Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

munsterlegend

Met Eireann not expecting anything too severe judging by their quote in this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/batten-down-the-tulips-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-may-bring-snow-1.3400074?mode=amp

Rebelbrowser

lucernarian wrote: »

Post of the day so far IMO.

Many of the experts here are only elaborating on the charts they like the most, rather than looking at all the outcomes good or bad. I've gotten indifference or worse from flagging the issue of the HP building over Ireland, and all I get is "oh but it rained in Dublin at 1035 hPa. It's getting hard to have a mature discussion here.

Before anyone says it, it's not that I'm ignoring the good charts, I definitely am not. I like forecasting, not picking and choosing charts to get the most thanks. Forecasts like all these are uncommon and a treat to enjoy (and forecast something apart from sun and showers).

Yeah, I'm going to give up expressing views for a while. I gave some views yesterday morning I'd like to delete ideally at this stage. This could still be snowy and wonderful but equally could just be a bit cooler than normal with no snow. I must say that correlation between upper temps and 2m temps still confuses me. I thought the charts I was seeing yesterday (and even some today) would mean temps not going above zero even in day time but that looks wide of the mark. I think I'll leave it to the more knowledgeable guys on here for now....

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote: »

Not an inspiring set of 6z GFS ensembles...

If this member verified........................

I had a look at all 20 runs, only 12, 13, 18 and 19 look particularly appaling. One of those had the northern jet run through the ridging from Siberia, which I can't see happening after a historic SSW building up such a strong block.

The others are pretty consistent about bringing in cold, easterly air with surface pressure below 1020 hPA, featuring organised ppn and shortwaves.

gabeeg

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah, I'm going to give up expressing views for a while. I gave some views yesterday morning I'd like to delete ideally at this stage. This could still be snowy and wonderful but equally could just be a bit cooler than normal with no snow. I must say that correlation between upper temps and 2m temps still confuses me. I thought the charts I was seeing yesterday (and even some today) would mean temps not going above zero even in day time but that looks wide of the mark. I think I'll leave it to the more knowledgeable guys on here for now....

To the best of my knowledge - at this time of year you can typically add about 10c or 11c to the 850 temps to get an idea of what the max daytime temps wil be.

So if we get -12s in, then there's your ice day

kod87

amazing how the mood on here turned apocalyptic after WC posts one not so good ensemble member, calm down people

Gaoth Laidir

I don't get why we are discussing next week in two separate threads (this one and the FI). Maybe this one shouldn't have been started until <120 hrs (today or tomorrow).

BLIZZARD7

Not wide of the mark @rebelbrowser - uppers of below -11c or -12c could result in an Ice day.

I think everyone is happy with all opinions to be expressed as long as some effort to back up with evidence is made, rather than 'its only going to rain in Dublin' or 'it will snow every day next week'.

It's a fluid developing situation and one which the models don't have a firm grasp on beyond about Monday, if they did we wouldn't still be seeing changes. A cold week is a certainty for me at this stage, how cold and how snowy won't be known for sure until the weekend at the earliest.

The UK met office are steadfast in this being quite a significant cold spell by the way.

BLIZZARD7

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get why we are discussing next week in two separate threads (this one and the FI). Maybe this one shouldn't have been started until <120 hrs (today or tomorrow).

Well personally I'm posting in there because there's a lot of people in here who don't understand the concept of FI and well I dont think showing blizzards at +200hrs will add much to this discussion at this point.

pauldry

Yes but the trend isnt this member

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get why we are discussing next week in two separate threads (this one and the FI). Maybe this one shouldn't have been started until <120 hrs (today or tomorrow).

Because FI is a technical thread only and it was starting to get overwhelmed with general chat, which is what this thread is for.

pauldry

personally I think the most likely situation to develop will be one where we start off cold fine and frosty with wintry showers appearing off our East coast and moving further inland as the week progresses.

Parts of the West will be dry until the end of next week at least

Thats welcome IMO after 7 months rain

snowstorm445

pad199207 wrote: »

Would that be a high with sunshine or cloudy gloom?

Probably like this week, mostly clear and very cold at night. No precipitation at all though and uppers not that great.

