.de.frog

I think people need to get a bit of perspective. You are going to always get variation in output.

I'll give a more comprehensive update later on. Suffice to say still on track as per the OP. The risk of severe weather is not going anywhere.

Bio Mech

The immaturity on this forum can be staggering at times. The sniping and criticising. And toy throwing.

Any chance we could stick to discussion of the weather? And maybe take time to thank the people who make the effort to post and interpret the charts without getting on their backs if it doesn’t exactly agree with what you want.

john mayo 10

Toys been thrown out of the parm already by some posters. Thats a bloody good 12z run. A bit delayed that previous run but still good.