Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

rooney30

Will boards.ie be offering a counsellling service to posters if this all goes tits up ?

kingshankly

CeilingFly wrote: »

Original post created 18.40 yesterday.

835 posts responding in 28 hours

Is this a boards record?


If you go by number of replies in 24 hours, this had better be one hell of a weather event.

A Utd v Liverpool match thread would get that in 90 minuets

PukkaStukka

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The Irish Sea is 7-8 °C. As long as there's at least a 13-degree difference between it and around 850 hPa temperature then sea-effect precipitation is possible. The problem is with levels above that. If the high sticks around and keeps that inversion in place then convection won't be deep enough for more than light showers.

What about snow trains coming into this UK from the North Sea? Would they sustain westwards to reach the Irish Sea and keep going?

J6P

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The Irish Sea is 7-8 °C. As long as there's at least a 13-degree difference between it and around 850 hPa temperature then sea-effect precipitation is possible. The problem is with levels above that. If the high sticks around and keeps that inversion in place then convection won't be deep enough for more than light showers.

Interested in this myself... the effect of the sun will be a positive for convection compared to December 2010

Kermit.de.frog

BLIZZARD7

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Anyone care to offer an opinion on current Irish Sea temps and what role this may have in this forthcoming cold snap?

Temp is 7.8c in Dublin Bay, probably more like 10c in the middle of the Irish Sea, Lake effect kicks in big time when there's a 15-20c temp difference between sea temps and 850hpa temps. The lower the air pressure the heavier the showers too, we look to have a temp difference of somewhere between 17c and 23c at times next week. This should in theory mean heavy streamers forming .

The sun strength this late in the season will aid convective activity during the day also.

Gaoth will be the one to consult on this closer to the time with skew T charts.

Gaoth Laidir

PukkaStukka wrote: »

What about snow trains coming into this UK from the North Sea? Would they sustain westwards to reach the Irish Sea and keep going?

Impossible to say at this stage. North of Liverpool possibly, but the treck across the Pennines could wring the moisture out. The fat part across Wales would surely be a bridge too far.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Now its charts for Wednesday...... it was charts for Tuesday yesterday. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Youngpensioner

George Sunsnow wrote: »

162ft 2 miles from the Irish Sea
There was as much in the town itself and on the beach

Over 45cm seems a highly excessive. Are you sure you measure it correctly? 24cm was the highest recorded in wicklow by Met Éireann, 10 minute drive up the road from Arklow. Almost double? Have my doubts. The other station in wicklow highest recorded was 18cm. Sources met Éireann website major weather events 2010.

Gaoth Laidir

Current sea temperatures (ECMWF).

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022012/ireland/water-temperature/20180220-1200z.html

NAGDEFI

sryanbruen wrote: »

I think a good night sleep is certainly in order for me because I am certainly losing my mind here, don't ya think? Like what the actual crap am I saying here? What has gone over me?

P.S. I love MT and I'm very sorry for my ridiculous behaviour here tonight.

Don't worry Sryan we all respect you. It's possibly that feeling we all have 'Jeez this is too good to be true!!'.

But i'm convinced it is true. We're going to have major snowfalls, every part of the country could be hit. We'll break all time March lows.

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Now its charts for Wednesday...... it was charts for Tuesday yesterday. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

As said Sunday night is the most likely arrival time but it's actually Monday on the GFS



I'm confident enough to say it will be Sunday night rather than Monday itself.

gabeeg

pad199207 wrote: »

Now its charts for Wednesday...... it was charts for Tuesday yesterday. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

That's just the pick of the bunch. We have -8s hitting the east coast at 7pm Monday on the very same run.

pad199207

Large Funeral wrote: »

Don't worry Sryan we all respect you. It's possibly that feeling we all have 'Jeez this is too good to be true!!'.

But i'm convinced it is true. We're going to have major snowfalls, every part of the country could be hit. We'll break all time March lows.

I’ll have whatever your having

BLIZZARD7

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Over 45cm seems a highly excessive. Are you sure you measure it correctly? 24cm was the highest recorded in wicklow by Met Éireann, 10 minute drive up the road from Arklow. Almost double? Have my doubts. The other station in wicklow highest recorded was 18cm. Sources met Éireann website major weather events 2010.

