Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Itssoeasy

Would I be correct in saying there is a bit of a chill(no pun intended) on the jubilant atmosphere last night after whatever was seen by the people in the know ?

I mean what exactly has people saying to stall the digger ?

easyvision

Expect all you want, maybe you will be right but we can only go on what the charts are showing and right now that is a very cold and potentially snowy picture. Nobody promised a ton of snow they just described how the models were showing the potential for heavy snow, and they still are.

You have to understand the difference between a forecast and describing what the models are showing. If you read back over the model output and winter discussion threads you will see this isn't a normal setup and that there are other big factors at play (major ssw etc) increasing confidence in a colder outlook than would normally be the case at this range.

I do get this, I just don't believe it will be as bad as charts say, I still expect a downgraded picture by Sunday. I do believe it will definitely be cold. Just how snowy I don't know beyond some showers. I think it could be highly localized and could depend on those streamers f 2010. I guess we really don't know. I just don't expect a dumping of snow 2010 style, as much as I would kill for it! Dying for a bit of DRAMA

torres9kop

NO ones throwing toys out. I wish people would give honest views instead of ramping up any change in the weather. Met eireanns forecasts have been spot on last few winters. They never exaggerate. I do enjoy reading the posts here but come on lads, look in the mirror. Too much unnecessary ramping at times

pad199207

To the posters on here with their scaremongering, ITS ONLY ONE RUN

Still fantastic synoptics, yee were fairly quiet in here up until this evening...

Soccarboy11

I think people need to understand this is the weather forum and not after hours. People will be discussing the charts and what they look like to them, and if you feel like you need to quote that and say people are getting too excited this isn't the place to do it IMO . Charts change every run, they go from good to good, good to bad, bad to good bad to worse etc etc. We are discussing what the charts are showing. This whole 'its totally gone now' is a bit ridiculous because it's been delayed somewhat on the models. What the charts are showing now is still great.

sryanbruen

easyvision wrote: »

I do get this, I just don't believe it will be as bad as charts say, I still expect a downgraded picture by Sunday. I do believe it will definitely be cold. Just how snowy I don't know beyond some showers. I think it could be highly localized and could depend on those streamers f 2010. I guess we really don't know. I just don't expect a dumping of snow 2010 style, as much as I would kill for it! Dying for a bit of DRAMA

But to be honest, who exactly is "expecting" a lot of heavy snow or 2010-esque styled snow? Absolutely nobody.

You're being negative for nothing, think you need to chill a bit bud. We can only interpret charts for now and estimate how much snow there "could" be with the synoptics given.

sryanbruen

torres9kop wrote: »

NO ones throwing toys out. I wish people would give honest views instead of ramping up any change in the weather. Met eireanns forecasts have been spot on last few winters. They never exaggerate. I do enjoy reading the posts here but come on lads, look in the mirror. Too much unnecessary ramping at times

Think you're misinterpreting the posts here. You're the same guy who asked me in the FI charts thread if we're going to get snowmaggedon and I said, nobody's expecting it.

Let's not forget you're also the same guy who posted a snow picture from 2010 in one of the event threads here and trying to catch some attention/thanks.

KingdomRushed

What exactly is this Arpege output that people are worrying about? Any shortwave in the short-term will surely be pushed outward by the massive cold pool forcing east?

Beechwoodspark

Serious question. Does anyone have an idea of the probability that applies for charts that are say, 5,10 days out and further?

Youngpensioner

Bio Mech wrote: »

The immaturity on this forum can be staggering at times. The sniping and criticising. And toy throwing.

Any chance we could stick to discussion of the weather? And maybe take time to thank the people who make the effort to post and interpret the charts without getting on their backs if it doesn’t exactly agree with what you want.

My post was before the GFS 12z. Just mentioning that the ECM the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10. And that people are getting carried away and to urge caution until ECM comes more on board in the reliable time frame.

lucernarian

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

And what about if it does? Can I quote this then too?

Lots of over reacting going on - let's see how the next few days go, inter run variation is all we are seeing here.

*do keep an eye on potential short wave problems in the nearer time frames though. (+72 to +120hrs)

Why would they be a problem if the cold pool is, well, cold enough? Do we want to see some snow or just cold and dry days? Or do you think something will steer away from Ireland and treat the rest of the continent to ample snow?

As for some of the posts here, a lot of growing up to do... Nonsense like "yee were fairly quiet in here up until this evening", what is this, a hurling match?

