Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Kermit.de.frog

I would say some preparations could be made at this point but don't go over board with it. Still some changing to get through.

This is coming near to within the range of the higher resolution models now.

pistolpetes11

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Met.ie are mentioning cold next week but think showers will be isolated, and localised to the east coast.

Any reason to think that is wrong? As far as I can see (from reading here) the whole idea that we get significant snow is based on possible lake effect streamers but that’s far from guaranteed. I don’t buy the “get the cold and the snow will follow”, sometimes cold is just cold.

ME won’t cause panic a week out and say to expect X amount of snow

Franz Von Peppercorn

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

ME won’t cause panic a week out and say to expect X amount of snow

I know. So let me rephrase.

Is there any reason to assume that these easterly winds will bring lots of snow. Particularly past the east coast.

Kermit.de.frog

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

I know. So let me rephrase.

Is there any reason to assume that these easterly winds will bring lots of snow. Particularly past the east coast.

Amounts of snow and where can not be forecast with any accuracy yet. All that can be said at this point is the east and south are most at risk.

There will be clarity on this before the end of the week. It's a fluid situation.

JCX BXC

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

I know. So let me rephrase.

Is there any reason to assume that these easterly winds will bring lots of snow. Particularly past the east coast.

Lake effect snow and imbeded troughs. No guarantee on snow.

irishrover99

My take on things from reading this thread tonight is that people are realising it's more likely to be another missed snow storm, so the bickering has started and the stories about what it was like in 82, 2010 have started.

BLIZZARD7

irishrover99 wrote: »

My take on things from reading this thread tonight is that people are realising it's more likely to be another missed snow storm, so the bickering has started and the stories about what it was like in 82, 2010 have started.

You haven't grasped it very well then, the outlook hasn't changed since the thread was started.

irishrover99

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

irishrover99 wrote: »

My take on things from reading this thread tonight is that people are realising it's more likely to be another missed snow storm, so the bickering has started and the stories about what it was like in 82, 2010 have started.

You haven't grasped it very well then, the outlook hasn't changed since the thread was started.

I see a pattern with these threads and this looks no different to previous ones.

Perhaps I'm wrong but if I was a betting man I know where I'd be putting my money.

M.T. Cranium

It's six hours between model runs, most of the chat is just to stay awake until the next one. No real trends, just continued solid potential for cold and reasonable chances for snow. If I was going to bet, I would say snow more likely than not in Leinster and south coast. But I don't consider it locked in even if the charts verify, you can be more certain of cold (generally below -4 at night) than snow at this time frame. But there are no really obvious danger signs yet, we've seen from the start that this would tend to come together over the weekend with acceleration westward which makes it that much more tricky to speculate about snow, our tells from what happens in eastern England will not be available much in advance and otherwise the Irish portion of this cold air mass seems to be taking a land trajectory south of the Baltic so anything that happens around Baltic will be more applicable to Scotland, possibly eastern NI, rather than Leinster.

BLIZZARD7

GFS has the high a touch too close to us from the north- UKMO/GEM have a nicer evolution and flow. The cold looks locked in either way.

Youngpensioner

GFS different. Cuts off the Easterly a lot quicker. More of a Northerly on the cards as the run progresses. By this point anyway

M.T. Cranium

This is looking like a long-duration cold spell the way the GFS is trending, with more disruption to the easterly flow than previous runs, and apparently increasing snowfall potential each day after Tuesday 27th. GEM also has some good synoptics although I decided to ignore it past day eight as it seems to over-amplify the southern stream near northern Italy.

Still quite a potent shot of cold by Tuesday 27th into Wednesday 28th but south is favoured slightly although now with troughs advancing from northeast to southwest and only very minor warming with them, suggests possible snow events for more parts of Ireland than just an easterly alone could provide.

Generally pleased to see these changes, will be very interesting to see if ECM returns to any hints of embedded low pressure near Ireland as per last night's amazing display.

M.T. Cranium

Evolves more like 1947 than any previous run. Not a real northerly as we would recognize that term (source near east Greenland) but a northeasterly around 1-2 March that looks potentially quite good for snowfall production.

Of course these details could be science fiction, all we really know is that very cold air is coming from high latitudes of Russia and Finland, the devil's in the details for snow but you can count on temperatures being a good five degrees or more below average for about a week starting Monday (and it won't be warm on the weekend except mild near the west coast on Saturday perhaps).

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO 00z is best so far (cold arriving during Sunday night)

JanuarySnowstor

At 168hrs ecm.....no thanks
Cold and dry.....This event is starting to crumble with the coldest uppers not reaching us and the high too close to us

force eleven

If ECM is the king, then a lot of disappointment incoming I feel. There is bitter air coming westward next week, that much is nailed on, but increasingly it gets deflected south and east. We get colder weather but largely dry. Further on, its fantasy island really, we may get the jackpot but we need a big slice of luck now.

munsterlegend

kod87 wrote: »

well, the ecm has high pressure lingering closer to us. Still very cold but looking drier. The cold plunges deeper south into europe

What can go wrong will go wrong when it comes to cold. Happens so often that the colder air plunges south into Europe before reaching us. Of course it may allow an attack from the north east for these shores but that's FI stuff.

M.T. Cranium

Not really seeing it as a downgrade but better prospects for snow as the flow turns increasingly northeasterly with disturbances embedded. If there is some snow in the initial phase then clearing, it's going to get very cold inland which will lead to better dynamics for streamers eventually.

