Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

RobertKK

The CFS model which is the longer term forecast model, is predicting a colder than average March and April for Europe.

People worried about getting no snow...wait and see what happens. It reminds me of my father and the cold of 1947, he always said that this easterly wind started and it was dry and very cold initially, he spent those dry days bringing firework home from the fields and building up supplies and they had the firewood in before the snow arrives.
The concern over ‘will it snow’ and the concern it won’t by some is futile.
I expect snow here in Kilkenny, have been receiving snow all winter, and always gets something from an easterly eventually.

I see Joanna Donnelly was asked yesterday if excitement was growing in Met Eireann, she said “Too many grumpy old men for excitement 😂 more of an “oh no” than an “oh yes”. We need to think of the impact on elderly, farm animals, transport safety etc. It’s really not all fun and games I’m afraid”.

Cantona's Collars

Well I've an appointment with a chainsaw now,no harm in stocking up on firewood just in case. I'd rather have it than be looking for it.

highdef

Jesus, this latest GFS run is getting better and better as more frames become viewable. It wants to develop a small enough low pressure just to the east of Scotland on Thursday of next week which then moves in a south south west direction and deepens quite significantly. If this were to occur, we would likely see blizzards in many parts of the country. The eastern half of the country would be pummelled. It may well not happen at all but with the expected synoptics, it's quite plausible.

The best thing about any lows forming in our vicinity is that there is no real warmth so we don't have to worry about warm sectors.

Absolutely stunning charts.

Finally, none of this will happen because I've just enquired about getting one of Hecht shovels on Donedeal......if ever there was something that could jinx all this, it's buying a snow shovel!

Reckless Abandonment

CFS is about as useful as a post man predicting the weather.

gabeeg

highdef wrote: »

Finally, none of this will happen because I've just enquired about getting one of Hecht shovels on Donedeal......if ever there was something that could jinx all this, it's buying a snow shovel!

That is frankly reckless behaviour

Gaoth Laidir

We need that high to shift a bit northwest/north or the inversion will dampen convection. Surprisingly, the 00Z runs shows the GFS actually 3-4 degrees WARMER than the ECM, GEM and ICON at the 700 hPa level (-14 versus about -17 °C), but even so, these 3 still show a strong inversion limiting convection to around that level (slightly higher given the very high low-level lapse rate and hence strong updrafts). It looks like the core of the returning cold jet from the northeast heads a little too far to our southeast (Germany/France) to allow deep convection, so at the moment things are looking like light snow showers for us, but a slight northeast turn and longer sea-fetch could beef them up a bit. Still a very dry airmass with overall low precipitation totals for the next 7 days at least.

pad199207

A bloody great bloody run!

pad199207

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We need that high to shift a bit northwest/north or the inversion will dampen convection. Surprisingly, the 00Z runs shows the GFS actually 3-4 degrees WARMER than the ECM, GEM and ICON at the 700 hPa level (-14 versus about -17 °C), but even so, these 3 still show a strong inversion limiting convection to around that level (slightly higher given the very high low-level lapse rate and hence strong updrafts). It looks like the core of the returning cold jet from the northeast heads a little too far to our southeast (Germany/France) to allow deep convection, so at the moment things are looking like light snow showers for us, but a slight northeast turn and longer sea-fetch could beef them up a bit. Still a very dry airmass with overall low precipitation totals for the next 7 days at least.

While your knowledge is absolutely second to none GL should we not wait till we get the cold in and then worry about the nitty gritty details?:D

highdef

Indeed, and if that snowstorm did actually materialise, I would be fine with a breakdown to milder weather a few days later. I will have got my fix at that stage

lawred2

why have people stopped posting the graphics?

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

While your knowledge is absolutely second to none GL should we not wait till we get the cold in and then worry about the nitty gritty details?:D

Now now, we need these posts from Gaoth Laidir so that some of us (perhaps that includes me this morning) going overboard by not having the detailed knowledge he has :P

But I do agree somewhat that the nitty gritty being forecasted right now is unlikely to pan out exactly as it is being shown now.

Still, the more valuable input, the better. We can all learn a thing or two from Gaoth Laidir but sometimes experience and local knowledge can and does go against what the data says will fall from the sky.

highdef

I wouldn't be too disheartened by the end part of the GFS run (which shows temperatures countrywide into double digits) as anything after 240 is a bit of a random lottery as to what is forecast. 168 - 240 is never to trusted as gospel either but is usually a bit better as it's higher resolution.

Rebelbrowser

beefburrito wrote: »

gozunda wrote: »

Grain shovel does the same job and he won't get laughed at down the local CO OP ....

Did you ever see the scene in "It's a wonderful life" where the kids sit on the grain shovel and slide down the hill on it,they go fast I tried it myself.

Ive a big grain shovel, I know a lovely hill in the Burren,where there's a valley.