Rebelbrowser

Youngpensioner wrote: »

My post was before the GFS 12z. Just mentioning that the ECM the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10. And that people are getting carried away and to urge caution until ECM comes more on board in the reliable time frame.

Actually the 0z ECM shows -10s over leinster in less than 7 days time. See below. Of course that could change....

BLIZZARD7

lucernarian wrote: »

Why would they be a problem if the cold pool is, well, cold enough? Do we want to see some snow or just cold and dry days? Or do you think something will steer away from Ireland and treat the rest of the continent to ample snow?

As for some of the posts here, a lot of growing up to do... Nonsense like "yee were fairly quiet in here up until this evening", what is this, a hurling match?

I mean before the cold pool arrives here, ie over the north sea up near scandi - the Arpege run this afternoon shows how this could divert the coldest uppers, not a likely outcome at the monent but worth bearing in mind.

pistolpetes11

torres9kop wrote: »

NO ones throwing toys out. I wish people would give honest views instead of ramping up any change in the weather. Met eireanns forecasts have been spot on last few winters. They never exaggerate. I do enjoy reading the posts here but come on lads, look in the mirror. Too much unnecessary ramping at times

Can you give an honest interpretation of what you see on the models now ?

Break it down like the good folks here ,

ECM
GFS
GEFS
GEM
ICON

I think you will find what they are all telling you is a cold blast of winter weather is due , how cold ,or snowy is another matter but again open to interpretation of what you think the models are showing

Jeju

Might mow the lawn Saturday, should be able to roll a bigger snowman base on Sunday without the longish grass.

lucernarian

It would be good to keep as much of the model posts and the likes in the Models thread, it's getting hard to follow the meaningful posts here among all the noise and "I disagree" posts.

It wasn't long ago that opening a thread for a >T+168hr event would be ridiculed. It's still great to see some real winter weather potential before February is out and as Soccarboy11 said, it's not After Hours...

Youngpensioner

@Rebel

Check Yr weather which uses ECM data

Maximum temperatures for Dublin next week

Monday 3c
Tuesday 4c
Wednesday 2c
Thursday -2

Nothing extreme until day 10. There's more to it that uppers. My point is the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10 and I'm urging caution as some are getting carried away. The latest ECM delayed the cold too. Now let's see how the next one goes. I hope it upgrades.

ZX7R

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Serious question. Does anyone have an idea of the probability that applies for charts that are say, 5,10 days out and further?

Good question, as far as I am aware, all the long range charts are probability charts and are used as probability as too what the weather might do in the future, as far as I know the charts that are released during the day are based on hundreds of operateral runs, so say 70 of those runs show cold the output run would have a 70% probability of happening,
This is my basic understanding, I could be 100% wrong, hopefully a poster with better knowledge will explain better

Jumpinjames

Donegal weather channel saying that there is a downgrade. They are saying it will still be cold but I have a feeling, a horrible feeling, that a downward trend is inevitable. I am genuinely disappointed.

MJohnston

Youngpensioner wrote: »

@Rebel

Check Yr weather which uses ECM data

Maximum temperatures for Dublin next week

Monday 3c
Tuesday 4c
Wednesday 2c
Thursday -2

Nothing extreme until day 10. There's more to it that uppers. My point is the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10 and I'm urging caution as some are getting carried away. The latest ECM delayed the cold too. Now let's see how the next one goes. I hope it upgrades.

Why would you use yr.no when there's direct access to the ECM charts? We don't know the methodology that yr uses to translate chart data into forecasts.

sryanbruen

Youngpensioner wrote: »

@Rebel

Check Yr weather which uses ECM data

Maximum temperatures for Dublin next week

Monday 3c
Tuesday 4c
Wednesday 2c
Thursday -2

Nothing extreme until day 10. There's more to it that uppers

I wouldn't be looking at sites honestly (and especially weather apps - to me they're an abomination), especially those such as Yr weather. 3c is very cold going into March in of itself, well below the average for a daytime temperature which should be around 9 or 10c by this stage of the year for most. Those sorts of predictions tend to be a few degrees off sometimes. Somebody had mentioned that Athenry got down to -1c last night I think and Met Éireann didn't predict such figures across the country.

I am not getting the pessimism at all from anybody. Nothing has changed. Nobody's expecting snowmaggedon. Models still showing some potential historic cold beginning Sunday night, one run isn't going to hurt ya. I know that I've been a victim of this at times, but that's pessimists more pissing me off than anything. I can have poor critical thinking sometimes and others can influence my opinions.

We can only interpret the charts we're given.

