Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

beefburrito

Lumen wrote: »

I've seen a few references in this thread* to a long duration of cold temps, but nothing very specific.

What are we talking here roughly, in terms of numbers of weeks? Presumably this is easier to forecast than snowfall.

Back above zero round the clock by mid-March?

I've a few hundred euro of trees and shrubs coming for planting with a three week lead time.

* I've read all 67 pages, honestly.

If the trees are bareroot get them in fast....because you'll need a mini digger otherwise...

George Sunsnow

Lumen wrote: »

I've seen a few references in this thread* to a long duration of cold temps, but nothing very specific.

What are we talking here roughly, in terms of numbers of weeks? Presumably this is easier to forecast than snowfall.

Back above zero round the clock by mid-March?

I've a few hundred euro of trees and shrubs coming for planting with a three week lead time.

* I've read all 67 pages, honestly.

You won’t be given this information here
We are enthusiasts not professionals
I’d advise asking the met office but you won’t get a definite answer there either
The pattern does look locked in though in my opinion for at least two weeks not least because that’s the current UK met office outlook and they have gone into great detail on social media as to how the stratwarming has weakened and buckled the jet stream
Cold air is hard to move in normal circumstances even when under direct strong Atlantic attack
Never mind when the jet stream is weakened

Kamili

So its snowing in the south of France already... and sticking

Jakey Rolling

Out of interest what kind of average windspeeds are we likely to be seeing over the next week?

About 5 years ago when we had a protracted high over Ireland and UK (so cold temps and high heating demand), we had approx 2000MW installed wind generator capacity, but only 20MW average generation some days due to the light winds. No doubt our demands at that time were being supplied by UK nuclear stations. Interested to see what impact it will have this time round, though High not staying in place all week?

Lumen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You won’t be given this information here
We are enthusiasts not professionals
I’d advise asking the met office but you won’t get a definite answer there either
The pattern does look locked in though in my opinion for at least two weeks not least because that’s the current UK met office outlook and they have gone into great detail on social media as to how the stratwarming has weakened and buckled the jet stream
Cold air is hard to move in normal circumstances even when under direct strong Atlantic attack
Never mind when the jet stream is weakened

I'm not expecting predictions, just wondering what the "normal" duration is for this kind of SSW event, in broad terms.

lawred2

Kamili wrote: »

So its snowing in the south of France already... and sticking

is that unusual?

Elmer Blooker

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking Jan 1987 is the best comparator to what is forecast?

I hope not! Jan '87 was nothing more than a cold snap. The easterly blast was cut off very quickly just like turning off a tap as a gloomy high built resulting in a sudden thaw with temperatures above zero day and night. The SE of England kept the cold a little longer. I remember it when most here would be too young to remember, it was a waste of time and a major let down, a completely overrated cold spell!

Cantona's Collars

I was telling a colleague about the approaching cold and the answer I got was "is it to get cold? Sure it's nearly March". They are in for a bit of a surprise next week.

John.Icy

Positivity isn't going to make snow fall from the sky.

If people are viewing some of the charts as downgrades or not ideal then they shouldn't be censored because they aren't following status quo according to some posters. As GS said however, so long as they articulate with theory rather than the one line doom and gloom - that stuff I agree can stay away.

Looking at the GFS 0z and ECM 0z, yes I see them as dissapointing. High is too close and it's back to where we were a few days ago looking at +200 where charts get back to being snowy. We can't keep picking and choosing when to view the very far out charts as trends and when to ignore if they aren't in our favour.

UKMO still good. Afternoon runs will most likely bring upon more variation on a theme and hopefully we see the high shunt back North. Blocking still there, Cold still there. Just looks very very dry compared to a some of the runs the last few days.

munsterlegend

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I hope not! Jan '87 was nothing more than a cold snap. The easterly blast was cut off very quickly just like turning off a tap as a gloomy high built resulting in a sudden thaw with temperatures above zero day and night. The SE of England kept the cold a little longer. I remember it when most here would be too young to remember, it was a waste of time and a major let down, a completely overrated cold spell!

My memories are of a winter wonderland in Cork anyway which is rare. There was at 2-3 feet of snow with schools closed!

davidsr20

What time is the next run 12 is it?

Elmer Blooker

munsterlegend wrote: »

My memories are of a winter wonderland in Cork anyway which is rare. There was at 2-3 feet of snow with schools closed!

It was no 1982, '87 was about 3 sub zero days followed by anti cyclonic gloom and a lot of slush.
last word on 1987 mods

munsterlegend

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It was no 1982, '87 was about 3 sub zero days followed by anti cyclonic gloom and a lot of slush.
last word on 1987 mods

I have no memory of '82 though believe it was more epic in the east.

BabysCoffee

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

I got one in Argos too. The woman at the pick up counter made a holy show of me. Before I got to the counter I could hear her saying loudly "someone must be expecting snow" and having a right oul laugh. Seriously unprofessional to be commenting like this on someones purchase :mad::mad::mad:

But as I walked down the street it just looked like a regular work shovel

Lumi

Mod Note

There have been a spate of off topic, trollish posts and personal attacks overnight and again this morning.

This is a busy thread and likely to get much busier as the week progresses. As a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming from now on.

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed Trolls or call them out on thread - report & let the Mod team deal with it.