Tbh the presence of this in some of the ensemble members has me worried a bit, it wasn’t there yesterday IIRC (or not to the same extent). At 5 days away this is a possibility (especially given the failure rate of easterlies) and maybe the ENS have picked up on it. Something to be wary of over the coming few days.

Apart from that models look fine so far this morning, easterly all set to go in 5 days time.

igCorcaigh

ME:

Monday & Tuesday:
Very cold for the time of year with daytime temperatures in the low single figures inland, and around 5 or 6 degrees on coasts. There is an increased threat of wintry precipitation in the form of showers. Frosty nights with sub-zero temperatures will continue.

Seems about right then?

munsterlegend

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Not wide of the mark @rebelbrowser - uppers of below -11c or -12c could result in an Ice day.

I think everyone is happy with all opinions to be expressed as long as some effort to back up with evidence is made, rather than 'its only going to rain in Dublin' or 'it will snow every day next week'.

It's a fluid developing situation and one which the models don't have a firm grasp on beyond about Monday, if they did we wouldn't still be seeing changes. A cold week is a certainty for me at this stage, how cold and how snowy won't be known for sure until the weekend at the earliest.

The UK met office are steadfast in this being quite a significant cold spell by the way.

The met office in the uk have been steadfast in wintry conditions in the uk for next week for over 2 weeks now. This bodes well for us hopefully and to be fair they are the professionals who have far more resources than us.

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

The met office in the uk have been steadfast in wintry conditions in the uk for next week for over 2 weeks now. This bodes well for us hopefully and to be fair they are the professionals who have far more resources than us.

There's a big difference between what much of the UK is likely to get and what we could get, much further west from the cold core, hence their more bullish approach.

George Sunsnow

I’m not too concerned
If the wind is from the east,you advect from the east whether true E or NE or SE and as the flow reaches the mid Atlantic even less concerned

So if snow piles up in the UK,your surface air advecting out of there will be so cold such that snow will be what falls out of the sky when anything does
I’m tired of this over analysis and toys out of the pram
We are looking at 2 weeks or more of an artic flow so I am expecting snow and in some lucky areas at times during that,significant snow

JFKIRELAND

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

What models are ME looking at to come up with this statement... Is this the ECMWF trend?

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There's a big difference between what much of the UK is likely to get and what we could get, much further west from the cold core, hence their more bullish approach.

I accept that but at least they don't believe this to be some phantom easterly which has happened too many times to mention on the models.

sdanseo

This thread needs to be viewed in context which at this timeframe is a friendly debate and “what if” not unlike the FI thread. Snow is almost impossible to nail at +48hrs let alone +168.

It’ll be cold next week, that’s where certainty ends

Nettle Soup

I have a fairly simple approach to all this. I do love cold weather. I find it visually mesmerising. I love hailstones, sleet, snow, even graupel. I love ice on the car when I go outside. I even like driving in icy conditions - I see it as a challenge to be overcome (I actually deliberately taught myself ice driving skills with an old banger Peugeot many years ago). I also love hill walking, especially in wintry conditions and snow. Perhaps I have read too many Shackleton/Crean books.

Today is an absolutely amazing day. It's crisp cold and dry with blue skies. It really lifts the spirits. The past few days have been lovely and the forecast is for more of the same. I am looking forward to the Beast from the East next week. I really am. I was almost high earlier this week thinking about it and watching the excitement here. But even if the Beast does not gobble us up in Galway, I will still thoroughly enjoy it. Hope springs eternal and longterm cold conditions are always exciting. Extreme weather is exciting. I dont really care now about Upgrades/Downgrades as long as we get dry/cold weather or snowy/cold weather. I do and will enjoy looking at all the models even if I don't understand half of what I am seeing.

The thing is that we will definitely get a beautiful cold spell next week. The reports from around Europe will be fascinating even if the severity in Ireland is still unknown. And when it ends, we are in March and the clocks will soon be changing which means 6 months of more and more light. It's all good. A lot to look forward to.

If it does not snow out west, so be it, I can always get in the car and go to the snow. I remember climbing Galtymore (917m) in Dec 2010 and there
was 4 inches of pure ice jutting horizontally from the old metal cross. It was spectacular.

Enjoy!

esposito

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

What models are ME looking at to come up with this statement... Is this the ECMWF trend?

