Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Villain

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The thread is in relation to cold weather from Sunday. The forecast for cold has not changed.

Nor has the risk of more severe cold weather changed.

It's still 50/50 to me.

Good model output so far this evening and broadly on track for very cold and potentially snowy weather from Sunday. It will be a few days before snow amounts and favored locations can be commented on with any sort of accuracy.

Posters need to show some patience. We'll get there in the end.

The issue isn't the thread really it's the people jumping on one run and calling it as if that has the answer. Anyway as we both said, patience is needed and just ignore those new signup users who have returned purely to troll others

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Let's not forget too that the Canadian Warming (which normally never occurs in February) was stronger than the previous major SSW from last week as seen from the 30hPa temperatures. If that doesn't show this as a significant event in terms of what's going on in northern Europe or around the Arctic Circle, then I don't know what does.

Really. I did not know that. Very impressive. Chino' and the other netweather strat experts must be thrilled by what has taken place. They will be saving the charts for posterity. It's vindication for all his hard work hightlighting the infulence of the stratosphere on the weather we experience.

Kermit.de.frog

Youngpensioner wrote: »

UKMO long range until March 7th, snowy for the South East of England. Drier and less cold the further NW you go, which highlights the high will be too close for most of us in ireland. Nothing exciting there from an Irish perspective.

Great. You have no reason to be here then.;)

A whole big world out there to explore without this needless distraction.

Go forth my friend. :cool:

Youngpensioner

Villain wrote: »

The issue isn't the thread really it's the people jumping on one run and calling it as if that has the answer. Anyway as we both said, patience is needed and just ignore those new signup users who have returned purely to troll others

People are commenting on the latest runs, the GFS doesn't look as good as a couple of days ago, the UKMO has the high too far south, ECM looks dry. If the charts currently looked like they do now when this thread was made it wouldn't have been made. This thread is based off what the charts show and now they're looking not so good, a few days ago ice days with snow were looking possible, no chance of that now.

nacho libre

Youngpensioner wrote: »

People are commenting on the latest runs, the GFS doesn't look as good as a couple of days ago, the UKMO has the high too far south, ECM looks dry. If the charts currently looked like they do now when this thread was made it wouldn't have been made. This thread is based off what the charts show and now they're looking not so good, a few days ago ice days with snow were looking possible, no chance of that now.

That's a brave call to make. I doubt even if the chief met office forecasters of met eireann or the met office would make it at this stage. You've confirmed what i thought you were up to.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Really. I did not know that. Very impressive. Chino' and the other netweather strat experts must be thrilled by what has taken place. They will be saving the charts for posterity. It's vindication for all his hard work hightlighting the infulence of the stratosphere on the weather we experience.

Yep, see the second spike (the Canadian Warming) larger than the first.

Youngpensioner

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Great. You have no reason to be here then.;)

A whole big world out there to explore without this needless distraction.

Go forth my friend. :cool:

No need to be like that kermit because of my comment on the UKMO long range outlook, drier and warmer the further NW you travel of SE england,. People don't like the truth around here, just tell you to shut up and leave. Young ones have no manners these days. Sad

George Sunsnow

Youngpensioner wrote: »

UKMO long range until March 7th, snowy for the South East of England. Drier and less cold the further NW you go, which highlights the high will be too close for most of us in ireland. Nothing exciting there from an Irish perspective.

I’d say Colraine will see some heavy frosts and maybe some snow though at some stage as their latest YouTube video states there could be snow anywhere

You do realise that Northwest to the UK met office means places like Cumbria Scotland and most of Northern Ireland ?
At least it has in the last 40 or 50 years I’ve been watching them anyway

Lovely detailed video from them with Aidan Mcgivern again and no hint of a breakdown in the Siberian flow

Youngpensioner

nacho libre wrote: »

That's a brave call to make. I doubt even if the chief met office forecasters of met eireann or the met office would make it at this stage. You've confirmed what i thought you were up to.

Show me one weather model where it shows consecutive ice days for dublin next week? I'll be waiting a long time. It showed that a couple of days ago.

Youngpensioner

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d say Colraine will see some heavy frosts and maybe some snow though at some stage as their latest YouTube video states there could be snow anywhere

You do realise that Northwest to the UK met office means places like Cumbria Scotland and most of Northern Ireland ?
At least it has in the last 40 or 50 years I’ve been watching them anyway

Lovely detailed video from them with Aidan Mcgivern again and no hint of a breakdown in the Siberian flow

Show me your waist deep drifts from that slider in December. Always enjoyed reading fiction.

BLIZZARD7

We could do with that shortwave North of Iceland that WC has pointed out taking a hike, GFS still very good - UKMO/ECM/Arpege need to lose that influence on the next few runs or we will have a drier first few days of the week, beyond that is anyone's guess. Very Cold either way.

Soccarboy11

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

We could do with that shortwave North of Iceland that WC has pointed out taking a hike, GFS still very good - UKMO/ECM/Arpege need to lose that influence on the next few runs or we will have a drier first few days of the week, beyond that is anyone's guess. Very Cold either way.

informative, thank you. This type of stuff is good where the models are actually discussed and explained about what needs to be fixed for the event this thread was made for, rather then bashing people who want snow or who don't want snow with posts like 'oh its gone haha knew it' stuff.

ninebeanrows

EC tonight is huge but not the be all and end all. The synoptic is rare and just developing, minor changes will have big impacts for our island. Let's sit tight and watch , comment. We are 80% guaranteed a cold spell, details from there remain uncertain, it was probably unrealistic to expect a T192hr chart to verify exactly and -12 850 uppers are rare on this island.

