Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

derekon

sryanbruen wrote: »

Like 40cm of snow, in Dublin? Come on.

Now that's a bit disingenuous!! Please go back and read what MT actually said!!

D

JCX BXC

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Somebody please post the 18Z GFS +192 chart so we can also get carried away again. Wow

I prefer the +198 one

sryanbruen

barney 20v wrote: »

Any chance of a link to where MT forecast that?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106201623&postcount=423

United road

sryanbruen wrote: »

Like 40cm of snow, in Dublin? Come on.

Your messing Sryan yeah?
He never said that, please re-read it and you will see that is incorrect and not a fair comment to attribute to him.

Kermit.de.frog

Most likely ETA of the very cold air is Sunday night viewed model wide.

A few hours here or there makes little difference to be perfectly honest.

Jumpinjames

Rougies wrote: »

It's perfectly plausible. We got about 30cm twice in South Dublin in Dec 2010, in fact the second big fall was probably about 35cm. Get under a decent streamer for hours and 40cm is easily done.

I measured 29 cm of level snow in the middle of a large green space in clondalkin in December 2010. It’s plausible that snow depths in some areas were 30 to 40 cms.

George Sunsnow

nacho libre wrote: »

Is the high heading toward Greenland on this run? I don't understand why people are being so negative when we are seeing stellar charts for cold and snow.
Ok. We probably won't get a foot and a half of snow out of it(we knew deep down there would be downgrades from the dream charts), but there will be decent accumulations if charts don't downgrade massively in the next few days.

What’s happening in this thread with some,I call Celtic tiger disease
The need to have everything now
No looking at the wood for the trees
This event and let us call it that is happening
Runs need to be seen where they are in their group of ensemble members
Where they are with respect to other models and how they and their companions are performing elsewhere in the northern hemisphere
There’s no picking up some positive or negative bone and running away with it

Enjoy

God be with the days when all we had were lads with pointy sticks to go on and trouble pronouncing Russian cities

TheMilkyPirate

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106201623&postcount=423

Did you even read the link you posted?

"would suggest that most of Leinster could see amounts in the range of 10 to 40 cms of snow, heavier amounts in streamer bands"

BLIZZARD7

30cm here the first time in December 2010, 35cm + the second time, like rougies said if you get stuck under a streamer these totals are possible.

beefburrito

How about Clare do ye reckon Clare will get any snow?

sryanbruen

United road wrote: »

Your messing Sryan yeah?
He never said that, please re-read it and you will see that is incorrect and not a fair comment to attribute to him.

I think a good night sleep is certainly in order for me because I am certainly losing my mind here, don't ya think? Like what the actual crap am I saying here? What has gone over me?

P.S. I love MT and I'm very sorry for my ridiculous behaviour here tonight.

George Sunsnow

Great forecast from Tomaz on bbc one now
Super clear and explanatory graphics with a huge globe explaining subtle nuances governing how cold it’s going to get and how much snow

The stand out comment from him was ‘once this easterly sets in (whether northeasterly or southeasterly too at times) it’s going to be with us a long long time
As I said Enjoy

JCX BXC

beefburrito wrote: »

How about Clare do ye reckon Clare will get any snow?

We simply do not know, less likely than eastern and southern counties however.

barney 20v

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106201623&postcount=423

"realize this is not a forecast but rather an interpretation assuming models are right"

Rekop dog

The ratio of predicted snow showers on these boards to actual snow showers is about 20:1.

lucernarian

JCX BXC wrote: »

I prefer the +198 one

That's a very very dry feed of cold air. It's a good prospect though, a different evolution of the HP altogether though it doesn't develop such a solid block considering the easterlies would be almost gusty from those tight isobars.

If the dewpoints are low and low saturation of upper levels, we'd want the cold air to cool those jets. But this is 8 days away and much of the finer details about snowfall will have to wait till Friday at least.

George Sunsnow

Jumpinjames wrote: »

I measured 29 cm of level snow in the middle of a large green space in clondalkin in December 2010. It’s plausible that snow depths in some areas were 30 to 40 cms.

Indeed I had just shy of 18 inches by Xmas eve here near Arklow,I still use old money
Anyhow I’m out for now
Maybe more tomorrow !

SeaBreezes

I'd say we are all a bit Giddy lately :-) no ones sleeping (too busy watching charts) and we are afraid to believe the charts we see!!

Soccarboy11

I can't remember how much we had in cork city in 2010, I was only 10 at the time but I can't remember anything notable besides freezing cold, water to my house being Frozen in the pipes and haivng to salt my driveway!

Either way I think we will all be happy once cork gets something out of this, I'd say you are sick of us at this stage with our 'Snowshield' shenanigans!

Youngpensioner

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Indeed I had just shy of 18 inches by Xmas eve here near Arklow,I still use old money
Anyhow I’m out for now
Maybe more tomorrow !

What altitude?

sideswipe

just saw some footage on youtube of a bbc forecast from the 80's. God I used to love those graphics- black cloud outline with 1,2,or 3 white snowflakes showing the level of snow falls expected. Good times!

BorneTobyWilde

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSZ25ikUKVY

So we could go from sub zero to just a few chilly days. Would be great to see it unfold worse than predicted though.

squarecircles

A balmy end to the 18z run as muck gets in.

pad199207

I think after this evenings model runs ‘Caution amongst all the madness’ is the theme

CeilingFly

Original post created 18.40 yesterday.

835 posts responding in 28 hours

Is this a boards record?


If you go by number of replies in 24 hours, this had better be one hell of a weather event.

PukkaStukka

Anyone care to offer an opinion on current Irish Sea temps and what role this may have in this forthcoming cold snap?

United road

sryanbruen wrote: »

I think a good night sleep is certainly in order for me because I am certainly losing my mind here, don't ya think? Like what the actual crap am I saying here? What has gone over me?

P.S. I love MT and I'm very sorry for my ridiculous behaviour here tonight.

Well fair play to you, thats also a big statement. But a very decent and honest one!
Im not one to talk, i was banned in 2011 for 2 days for throwing my toys out of my pram when my snow never arrived :-(

Chasing snow In Ireland, nobody said it would be easy!

George Sunsnow

Youngpensioner wrote: »

What altitude?

162ft 2 miles from the Irish Sea
There was as much in the town itself and on the beach

nacho libre

squarecircles wrote: »

A balmy end to the 18z run.

Something Gaoth Laidir didn't point out about the GFS, as well as a penchant for overdoing the depth of cold, it is also progressive in bringing back the Atlantic in these situations. I recall it doing the same during the March 2013 easterly, only for it to backtrack on a few occasions. I would go with the UK Met office thinking on this; which is, the block, once in place, will be hard to shift.

Gaoth Laidir

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Anyone care to offer an opinion on current Irish Sea temps and what role this may have in this forthcoming cold snap?

The Irish Sea is 7-8 °C. As long as there's at least a 13-degree difference between it and around 850 hPa temperature then sea-effect precipitation is possible. The problem is with levels above that. If the high sticks around and keeps that inversion in place then convection won't be deep enough for more than light showers.