Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

Sorry Rougies but I'm struggling to find something you describe around this period of the time, is there any particular month you can remember it from?

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Maybe Feb 1991 was snowless in your neck of the woods?

Definitely somewhere between 1992 and 1998 as that's when I was cycling to secondary school

My initial thoughts were Feb '93 or '94 , but it mightn't have been February at all

I'll have a look through the monthly bulletins myself later to get some closure on this, I didn't imagine it :pac:

Saganist

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Icon 12Z not looking to bad at 10pm Monday.. -8's over half the country (still gotta figure out how to attach these images correctly!)

If you click on the little floppy disk icon above the still, you will get a direct link from meteociel's site to put into the picture attachment icon on your post.

Hope that helps. Sorry for off-topic.

Villain

That UKMO dive south is not good to see but GFS looking good again

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Great forecast from the UK met office there - shows good confidence in the deep cold sweeping in, while we are at the end of the line it's looking good for Eastern areas, nice little hints at potential troughs/features in the flow for later into the week.

Yes. In UKMO we trust:D Risk of significant snow;snow from any direction. Also temperatures barely making it above freezing- not quite as cold as 1987. What's not to like... Great forecast. I think it's nailed on for cold weather now. Snow is not a guarantee, but the chances of at least some snow during next week are high. Significant snowfall is always going to be harder to get in Ireland. So we need to keep in mind where exactly(the south east of england) he is talking about when he mentions that.

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

Definitely somewhere between 1992 and 1998 as that's when I was cycling to secondary school

My initial thoughts were Feb '93 or '94 , but it mightn't have been February at all

I'll have a look through the monthly bulletins myself later to get some closure on this, I didn't imagine it :pac:

Late January 1996 is the closest I can think of then - but February 1996 did record heavy snowfalls.

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

Late January 1996 is the closest I can think of then - but February 1996 did record heavy snowfalls.

Yup that must be it! About 8-10 days of dry easterlies from the 22nd Jan to the 2nd Feb. Thanks!

I remember the wind cutting my face off on the cycle in the mornings, and the depressing constant grey gloominess.

Rebelbrowser

GFS 12z is further north if anything

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

Yup that must be it! About 8-10 days of dry easterlies from the 22nd Jan to the 2nd Feb. Thanks!

I remember the wind cutting my face off on the cycle in the mornings, and the depressing constant grey gloominess.

January 1996 remains the dullest month on record for some. For example, Clonroche in Co. Wexford had only 8.8 hours of sunshine all month, less than 20% of its average January sunshine. Dublin Airport had only 28% of its average January sunshine.

Data from Met Éireann.

cml387

sryanbruen wrote: »

It was 1986. February 1986 was an extremely cold and dry month. It was the first of two exceptionally (and unusually) dry months of 1986 - the other being September. Many places had less than 10mm of rainfall throughout the month. The Irish Mean Temperature for the month was -0.5c which is -5.8c below the 1981-2010 average for February. However, this exceptional dry and cold weather came at the cost of little to no snow.

It must have been a very boring and raw month.

I remember it well. It wasn't unpleasant, just remarkably calm and dry.
An interesting phenomenon occurred when it broke down. The morning of the change we came down to find the tiled floor covered all over in little bubbles of water.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/966347808214339585

George Sunsnow

You’d expect the odd fluctuation from the Ukmo along with the other models
I’m expecting a monumentally cold ECMWF again tonight

Villain

An old video I made a few years back

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBvuqCFjL3o

Youngpensioner

Poor UKMO. Day 5 - 8 uppers over the Eastern half of Ireland, by day 6 its gone, -4 to -6 uppers. In the sunshine and out of the breeze it could feel quite pleasant by day 6. High is too far south.

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

GFS 12z is further north if anything

And what does that tell you when the UKMO has it further south? To me that it's inter run varability of the models, and that we should not invest too much negative emotion in one UKMO run.

squarecircles

-10 isotherm never really digs into ireland on the 12z, more wishy washy, temperatures not as extreme,not much snow on this run so far

Edit, plastered in snow on 213 frame

sryanbruen

Very interesting UKMO long range update today.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:
It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Villain

I think today's runs show why this thread was started too early, people jump on each run and FI charts will ALWAYS change. It's a waiting game and trend watching time.