Also not that convinced that models are doing much more than over-amplifying small variations, let's see what really happens next week. This has a lot of momentum in terms of large-scale movement of very cold air westward.

Disruptions for London and Paris will have effects on Irish air travel too.

KingdomRushed

The WTF element has certainly evaporated from charts like ECM. Less chance of the -12 C explosive beast from Siberia with good thickness and dry snow potential. Though still a savagely cold outlook no longer historical looking

M.T. Cranium

If it's a long duration cold spell, who's to say at this stage what the eventual outcome will be? Also there is plenty of time for the picture to change in detail, it has done so every day so far, but the idea of very cold air arriving around Monday has not really changed.

Still seeing colder air over eastern Britain than has been seen there in many years so I feel it's too early to be writing off the potential of this spell, if it digs in, we may be dealing with day after day of meso-scale features eddying around, historical cold spells of long duration look like a dog's breakfast sometimes on the charts.

I think when different models have different solutions, the tendency is to pick one or a compromise, but they could all be wide of the mark too. The return of old abandoned features on future model runs is something that seems to happen quite often, there was a reason why that feature showed up, and the reason can sometimes return to play.

Youngpensioner

Dry and cold. I urged caution yesterday. Still subject to change but definitely downgrades in terms of snow as the high is too close. The GFS and ECM picked it up, expect the GEM and UKMO to cotton on later.

munsterlegend

The UK Met Office update overnight still has a very wintry outlook. I suppose we do get carried away with a set of runs and variations.

pad199207

A very cold spell of weather is pretty much nailed on now at this stage. However in terms of snowfall it’s negotiable.

I have a feeling though the high pressure will trend northwards allowing better snow potential the closer we get to Sunday. So don’t lose hope yet all yee snow lovers!

I think people are mad to just completely dismiss snow chances. Get the cold in first and then see where we are. Best chances since 2010 of the beautiful dry white gold falling!

George Sunsnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

The UK Met Office update overnight still has a very wintry outlook. I suppose we do get carried away with a set of runs and variations.

Exactly
The flow is from the east now,whatever quadrant it’s east all the way from Siberia with dew points to literally die from the cold for
Some of the commentary is just a bit inexperienced in this regime
The potential longevity of this is new,the dynamics are going to be very dramatic at times
We’re essentially being handed a get out of North Atlantic drift jail card to try out for a while which for a place as far north as Boston as we are is quite exciting
Yet some people are getting disappointed
They needn’t be
I’m expecting some very snowy scenarios in the coming forthnight or more

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Exactly
The flow is from the east now,whatever quadrant it’s east all the way from Siberia with dew points to literally die from the cold for
Some of the commentary is just a bit inexperienced in this regime
The potential longevity of this is new,the dynamics are going to be very dramatic at times
We’re essentially being handed a get out of North Atlantic drift jail card to try out for a while which for a place as far north as Boston as we are is quite exciting
Yet some people are getting disappointed
They needn’t be
I’m expecting some very snowy scenarios in the coming forthright or more

It beats polar maritime Atlantic air hands down that's for sure. I just want some snow that lasts for 2-3 days nothing spectacular but a decent covering. For now plenty potential and I am sure plenty ups and downs in the next 2 weeks or more.

ninebeanrows

I was disappointed with the EC Op but the EPS is steadfast. 850 means below -8 from 144-240.

Let's hope we see a correction north of the high in subsequent runs

lawred2

George Sunsnow wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

The UK Met Office update overnight still has a very wintry outlook. I suppose we do get carried away with a set of runs and variations.

Exactly
The flow is from the east now,whatever quadrant it’s east all the way from Siberia with dew points to literally die from the cold for
Some of the commentary is just a bit inexperienced in this regime
The potential longevity of this is new,the dynamics are going to be very dramatic at times
We’re essentially being handed a get out of North Atlantic drift jail card to try out for a while which for a place as far north as Boston as we are is quite exciting
Yet some people are getting disappointed
They needn’t be
I’m expecting some very snowy scenarios in the coming forthright or more

I think Dublin is further north than Boston

ps200306

lawred2 wrote: »

I think Dublin is further north than Boston

It certainly is. Boston is at the latitude of Barcelona. Dublin is at the latitude of Polar Bear Provincial Park, at the bottom of Hudson Bay.

NoodleMc

konman wrote: »

I was in argos today getting a couple of things for the garden and spotted a snow shovel. Been meaning to get one for year's, anyways the 2 guys at the pickup section had a good giggle at me buying a snow shovel. They obviously don't follow this thread ðŸ˜
I'm not expecting to get to use it next week either by the way.

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

sryanbruen

I see models are still trying to get a grip. At this stage, they’re just all playing around on the same theme with different variations. I’m not surprised with the former because another SSW has just occurred (Canadian Warming specifically - which is very unusual to be taking place in February). This is evident from the large spike yesterday on the charts I posted in the Winter discussion thread at 30hPa. Expect them to drop from now on but don’t expect enormous drops down to colder than average again because the stratosphere stays rather warm throughout the outlook. This is good because it means zonal winds will continue to struggle to reverse back or going back above average speeds. Hopefully, the models will really begin to stop being a nuisance in providing different variations on the same theme from now but I’d personally doubt it. Never say never however.