Youngpensioner

MJohnston wrote: »

Why would you use yr.no when there's direct access to the ECM charts? We don't know the methodology that yr uses to translate chart data into forecasts.

Yr weather 10 day forecast is made entirely of the ECM run, that's why. People don't like the truth.

George Sunsnow

Let me explain - Each of these weather runs are in an ensemble of several
Each run is an ensemble member ran with a slight starting variation they are called perturbation’s
The perturbation you see is the operational
It’s judged for accuracy by looking at its relationship with its other perturbations and by lining it up beside similar models

If the op run is much milder or colder than the mean of all the members and persistently out of kilter with other models,then its dismissed usually by forecasters

The setting up synoptic of this upcoming cold spell is set in stone in my opinion there will be no avoiding it
The details,minute details aren’t but MT cranium gave you an educated hunch in his morning forecast as to the various options this has for going
Anyone without that level of understanding doesn’t know what they are talking about


I’m expecting another super run from the ECMWF tonight by the way,the main overall picture model European forecasters use
Lastly,in Kermit we trust

Youngpensioner

sryanbruen wrote: »

I wouldn't be looking at sites honestly (and especially weather apps - to me they're an abomination), especially those such as Yr weather. 3c is very cold going into March in of itself, well below the average for a daytime temperature which should be around 9 or 10c by this stage of the year for most. Those sorts of predictions tend to be a few degrees off sometimes. Somebody had mentioned that Athenry got down to -1c last night I think and Met Éireann didn't predict such figures across the country.

I am not getting the pessimism at all from anybody. Nothing has changed. Nobody's expecting snowmaggedon. Models still showing some potential historic cold beginning Sunday night, one run isn't going to hurt ya. I know that I've been a victim of this at times, but that's pessimists more pissing me off than anything. I can have poor critical thinking sometimes and others can influence my opinions.

We can only interpret the charts we're given.

Whether you like it or not the it's made entirely on the ECM run. Met Éireann being wrong last night means nothing in regard to it. And 3c this time of the year will lead to a lot of snow melt.

pjohnson

How often do these "runs" (think I'm using right term?) occur?

I thought all these gifs/graphs were "live updates" in that they are constantly changing. Do they only get officially released/updated say every hour/2 hours or so on?

pistolpetes11

Its an automated weather site , just churns out what the models are showing any given day , I find them absolutely rubbish outside of 48 hours personally ,

Same as the ones that give data on smartphones or accuweather

Youngpensioner wrote: »

@Rebel

Check Yr weather which uses ECM data

Maximum temperatures for Dublin next week

Monday 3c
Tuesday 4c
Wednesday 2c
Thursday -2

Nothing extreme until day 10. There's more to it that uppers. My point is the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10 and I'm urging caution as some are getting carried away. The latest ECM delayed the cold too. Now let's see how the next one goes. I hope it upgrades.

Rebelbrowser

Youngpensioner wrote: »

@Rebel

Check Yr weather which uses ECM data

Maximum temperatures for Dublin next week

Monday 3c
Tuesday 4c
Wednesday 2c
Thursday -2

Nothing extreme until day 10. There's more to it that uppers. My point is the best model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10 and I'm urging caution as some are getting carried away. The latest ECM delayed the cold too. Now let's see how the next one goes. I hope it upgrades.

I've no idea what yrno uses but the chart I posted was directly from the ECM shows -10 uppers. These extend to all Ireland in the next shot. The temps you are posting there are daily maxima. It could be a snowfest with a daily max of 3 or 2 degrees, let alone -2.

In terms of the 12z GFS, which others (not you) are calling worrying and the like...



I've seen worse.....

sryanbruen

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Whether you like it or not the it's made entirely on the ECM run. Met Éireann being wrong last night means nothing in regard to it. And 3c this time of the year will lead to a lot of snow melt.

Your post doesn't make the slightest bit of sense..... moving on.

munsterlegend

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Donegal weather channel saying that there is a downgrade. They are saying it will still be cold but I have a feeling, a horrible feeling, that a downward trend is inevitable. I am genuinely disappointed.

Any update from Donegal County Council? There was a lad here before who always had the lowdown. Wish he was here now.

BLIZZARD7

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Whether you like it or not the it's made entirely on the ECM run. Met Éireann being wrong last night means nothing in regard to it. And 3c this time of the year will lead to a lot of snow melt.

Not under extremely dry continental air, the temperature is only one variable in snow melt. It's not that simple.

Don't why we are discussing a temperature that will change between now and then anyway.