If it snows I'll give it a go.....

In Its a Wonderful Life that did end with a boy nearly drowning and his brother losing hearing in one ear trying to rescue him!

Storm 10

What are the chances of Snow making it over to the West

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

While your knowledge is absolutely second to none GL should we not wait till we get the cold in and then worry about the nitty gritty details?:D

I wouldn't call then nitty gritty details. The broad large-scale setup can indicate a lot, e.g. the rough position of the upper high and trough, etc. With this comes certain givens, such as a strong inversion within a 1050-hPa low. Obviously a slight sift either way will dictate the strength of the inversion, but positionwise there is very good agreement in the synoptic stations up to Monday at least. After that were looking for small scale features to modify the large scale flow.

TheMilkyPirate

Any chance of a technical/chart thread for this? I've just skimmed through 3 pages of ****e with about 4 decent posts in it.

highdef

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Any chance of a technical/chart thread for this? I've just skimmed through 3 pages of ****e with about 4 decent posts in it.

I reckon that could be a good idea. Maybe keep this thread for chit chat and have a new thread for technical analysis and charts up to but not beyond FI. The beginning of the cold spell is now outside of FI so it may well be time for an in-depth thread.

Mods?

jay28

I think the models are already being discussed on the usual
FI thread? No?

ninebeanrows

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

If this member verified........................

beefburrito

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In Its a Wonderful Life that did end with a boy nearly drowning and his brother losing hearing in one ear trying to rescue him!

Yes that's the scene,actually you can get it in color now.

But I wouldn't advise anybody to do it into a pond or lake, OK anyone who's going to slide down a hill on a grain shovel,be careful and do so at your own risk...

Also if you decide to sit on a metal disc the same precautions are to be taken into consideration.

Another funny one was the national lampoons Christmas movie, when they went to a local hill and slid down it....

jasper100

Weathercheck wrote: »

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

If this member verified........................

Game over as usual.

lucernarian

John.Icy wrote: »

Positivity isn't going to make snow fall from the sky.

If people are viewing some of the charts as downgrades or not ideal then they shouldn't be censored because they aren't following status quo according to some posters. As GS said however, so long as they articulate with theory rather than the one line doom and gloom - that stuff I agree can stay away.

Looking at the GFS 0z and ECM 0z, yes I see them as dissapointing. High is too close and it's back to where we were a few days ago looking at +200 where charts get back to being snowy. We can't keep picking and choosing when to view the very far out charts as trends and when to ignore if they aren't in our favour.

UKMO still good. Afternoon runs will most likely bring upon more variation on a theme and hopefully we see the high shunt back North. Blocking still there, Cold still there. Just looks very very dry compared to a some of the runs the last few days.

Post of the day so far IMO.

Many of the experts here are only elaborating on the charts they like the most, rather than looking at all the outcomes good or bad. I've gotten indifference or worse from flagging the issue of the HP building over Ireland, and all I get is "oh but it rained in Dublin at 1035 hPa. It's getting hard to have a mature discussion here.

Before anyone says it, it's not that I'm ignoring the good charts, I definitely am not. I like forecasting, not picking and choosing charts to get the most thanks. Forecasts like all these are uncommon and a treat to enjoy (and forecast something apart from sun and showers).

Pangea

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If you fly a plane from Moscow heading for Dublin and you have enough fuel you eventually land in Dublin
It is getting that simple

Until some drunk causes an emergency landing in Berlin that is..

Tabnabs

This thread is living up to the usual standards, the glass half empty folks and the glass half full people.



Hold tight folks, it's not called a rollercoaster for nothing!

munsterlegend

Highly unlikely. The met office in the UK would have some answering to do if that transpired.

Macy0161

Weathercheck wrote: »

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

Much as I love snow, I don't see a period of cold, but bright and dry weather, as the worst possible outcome to be honest!

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

If this member verified........................

Would that be a high with sunshine or cloudy gloom?

highdef

jay28 wrote: »

I think the models are already being discussed on the usual
FI thread? No?

Yes but I'm talking about technical analysis and charts on a thread within the reliable timeframe, ie: outside/before FI

dacogawa

Weathercheck wrote: »

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

If this member verified........................

I prefer version no.4 to version no.18

Elmer Blooker

lucernarian wrote: »

Post of the day so far IMO.

Many of the experts here are only elaborating on the charts they like the most, rather than looking at all the outcomes good or bad. I've gotten indifference or worse from flagging the issue of the HP building over Ireland, and all I get is "oh but it rained in Dublin at 1035 hPa. It's getting hard to have a mature discussion here.

Before anyone says it, it's not that I'm ignoring the good charts, I definitely am not. I like forecasting, not picking and choosing charts to get the most thanks. Forecasts like all these are uncommon and a treat to enjoy (and forecast something apart from sun and showers).

Condescending post of the day so far IMO.