Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

George Sunsnow

lawred2 wrote: »

I think Dublin is further north than Boston

Yeah I know
But you get my point about the get out of jail card we’re trying out

LEIN

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If it's a long duration cold spell, who's to say at this stage what the eventual outcome will be? Also there is plenty of time for the picture to change in detail, it has done so every day so far, but the idea of very cold air arriving around Monday has not really changed.

Still seeing colder air over eastern Britain than has been seen there in many years so I feel it's too early to be writing off the potential of this spell, if it digs in, we may be dealing with day after day of meso-scale features eddying around, historical cold spells of long duration look like a dog's breakfast sometimes on the charts.

I think when different models have different solutions, the tendency is to pick one or a compromise, but they could all be wide of the mark too. The return of old abandoned features on future model runs is something that seems to happen quite often, there was a reason why that feature showed up, and the reason can sometimes return to play.

This is the the type of positivety and level headedness that we need here.

JCX BXC

The massively negetive posts surrounding MT's posts are in my opinion evidence of how some are genuinely desperately trying to dismiss chances of snow!

RandomAccess

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

There's a lad on donedeal selling a load of them as loading shovels. Probably got caught with the stock ages ago. See Hecht Shovels.
Maybe he will clear his stock!
They are cheap everywhere at the moment but nobody will gaurantee big snow yet..

pad199207

JCX BXC wrote: »

The massively negetive posts surrounding MT's posts are in my opinion evidence of how some are genuinely desperately trying to dismiss chances of snow!

Indeed and thats fair enough however at the same time we have to accept that some models arent showing the Wow Factor upper airs previously being modeled.
I wouldnt say some posters are out there to deliberately downplay the chances of snow while the models are showing the exact opposite,that would just be them making themselves look rather foolish.

JCX BXC

pad199207 wrote: »

Indeed and thats fair enough however at the same time we have to accept that some models arent showing the Wow Factor upper airs previously being modeled.

Eh it depends, look at the UKMO. It would have been bizzare of some of those sub-15 uppers had come off anyway!

sryanbruen

To remind some how cold it can get in March, the lowest all-time March temperature in Ireland is -17.2c.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ireland's all-time minimum temperatures for each month of the year

January: -19.1c at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on the 16th in 1881

February: -17.8c at Mostrim, Co. Longford on the 7th in 1895

March: -17.2c at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on the 3rd in 1947

April: -7.7c at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on the 15th in 1892

May: -5.6c at Phoenix Park, Co. Dublin on the 4th in 1945 & Glenties, Co. Donegal on the 4th in 1979

June: -3.3c at Clonsast, Co. Offaly on the 1st in 1962

July: -0.3c at Mostrim, Co. Longford on the 8th in 1889

August: -2.7c at Rathdrum, Co. Wicklow on the 30th in 1964

September: -3.0c at Hospital, Co. Limerick on the 19th in 1986

October: -8.3c at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on the 31st in 1926

November: -11.5c at Clonroche, Co. Wexford on the 29th in 2010

December: -17.5c at Straide, Co. Mayo on the 25th in 2010

Originally sourced from

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme-mintemps.pdf

pad199207

Anyways another day of fantastic model watching. Just hope there isnt a moment when we have to go......,.

irishrover99

NoodleMc wrote: »

konman wrote: »

I was in argos today getting a couple of things for the garden and spotted a snow shovel. Been meaning to get one for year's, anyways the 2 guys at the pickup section had a good giggle at me buying a snow shovel. They obviously don't follow this thread ðŸ˜
I'm not expecting to get to use it next week either by the way.

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

Don't worry. Next year you can sell it as brand new

DOCARCH

Jumpinjames wrote: »

I’m checking boards now and there appears to have been a major downgrade regarding snow. I don’t get it... every year we are told that we need a classic easterly to deliver snow. This time when we do have this easterly flow coming from a bitter cold Russia and an SSW event, it still won’t deliver.

Who said it won't deliver?

Need the cold to get here first and then worry about the snow.

ZX7R

JCX BXC wrote: »

Eh it depends, look at the UKMO. It would have been bizzare of some of those sub-15 uppers had come off anyway!

I think people are over reading the charts, nit picking on details that really don't make a difference at the present time, no point thinking about snow till at least 24hours in advance.
I wonder could we see a warning for wind chill, it won't be nice working outside

irishrover99

JCX BXC wrote: »

The massively negetive posts surrounding MT's posts are in my opinion evidence of how some are genuinely desperately trying to dismiss chances of snow!

Rubbish.
We respect what the guy does and his knowledge but also have opinions based on years of not getting snow and generally something happening to prevent large amounts of snow fall.

I didn't see anyone slagging off his post BTW

NAGDEFI

-8 uppers will do fine. -13 was always a little on the high side.

