Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Kermit.de.frog

This is the ECM average at 120 hrs. Extraordinary by any standard.




Later.

Liffey4A

giveitholly wrote: »

Don't remember her say anything about milder conditions

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

Can't see how they are forecasting milder weather next week, if anything it looks to get colder?

Gonzo

Liffey4A wrote: »

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

Can't see how they are forecasting milder weather next week, if anything it looks to get colder?

for now I would ignore that, the middle of next week could still be very cold and wintry. That is still a whole week away.

The only thing that looks certain over the next 3 days is dry conditions and lower temperatures. I can feel the nip in the air already compared to the mild of the past 3 days. Temperatures will struggle to get past 5C during this weekend. Monday onward will become clearer over this weekend.

Cantona's Collars

Liffey4A wrote: »

Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

Can't see how they are forecasting milder weather next week, if anything it looks to get colder?

I have little faith in ME forecasts lately,they say one thing and then in the sum up and on screen graphics something else. If anyone was going by that they'd have to bring a selection of clothes out to cover all eventualities. I find the UKMO much more reliable.

George Sunsnow

Susan Powell’s lunchtime forecast on bbc one had snow in the east and south east and south of Ireland on her map for next week for the first time today

She did say uncertainty as to whether the coldest of the air goes across the UK or into France depending on the orientation of the high
So that bit is not resolved yet

I wouldn’t expect a high to sink down onto cold air to the south of it though

Jumpinjames

What the hell happened in the last few hours? Just read a piece from the Irish Times where Met Eireann are saying this spell wont be severe and that they are expecting milder weather next week. Game over. I knew it I just knew it. Our national weather agency would not say that if they didn’t think it.

joe40

I know it is still far out but what sort of temperatures are people expecting at this stage. The reason I ask is that during the severe cold of 2010/2011 the external water pipe at home froze - a week without water is no fun believe me. This was with overnight temp of around -12C. I know things are still open to change but are such temperatures a reasonable possibility in Donegal. -5C, -6C temp should be ok but extreme cold might be problematic

The Specialist

Jumpinjames wrote: »

What the hell happened in the last few hours? Just read a piece from the Irish Times where Met Eireann are saying this spell wont be severe and that they are expecting milder weather next week. Game over. I knew it I just knew it. Our national weather agency would not say that if they didn’t think it.

Met Eireann can barely get the forecast for 2 days ahead right, nevermind next week. And they certainly aren't going to start ramping an event which is still nearly a week away at the moment.

esposito

Jumpinjames wrote: »

What the hell happened in the last few hours? Just read a piece from the Irish Times where Met Eireann are saying this spell wont be severe and that they are expecting milder weather next week. Game over. I knew it I just knew it. Our national weather agency would not say that if they didn’t think it.

Don’t mind that article. If anything it’s looking to get progressively colder from midweek next week.

A bizzare statement (If she even said it at all)

Gonzo

Jumpinjames wrote: »

What the hell happened in the last few hours? Just read a piece from the Irish Times where Met Eireann are saying this spell wont be severe and that they are expecting milder weather next week. Game over. I knew it I just knew it. Our national weather agency would not say that if they didn’t think it.

I wouldn't judge any article in any newspaper.

If you look at Met Eireann's website, they are only going as far as Monday or Tuesday with a guess of what might happen. they updated this just 30 minutes ago. What is written below is about as much as they can confidently say right now.

from Met Eireann.
Sunday:
Sunny skies look set to return for Sunday but a cold day for most in a light to moderate easterly breeze. Highs of just 4 to 7 degrees. Fine and clear for Sunday night with a widespread sharp to severe frost. Light easterly breezes.

Monday & Tuesday:
Very cold for the time of year with daytime temperatures in the low single figures inland, and around 5 or 6 degrees on coasts. There is an increased threat of wintry precipitation in the form of showers. Frosty nights with sub-zero temperatures will continue.

BLIZZARD7

joe40 wrote: »

I know it is still far out but what sort of temperatures are people expecting at this stage. The reason I ask is that during the severe cold of 2010/2011 the external water pipe at home froze - a week without water is no fun believe me. This was with overnight temp of around -12C. I know things are still open to change but are such temperatures a reasonable possibility in Donegal. -5C, -6C temp should be ok but extreme cold might be problematic

Too far out to know for sure but currently looks like lows in the -4c to -8c range. Any snow over and slack winds could drop this a good bit though. Nobody can tell you for sure yet, it is within the realms of possibity though.

Jumpinjames

esposito wrote: »

Don’t mind that article. If anything it’s looking to get progressively colder from midweek next week.

A bizzare statement (If she even said it at all)

Well she is quoted as saying that and I see no reason why a journo would put that quote in for the sake of it. Anyway I’m still keeping the faith.

sryanbruen

Jumpinjames wrote: »

a journo would put that quote in for the sake of it.

To get money.

Cork981

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Well she is quoted as saying that and I see no reason why a journo would put that quote in for the sake of it. Anyway I’m still keeping the faith.

Is this the article your talking about ?

“Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

Met Éireann’s long-range forecast for Monday and Tuesday says: “Very cold for the time of year with daytime temperatures in the low single figures inland, and around 5 or 6 degrees on coasts. There is an increased threat of wintry precipitation in the form of showers. Frosty nights with sub-zero temperatures will continue.””

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/batten-down-the-tulips-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-may-bring-snow-1.3400074

The Specialist

Cork981 wrote: »

Is this the article your talking about ?

“Forecaster Liz Gavin said there is an “increased chance of wintery precipitation” next week especially in eastern areas. This could fall as snow or sleet.

She added though that the cold snap may be relatively short lived with milder conditions setting in from the middle of next week.

Met Éireann’s long-range forecast for Monday and Tuesday says: “Very cold for the time of year with daytime temperatures in the low single figures inland, and around 5 or 6 degrees on coasts. There is an increased threat of wintry precipitation in the form of showers. Frosty nights with sub-zero temperatures will continue.””

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/batten-down-the-tulips-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-may-bring-snow-1.3400074

Something tells me Met Eireann may be viewing the charts in reverse

wakka12

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Looks like a monster crawling across northern europe

Do those charts mean it'll also be snowing in places like venice and rome and southern french cities?

andre2010

Im on Windy.com and they are also suggesting that there is a change in wind direction from mid next week killing off the easterly.

Dont get me wrong, i would love a big snow, but i think we are building up our hopes here only to be disappointed again

Gaoth Laidir

It really makes no difference whatsoever what Met Éireann or the Met Office are saying this stage about next week. The weather will do what it will do regardless. Patience is required.

ch750536

To be fair, like she said, that may happen.

Franz Von Peppercorn

It’s an odd thing to say. The easterly may break down but the Atlantic doesn’t look like getting in.

Oneiric 3

Current temps over the NE Europa region.



Colder air mass, originating in the Arctic, now setting up over the region and set to intensify over the next couple of days as it meanders over the area before getting pushed westwards.

Larbre34

Don't forget Met Éireann will be factoring in historical outcomes and breakdowns are more normal than this deep easterly becoming entrenched. Besides they have to hedge until its a near certainty, as i said a few days back, there is a lot of credibility at stake following a perceived crying of wolf during the autumn storm season.

The trend is your friend.

sideswipe

andre2010 wrote: »

Im on Windy.com and they are also suggesting that there is a change in wind direction from mid next week killing off the easterly.

Dont get me wrong, i would love a big snow, but i think we are building up our hopes here only to be disappointed again

Yr.no is the same- north westerly winds and temps rebounding.

gerrybhoy

My young nephew is in St Petersburg for the Celtic game tomorrow was on the phone to me earlier saying he's never felt cold like it,around -10 but feels a lot colder :eek: place is like an ice rink,all frozen

bnt

wakka12 wrote: »

Do those charts mean it'll also be snowing in places like venice and rome and southern french cities?

According to snow forecasts here, it's quite possible Venice will get some next Monday, and Rome on Tuesday. The former Yugoslavia, on the other hand ... they're going to get it, and then some. :eek:

Cork Boy 53

OK maybe my memory is playing tricks on me but I do recall that we had very cold dry weather with an easterly airflow which lasted for 3 weeks or so in February sometime in the 80s maybe 1985. Does anyone remember that?

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really makes no difference whatsoever what Met Éireann or the Met Office are saying this stage about next week. The weather will do what it will do regardless. Patience is required.

True the weather will do what it ultimately chooses. However people do rely on what they say and place value on it. Met Eireann probably for good reason stay usually within 5-7 days in any forecast unlike the uk met office who give a stab at it.

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

OK maybe my memory is playing tricks on me but I do recall that we had very cold dry weather with an easterly airflow which lasted for 3 weeks or so in February sometime in the 80s maybe 1985. Does anyone remember that?

It was 1986. February 1986 was an extremely cold and dry month. It was the first of two exceptionally (and unusually) dry months of 1986 - the other being September. Many places had less than 10mm of rainfall throughout the month. The Irish Mean Temperature for the month was -0.5c which is -5.8c below the 1981-2010 average for February. However, this exceptional dry and cold weather came at the cost of little to no snow.

It must have been a very boring and raw month.

DOCARCH

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

OK maybe my memory is playing tricks on me but I do recall that we had very cold dry weather with an easterly airflow which lasted for 3 weeks or so in February sometime in the 80s maybe 1985. Does anyone remember that?

I do!

Could have been 85, or 86, or 87?

Seemed to go on forever!

Weeks of dry cold gloom with just the odd bit of snizzle from time to time.

Edit: I see Sryan's post above....86 sounds right.

Rougies

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

OK maybe my memory is playing tricks on me but I do recall that we had very cold dry weather with an easterly airflow which lasted for 3 weeks or so in February sometime in the 80s maybe 1985. Does anyone remember that?

There was an easterly like that somewhere around the early/mid nineties. I remember cycling to school into a bitter easterly wind for days on end, dull, overcast and not a flake of snow. Maybe syran could nail the year down, possibly 93/94?