Streamers are extremely localized with different snow depths, I would say he absolutely recorded that amount, there was close to 2 feet of level snow in higher parts of South Dublin (still where people live like)

pad199207

gabeeg wrote: »

That's just the pick of the bunch. We have -8s hitting the east coast at 7pm Monday on the very same run.

Very true indeed it’s just I’m trying to pin down Sunday Afternoon into Evening time as when decent cold air starts to arrive. It was showing that yesterday.

Sunday evening as the start of this ‘event’

squarecircles

rooney30 wrote: »

Will boards.ie be offering a counsellling service to posters if this all goes tits up ?

Maybe ring the live line.

"They said it would snow Joe"

"Sure,sure,sure and how low did dey sayz the 850 hpa temperatures would go caller"???

-15 Joe!!!

Ahhhh jaaaaaaysus.
Day do be saying thats though,
Don't day.

Villain

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Streamers are extremely localized with different snow depths, I would say he absolutely recorded that amount, there was close to 2 feet of level snow in higher parts of South Dublin (still where people live like)

I saw 16 inches around 40cm in Tullow from Streamers in 2010, I even have proof

https://flic.kr/p/pvyC2Y

Youngpensioner

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Streamers are extremely localized with different snow depths, I would say he absolutely recorded that amount, there was close to 2 feet of level snow in higher parts of South Dublin (still where people live like)

Higher ground yes but double than was recorded by Met Éireann 10 miles up the road I have my doubts. People often exaggerate weather conditions and almost double than was recorded and at a beach is hard to believe.

Villain

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Higher ground yes but double than was recorded by Met Éireann 10 miles up the road I have my doubts. People often exaggerate weather conditions and almost double than was recorded and at a beach is hard to believe.

See my post above, 40cm in Tullow, not high ground.

kittyn

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Streamers are extremely localized with different snow depths, I would say he absolutely recorded that amount, there was close to 2 feet of level snow in higher parts of South Dublin (still where people live like)

I wish I could like this post more than once ....... im ever so slightly annoyed at the inference that GS is exaggerating his snow depths back in 2010 ......

Rougies

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Anyone care to offer an opinion on current Irish Sea temps and what role this may have in this forthcoming cold snap?

They will be around 8C next week compared to 11-12C in Dec 2010.

Pro of lower SST: Less modification to lower level cold

Con of lower SST: Less convective potential to form snow showers.

If current charts verify we probably won't have to worry much about modification as the air will be very cold coming from a frozen continent, temps and dew points should be good for snow right to near the coast.

As for convective potential, (as a rough guide) a difference of 13C between SST and 850hpa temps is a good starting point for light snow showers, 15C-17C moderate snow, 17C - 20C heavy snow showers and >20 very heavy with possible thundersnow. There are other factors like wind speed, wind sheer, and temps at other heights of the atmosphere as Gaoth Láidir alluded to earlier, but the most important starting point is temp difference between the sea and 850hpa

So basically at 8C sea temp, I think we'd want to see -7 850s at a minimum for anything worthwhile, (assuming the lower levels are cold enough for modification not to be an issue). I'd like to see about -10 850s to be safe though.

NAGDEFI

pad199207 wrote: »

I’ll have whatever your having

Sparkling Water..sober as a judge;)

I'll be having 'naturally' chilled water stuck in the snow in my backgarden next week;)

gabeeg

Jaysus lads, the bickering is bloody awful.

In case you haven't noticed, we're having loads of weather.

kod87

Villain wrote: »

I saw 16 inches around 40cm in Tullow from Streamers in 2010, I even have proof

https://flic.kr/p/pvyC2Y

see, that's why I am so bitter about the 2010 fiasco, I had 0 inches of snow in tipp. Was such a miserable year for snowfall (imby perspective obviously)

yournerd

Can someone explain to me what’s happening Sunday???

BLIZZARD7

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Higher ground yes but double than was recorded by Met Éireann 10 miles up the road I have my doubts. People often exaggerate weather conditions and almost double than was recorded and at a beach is hard to believe.

'at a beach' ffs he said 2 miles inland. Look up how localized steamers and associated depths can be, I live at 40m asl not inland far and recorded 35cm or maybe even 40, I have pics somewhere. Villian posted his above.

kod87

yournerd wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what’s happening Sunday???

mass at 11

gabeeg

yournerd wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what’s happening Sunday???

MASS

gabeeg

Those pictures were hoaxes.

You'd clearly diddled your rulers