Thanks

stephenjmcd

Met seem to be going with cold weather early next week but nothing that seems extreme. Fingers crossed here anyway for something decent next week

gabeeg

The GFS has some amazing cold at the centre of the feature

George Sunsnow

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It was no 1982, '87 was about 3 sub zero days followed by anti cyclonic gloom and a lot of slush.
last word on 1987 mods

Ha I lived in Dublin in 87 and that spell lasted over a week with plenty heavy snow showers during the week and a snowstorm on the Friday that spread in from the northeast and spread southwest exiting the country in Kerry
River avoca in Arklow frozen over and covered in snow
Train to Arklow as it went through Glenealy rathdrum and wooden bridge felt like a trans siberian train
I had to walk home,the drifts in the fields were about 3 foot deep
Impressive only 5 years after jan 82

Anyway !

ace_irl

BabysCoffee wrote: »

I got one in Argos too. The woman at the pick up counter made a holy show of me. Before I got to the counter I could hear her saying loudly "someone must be expecting snow" and having a right oul laugh. Seriously unprofessional to be commenting like this on someones purchase :mad::mad::mad:

But as I walked down the street it just looked like a regular work shovel

My dad bought a snow shovel at the end of the summer in 2009. He looked like a crazy man buying it and we all laughed at him, but it was on sale and he figured he'd find a use for it. Fast forward to the heavy snow and he was the only one on our road with a snow shovel and he had to go around digging out peoples drive ways. He was delighted with himself.

dacogawa

That is quite some cold pool out to the east, looks bigger and a bit further north than the last run

lawred2

gabeeg wrote: »

The GFS has some amazing cold at the centre of the feature

Ireland is very close to the crossover of warmer and colder air there...

Elmer Blooker

NoodleMc wrote: »

I picked up a snow shovel in Argos yesterday too - felt like a right eejit! Couldn't get back to the car quick enough (not easy to hide a snow shovel under your coat)! Definitely heard a few giggles along the way. :eek:

You feel like an eejit? I bought a Lidl one in Jan 2011 expecting more snow after the previous month, seven years on I'm still waiting to use it.
I remember talking to the east European woman on the check out who thought it was hilarious that the schools shut in Ireland after what she would consider just an average snowfall.

gozunda

ace_irl wrote: »

My dad bought a snow shovel at the end of the summer in 2009. He looked like a crazy man buying it and we all laughed at him, but it was on sale and he figured he'd find a use for it. Fast forward to the heavy snow and he was the only one on our road with a snow shovel and he had to go around digging out peoples drive ways. He was delighted with himself.

Grain shovel does the same job and ye won't get laughed at down the local CO OP ....

highdef

So far, the GFS run rolling out is a marked improvement on the overnight run. Scandi High is a good bit further north, pressure over Ireland is a good 4/5mb lower (good for letting those Irish Sea streamers grow big), the core of the cold is not diving so much into Europe, colder air over Ireland. In addition, there is a slacker airflow over the British Isles much could allow streamers more time to develop as they will be moving slower. Also, there seems to be more hints of little lows developing to the east. I'd like to see this develop into a trend.

Overall (so far), a great run.....Hope I have not jinxed the end of the run!

beefburrito

lawred2 wrote: »

is that unusual?

Ask Tom Jones, maybe " it's cold outside"

dacogawa

GFS saying that the Irish sea 'should' start seeing some moisture on Wednesday, I wouldn't bank on percip until about 24 hours out but good to see there is something showing up on the charts. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bit of lake effect before that...

George Sunsnow

lawred2 wrote: »

Ireland is very close to the crossover of warmer and colder air there...

That doesn’t matter
The flow is from the east
The 06Z is continuing to do the obvious and bringing closer features from the east in this locked in east flow
Don’t bother looking too far west
It’s only a matter of time before disturbances develop in the Baltic travel west gathering energy in the North Sea and eventually in the Irish Sea

If you fly a plane from Moscow heading for Dublin and you have enough fuel you eventually land in Dublin
It is getting that simple

beefburrito

gozunda wrote: »

Grain shovel does the same job and he won't get laughed at down the local CO OP ....

Did you ever see the scene in "It's a wonderful life" where the kids sit on the grain shovel and slide down the hill on it,they go fast I tried it myself.

Ive a big grain shovel, I know a lovely hill in the Burren,where there's a valley.

If it snows I'll give it a go.....

Jakey Rolling

Jakey Rolling wrote: »

Out of interest what kind of average windspeeds are we likely to be seeing over the next week?

About 5 years ago when we had a protracted high over Ireland and UK (so cold temps and high heating demand), we had approx 2000MW installed wind generator capacity, but only 20MW average generation some days due to the light winds. No doubt our demands at that time were being supplied by UK nuclear stations. Interested to see what impact it will have this time round, though High not staying in place all week?

Actually, to answer my own question, take a look at the EirGrid Generation and Demand Dashboard

Their predictions seem to be fairly accurate if their historical data is to be believed.
Current installed capacity 3000MW+, down as low as 59MW on 5th Feb, currently 200W.
Predictions for next week around 1500-2000MW, so assume they expect moderate winds.

Cantona's Collars

Any bit of snow and I'm going to sit and watch one of my mates try to get his van out of his drive. It was hilarious the last time we had snow. Van in first, revving the Sh1te out of it and sliding everywhere,then losing the plot altogether as an old woman in a Micra drove past. Needless to say doors were slammed and the van was abandoned sideways across the drive.
Anyhow,it would be nice to see any kind of white stuff down my way,the last bit fell literally 2 miles away while we got cold rain.