2 less severe runs by the GFS and ECM in the short term. But they are only one run and we're 5 days out or so. We'll have fluctuations in the model runs.

JCX BXC

irishrover99 wrote: »

I didn't see anyone slagging off his post BTW

I never stated the contrary.

To be honest the general hostility here (not referring to you in particular) is disappointing, less than I've learned to expect and enjoy from the weather forum.

PukkaStukka

Weather forecast on BBC spoke of cold next week and a chance of snow for some, but made clear there is some in certainty as to who'll get what and the extent thereof.

NAGDEFI

I wouldn't expend too much energy looking at models. From experience you're wore out and can't enjoy the snow/ice when it comes.

Have a look at 4pm at UKMO and GFS 12 Z. Wait til 7pm when all 10 days of the 12 Z ECM are up.

Look at the GFS pub run before bed, have a look at the morning models before work in the am. Then get on with your life and be fresh and ready for the weather when it arrives.

You avoid endless negativity, point scoring and bickering.

George Sunsnow

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Weather forecast on BBC spoke of cold next week and a chance of snow for some, but made clear there is some in certainty as to who'll get what and the extent thereof.

Turn that on it’s head though
On a showery day in summer there’s also uncertainty as to where the showers will be but no risk of disruption
Different story with snow
No one is going to notice their summer weekday rain shower much
But if it dropped an inch of snow they would
Ergo that’s why the word uncertainty is increasingly being used
There arent and cannot be fine details until Sunday at the earliest ,there can only be theory

Oops69

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

you can rent it out next week to your neighbours for 20 euro an hour ... although my heart went out to the lad who set up a specialist snow goods shop in Blanchardstown in 2011 after the two bad winters ... he was back to selling carpets the next year ... maybe he kept some of his stock .

George Sunsnow

irishrover99 wrote: »

Rubbish.
We respect what the guy does and his knowledge but also have opinions based on years of not getting snow and generally something happening to prevent large amounts of snow fall.

I didn't see anyone slagging off his post BTW

How exactly does your years of not getting snow impact on the current synoptic
It’s the sweeping unsupported statements that are annoying some people here
Back up a dismissal of charts with theory

It’s very simple to me
Very simple
The flow is from the east
Longevity is locked in
Continental air has very low dew points you don’t need sub minus 10 850’s you just need either disturbances in the flow,low enough air pressure and or a sufficient difference between sst’s and 850 temps to gather up the fetch
If that can’t happen at various stages during a 2 week plus easterly,you may close down this forum during winter unless there’s a wind event
The source is artic so let’s be patient
Tardis rental is not available

torres9kop

Little does Alan Hughes know whats around the corner!!!
He just mentioned spring is in the air on tv3 am

beefburrito

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

Snow shovels are great for raking leaves and weeds onto in the garden, I use one sometimes with a leaf rake.
Hold snow shovel in one hand then rake the weeds onto it with the other and tip it into the wheelbarrow....

Irish Steve

Sky News now starting to ramp "the beast from the East", and talking of snow from Monday onwards. temperatures being discussed as falling significantly in the East (Of UK ) from Thursday.

And yes, as one of the people that mentioned 63 and 79, that's because (a) I can remember them, and (b), based on the subsequent knowledge that's been developed, my gut instinct is that the scenario that's still developing and evolving has the potential to bring similar conditions to those that were seen in those events.

63 was exceptional, we were tobogganing on frozen snow at a caravan park on the coast in South Devon, in an area that's normally described as the British Riviera, and I don't think there's been similar snow in that area since, and in 63 it lasted for close on 3 months.

We for sure don't want or need a snow event of that severity and duration here and now, as the economic implications would be significant, but the reality is that the recent SSW means that an outlier weather event is about to happen, and all we can do it take whatever comes, and deal with it accordingly.

I'd like to hope that the relevant emergency response services are making sure their contingency plans have at least been reviewed, in as much as there is (for me) the potential in this event for significant disruption of travel, distribution and even possibly energy supplies.

The adult in me has concerns for the vulnerable and at risk in that situation, the kid in me wants my kids and grandkids to have the rare fun that we had all those years ago, and it would be nice to see the (aluminium) 2 seater toboggan I made some 35 years ago get another proper outing, even on a gentle slope, in the right snow it was a flyer, and seeing it in use again would be nice.

The waiting will be hard, and this forum (and this thread) will probably break a few records, and maybe even the boards servers when it kicks off properly, but that's not the worst it could be.

beefburrito

Jayzus this new forecast from MT looks like an event to remember.

I'm after doing a lot of pruning lately and it could be possible my shrubs will be late flowering or won't flower at all.

Rooy

IMO we need to remember its only Wed morning , the cold is still 4-5 days away but looks locked in for next week. Its really going to be Sat/Sun before we have a more accurate idea of snow potential. Im happy enough to see the dry weather regardless ,feels like it has been miserable and wet for months.

munsterlegend

Irish Steve wrote: »

Sky News now starting to ramp "the beast from the East", and talking of snow from Monday onwards. temperatures being discussed as falling significantly in the East (Of UK ) from Thursday.