Youngpensioner

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

informative, thank you. This type of stuff is good where the models are actually discussed and explained about what needs to be fixed for the event this thread was made for, rather then bashing people who want snow or who don't want snow with posts like 'oh its gone haha knew it' stuff.

I comment on what the models are showing and it doesn't look as good as a couple of days ago, consecutive ice days are out the window. People who want snow can't accept that and attack me for it. If I lied and said it looked amazing nothing would happen. People don't like to see posts which state the downgrades we have seen its as simple as that.

George Sunsnow

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Show me your waist deep drifts from that slider in December. Always enjoyed reading fiction.

Back in December,I linked to the photographs lad but I presume the 2nd or is it third site ban kicked in before you had a chance to browse them?
That’s not my fault
Also learn a bit about the geography of our beautiful country or better still get out and see it in winter before you profess to be an expert on it
That’s my advice

Soccarboy11

Youngpensioner wrote: »

I comment on what the models are showing and it doesn't look as good as a couple of days ago, consecutive ice days are out the window. People who want snow can't accept that and attack me for it. If I lied and said it looked amazing nothing would happen. People don't like to see posts which state the downgrades we have seen its as simple as that.

no you comment saying stuff like 'I would like to see pictures of your snow drifts, fanfiction' to members who have been posting here for years. Saying members attack you when you do the same isn't on imo.

gerrybhoy

Youngpensioner wrote: »

no chance of that now.

You were the last person i thought would have posted that....

Youngpensioner

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Back in December,I linked to the photographs lad but I presume the 2nd or is it third site ban kicked in before you had a chance to browse them?
That’s not my fault
Also learn a bit about the geography of our beautiful country or better still get out and see it in winter before you profess to be an expert on it
That’s my advice

Nowhere in Ireland had waist deep drifts from that slider in December. A couple of cm fell in the worst affected areas. 6 to 8 at the most. You'd at the very least have a red warning for that.

pistolpetes11

Youngpensioner wrote: »

I comment on what the models are showing and it doesn't look as good as a couple of days ago, consecutive ice days are out the window. People who want snow can't accept that and attack me for it. If I lied and said it looked amazing nothing would happen. People don't like to see posts which state the downgrades we have seen its as simple as that.

MOD NOTE

There is no problem with you posting what you interpret the models to be showing ,

There is a problem with the tone of your posting , your winding up other users , tone it down please , this will be the last warning .

To everyone else just use the report button as you have being doing and don't engage if you think the post is inflammatory

Youngpensioner

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

MOD NOTE

There is no problem with you posting what you interpret the models to be showing ,

There is a problem with the tone of your posting , your winding up other users , tone it down please , this will be the last warning .

To everyone else just use the report button as you have being doing and don't engage if you think the post is inflammatory

There is a problem because I said it doesn't look as good as it did a couple of days ago? Alright only ramping posts are allowed I'll bare that in mind.

Dank Janniels

We are 100 pages in, and 5 days out. Any1 willing to do a recap, a state of play perhaps?

pistolpetes11

Youngpensioner wrote: »

There is a problem because I said it doesn't look as good as it did a couple of days ago? Alright only ramping posts are allowed I'll bare that in mind.

Well Done do exactly the opposite as I ask in my post above ,

You can have a few days off for ignoring mod instruction

Reckless Abandonment

Dank Janniels wrote: »

We are 100 pages in, and 5 days out. Any1 willing to do a recap, a state of play perhaps?

Have your snow shovel in one hand and sun cream in the other

pilly

Dank Janniels wrote: »

We are 100 pages in, and 5 days out. Any1 willing to do a recap, a state of play perhaps?

Don't mention the war. :D:D

Kermit.de.frog

What the thread title says: "Increasing risk of cold weather, Sun 25th Feb"

What the thread title does not say: "Brace yourselves, the daffodil killer is coming"

:pac:

Even the less severe charts compared to recent days are still potentially severe. Important to note!:cool:

Dank Janniels

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Have your snow shovel in one hand and sun cream in the other

Iv a shovel and a blow torch and a big happy head on me!!

sryanbruen

This is another way of showing the significance of the Canadian Warming nacho libre. The zonal winds plunged after the first major SSW around 11-13 February then went near 0 m/s but then plunged back down to this point where we are now. Look at the zonal wind speeds getting below -30 m/s!:

BLIZZARD7

This second warming is likely explaining the scatty output at just days 4-6 by the way, exact same thing happened with the first warming before we saw the models produce those insane cold runs... This is the process that's delivering the final blow to the Canadian vortex segment.

George Sunsnow

Yes I’d agree that the 2nd warming is wobbling output,the same as the first did

Incidentally here’s one of the photographs I took up on the Croghan mountain wind farm on December 9th about 5 miles west of Arklow and was posted on the thread that evening
At that height it was lovely dry snow too
For clarity Drifts were indeed waist deep in places as they often have been on mountains this winter from Mt Leinster to the Cooley’s in Louth and obviously elsewhere in the country too

Sultan of Bling

Some of the posters on here remind me of the Manchester City team this week. Everything going their way and life is wonderful and then a little blip and they throw their toys out of the pram.

Calm down kids, you may get to build your snowmen yet.