That’s bizarre. There is no evidence on current guidance about this.

Gonzo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There's a big difference between what much of the UK is likely to get and what we could get, much further west from the cold core, hence their more bullish approach.

I would agree with this, the mainland UK and Ireland can be worlds apart when it comes to snow depths and the effects from an easterly. The south-east UK is nearly 1/3 of the way towards eastern Europe from our end, they are much closer to the action than we are. The chances of them seeing lower temperatures, a longer period of cold, less Atlantic influence and higher chances of snow can be considerably higher than us, and always has been.

Some of the charts here over the past 4 days have been sensational but those sensational charts are more like dream charts, and are very unlikely to be as good as that in reality.

It looks definite we will get cold weather, but as for snow or snow depths, nobody really knows yet.

I would be more than happy for 2 days of cold weather with some snow showers and a few cm on the ground, nothing sensational about that.

Met Eireann have to play this one cautiously. The real fun still looks close to a week away and as we've all seen the charts chopping and changing 4 times per day and then there is the different models. Right now we are still struggling to see when the cold will start, what precise angle it will hit us from, how long will it last.

Once all that is nailed in, then a possible forecast for snow may be possible to look at closer to next Monday. The charts will continue to chop and change, more downgrades and upgrades are likely. We should have a much clearer picture of what is coming our way this weekend.

optiplex780

This is more disappointing than that time time the thread on the live demolition of a ground safe amounted to nothing.

Kermit.de.frog

Some excellent charts this morning for those who want to see snow and bitterly cold weather.

Don't get hung up on changes every 6 hours in different models, rather look at the overall trends.

It is certainly going to get very cold from Sunday onward and likely there will be snowfall, how significant is too early to say. We could get significant falls of snow as well as snow showers. Or snowfall might not be significant.

Either way very much on track for an exceptional period of weather with widespread frost and ice also on the cards.

The cold is coming...



I'll come back to this this evening after the 12 pm forecast output.

Strangegravy

Big pool of cold air building up to our east in a 120hr - 144hr timeline - Check

Easterly-ish wind setting itself up to bring that cold towards us - Check

Atlantic staying reasonably quiet and not trying to push said easterly back into Europe - Check

So we're all good at the moment then!

Everything after 144hrs (and sometimes at 144hrs!) is all Fantasy Island and only there for our amusement or to get a possible ROUGH idea for trends - that includes good OR bad charts.

Remember even if everything looks absolutely perfect, it STILL might not snow over your house! So just take it as it's looking like very cold weather is possible next week, and see what develops as we go along.

Just enjoy the rollercoaster as we say around here; and believe me it's ALWAYS a rollercoaster.

Don't get too hung up on it, good or bad, what will happen will happen; we can't control the weather at the end of the day, just the way we react to it.

TheMilkyPirate

The charts we are seeing now are still great and we would give our right arm for them most winters. They just don't look as good as the frankly bizarre charts being churned out a couple days ago.

We are on the cusp of an easterly people need to cheer up. For all we know it could get even better again.

Soccarboy11

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some excellent charts this morning for those who want to see snow and bitterly cold weather.

Don't get hung up on changes every 6 hours in different models, rather look at the overall trends.

It is certainly going to get very cold from Sunday onward and likely there will be snowfall, how significant is too early to say. We could get significant falls of snow as well as snow showers. Or snowfall might not be significant.

Either way very much on track for an exceptional period of weather with widespread frost and ice also on the cards.

It's coming...



I'll come back to this this evening after the 12 pm forecast output.

Looks like a monster crawling across northern europe

giveitholly

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

What models are ME looking at to come up with this statement... Is this the ECMWF trend?

Don't remember her say anything about milder conditions

DellyBelly

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Eireann not expecting anything too severe judging by their quote in this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/batten-down-the-tulips-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-may-bring-snow-1.3400074?mode=amp

I read that earlier and hope they are correct. We will have to wait and see though.

George Sunsnow

It would be nice if people stopped trying to compare this set up with other failed marginal set up
It’s stupid

For clarity here’s the feed again
Comparing that to other failed easterlys and saying the UK gets it all is ridiculous

https://twitter.com/pauldazm69/status/966072574059958272