And yes, as one of the people that mentioned 63 and 79, that's because (a) I can remember them, and (b), based on the subsequent knowledge that's been developed, my gut instinct is that the scenario that's still developing and evolving has the potential to bring similar conditions to those that were seen in those events.

63 was exceptional, we were tobogganing on frozen snow at a caravan park on the coast in South Devon, in an area that's normally described as the British Riviera, and I don't think there's been similar snow in that area since, and in 63 it lasted for close on 3 months.

We for sure don't want or need a snow event of that severity and duration here and now, as the economic implications would be significant, but the reality is that the recent SSW means that an outlier weather event is about to happen, and all we can do it take whatever comes, and deal with it accordingly.

I'd like to hope that the relevant emergency response services are making sure their contingency plans have at least been reviewed, in as much as there is (for me) the potential in this event for significant disruption of travel, distribution and even possibly energy supplies.

The adult in me has concerns for the vulnerable and at risk in that situation, the kid in me wants my kids and grandkids to have the rare fun that we had all those years ago, and it would be nice to see the (aluminium) 2 seater toboggan I made some 35 years ago get another proper outing, even on a gentle slope, in the right snow it was a flyer, and seeing it in use again would be nice.

The waiting will be hard, and this forum (and this thread) will probably break a few records, and maybe even the boards servers when it kicks off properly, but that's not the worst it could be.

Now that's a ramp with a sensible word of caution!

pad199207

beefburrito wrote: »

Jayzus this new forecast from MT looks like an event to remember.

I'm after doing a lot of pruning lately and it could be possible my shrubs will be late flowering or won't flower at all.

I know thats another thing that concerning me. We have quite a few tropical palms in the garden since 2011. Now the majority of them are hardy down to -10c for a short period.

lawred2

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

all in your head... most people wouldn't know what a snow shovel is... sure where would they have seen one?

they'd have just seen some lad acting weird and shifty with some sort of garden tool hidden under his coat.

typhoony

on the 0z both ECM and GFS seem to be downgrading it down somewhat, not as severe during the day as previous runs were showing, pressure looks quite high over the country. east coast still looks on but I don't think the showers will penetrate that far west. basically this is just going to be an east coast event

the next few runs will be very informative, always thought we'd have to wait until Wednesday to get a clearer picture.

one thing is for sure this pattern looks locked in until early March, it could be mid-to late march before the temps go back to normal for the time of year

beefburrito

Irish Steve wrote: »

Sky News now starting to ramp "the beast from the East", and talking of snow from Monday onwards. temperatures being discussed as falling significantly in the East (Of UK ) from Thursday.

And yes, as one of the people that mentioned 63 and 79, that's because (a) I can remember them, and (b), based on the subsequent knowledge that's been developed, my gut instinct is that the scenario that's still developing and evolving has the potential to bring similar conditions to those that were seen in those events.

63 was exceptional, we were tobogganing on frozen snow at a caravan park on the coast in South Devon, in an area that's normally described as the British Riviera, and I don't think there's been similar snow in that area since, and in 63 it lasted for close on 3 months.

We for sure don't want or need a snow event of that severity and duration here and now, as the economic implications would be significant, but the reality is that the recent SSW means that an outlier weather event is about to happen, and all we can do it take whatever comes, and deal with it accordingly.

I'd like to hope that the relevant emergency response services are making sure their contingency plans have at least been reviewed, in as much as there is (for me) the potential in this event for significant disruption of travel, distribution and even possibly energy supplies.

The adult in me has concerns for the vulnerable and at risk in that situation, the kid in me wants my kids and grandkids to have the rare fun that we had all those years ago, and it would be nice to see the (aluminium) 2 seater toboggan I made some 35 years ago get another proper outing, even on a gentle slope, in the right snow it was a flyer, and seeing it in use again would be nice.

The waiting will be hard, and this forum (and this thread) will probably break a few records, and maybe even the boards servers when it kicks off properly, but that's not the worst it could be.

I remember using one of those metal sheets my dad had left over from putting a roof on the shed.
He curled up the front, drilled in two holes,then put a rope through the two holes on either side and a big granny knot underneath.
The rope was what we held onto.
We went to the top of the hill and sat into it,down we went,kids were arguing about who's next.

That was that cold spell in the early 80's

Happy days

Lumen

I've seen a few references in this thread* to a long duration of cold temps, but nothing very specific.

What are we talking here roughly, in terms of numbers of weeks? Presumably this is easier to forecast than snowfall.

Back above zero round the clock by mid-March?

I've a few hundred euro of trees and shrubs coming for planting with a three week lead time.

* I've read all 67 pages, honestly.