Soccarboy11

well something is causing the models to not be in agreement with this, the GFS has the system further North while the UKMO has it further south. I think its just some run variability of models rn, waiting to see what the ECM brings. Agreement between models is still not the best

km79

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Poor UKMO. Day 5 - 8 uppers over the Eastern half of Ireland, by day 6 its gone, -4 to -6 uppers. In the sunshine and out of the breeze it could feel quite pleasant by day 6. High is too far south.

And this is bad news ?????

gabeeg

squarecircles wrote: »

-10 isotherm never really digs into ireland on the 12z, more wishy washy, temperatures not as extreme,not much snow on this run so far

Dunno about that. The front pushing up from the south could drop tons of snow as it meets the cold air.

Youngpensioner

km79 wrote: »

And this is bad news ?????

Well if you want snow its bad news. Any worth lasting snow. I'm sure like you plenty will love it.

SusieBlue

Does anyone think air travel will be affected by it?
Going on a long awaited city break in the middle of next week, flying from Dublin. Now I'm worried.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very interesting UKMO long range update today.



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

It sounds like March 2013- albeit with more snow in the offing. This is, as i keep saying, why i don't buy the heights being eroded quickly as some models were suggesting. That Canadian warming is an exceptional event after the major ssw event. It is also what led to the canadian vortex being severely weakened, and which has now increased our chances of an easterly outbreak.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

It sounds like March 2013- albeit with more snow in the offing. This is, as i keep saying, why i don't buy the heights being eroded quickly as some models were suggesting. That Canadian warming is an exceptional event after the major ssw event. It is also what led to the canadian vortex being severely weakened, and which has now increased our chances of an easterly outbreak.

Let's not forget too that the Canadian Warming (which normally never occurs in February) was stronger than the previous major SSW from last week as seen from the 30hPa temperatures. If that doesn't show this as a significant event in terms of what's going on in northern Europe or around the Arctic Circle, then I don't know what does.

Kermit.de.frog

Villain wrote: »

I think today's runs show why this thread was started too early

The thread is in relation to cold weather from Sunday. The forecast for cold has not changed.

Nor has the risk of more severe cold weather changed.

It's still 50/50 to me.

Good model output so far this evening and broadly on track for very cold and potentially snowy weather from Sunday. It will be a few days before snow amounts and favored locations can be commented on with any sort of accuracy.

Posters need to show some patience. We'll get there in the end.

beefburrito

Looks like it'll be a summer to remember too,as I can remember if the trend continues on and off,and the usual westerly influence is disturbed it could take a year or more to find its way back to us.
The mid 90's were great Summer's

Youngpensioner

UKMO long range until March 7th, snowy for the South East of England. Drier and less cold the further NW you go, which highlights the high will be too close for most of us in ireland. Nothing exciting there from an Irish perspective.

Rebelbrowser

Apologies for cross posting but the below post on NW from an Austrian meteorologist, referencing (I think) that body's thinking, does endorse some musings earlier in the week from MT...

"..Their own model develops a core mass of very cold upper air now developing over Northern Russia, sub -40c core at 500mb level ( at around 18500ft asl). They predict this cold pool to move W/SW in the direction of the British Isles with a quicker solution than shown by some of the bigger models. Further into the middle of next week looks like a trough or low formation to develop in the flow ,possibly over Poland or Southern Baltic as they have pressure value falling as low as 1015mb. That's something to keep an eye on in later runs. So light snow could start showing up in Southeast parts later in the weekend but the heavier convection snow more likely in Eastern parts in earlier part of next week with possible chance of more organised snowfall by Wednesday or the first day of the new month....".

Clearly the models have no idea what is going on so a scenario showing the cold just barrelling through and arriving here as soon as Sunday is as likely as anything else IMHO. Clearly the way the models are chopping and changing that outcome could appear out of nowhere on the models.

sryanbruen

beefburrito wrote: »

Looks like it'll be a summer to remember too,as I can remember if the trend continues on and off,and the usual westerly influence is disturbed it could take a year or more to find its way back to us.
The mid 90's were great Summer's

If only it was that simple beefburrito.

Summer 2018 is not looking good at all from a historical perspective, a long way to go though.

esposito

Youngpensioner wrote: »

UKMO long range until March 7th, snowy for the South East of England. Drier and less cold the further NW you go, which highlights the high will be too close for most of us in ireland. Nothing exciting there from an Irish perspective.

Really. We’ll see about that