Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

TheMilkyPirate

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

This second warming is likely explaining the scatty output at just days 4-6 by the way, exact same thing happened with the first warming before we saw the models produce those insane cold runs... This is the process that's delivering the final blow to the Canadian vortex segment.

These were my thoughts as well. We had output all over the place after the first warming that then settled into amazing charts and now it's wobbling again due to the second warming. Hopefully it will settle again closer to the weekend and we will start to get a clearer picture once the cold settles in.

I'm convinced parts of Ireland will see significant snow in the next two weeks.

Oneiric 3

Temperature forecast for Moscow over the next week or so (from the ECMWF via YR.NO)



Could lead to a touch of frost.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

This is another way of showing the significance of the Canadian Warming nacho libre. The zonal winds plunged after the first major SSW around 11-13 February then went near 0 m/s but then plunged back down to this point where we are now. Look at the zonal wind speeds getting below -30 m/s!:

[IMG][/IMG]

So for things to get back to normal up there and for that to then influence events in the troposphere, it should be at least two weeks. What do you think?
I sound like a broken record at this stage but this is why i just don't believe the GFS that we will back to a zonal influence after five or six days

pistolpetes11

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for Moscow over the next week or so (from the ECMWF via YR.NO)



Could lead to a touch of frost.

Hardly any perception for a nearly a week they can keep it :eek::eek::eek::D:P

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for Moscow over the next week or so (from the ECMWF via YR.NO)



Could lead to a touch of frost.

Oneiric 3, i'd say you are praying for a deep easterly:D It Must be why you have been quiet lately:)

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Oneiric 3, i'd say you are praying for a deep easterly:D It Must be why you have been quiet lately:)

I think I have worked it out.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Oneiric 3, i'd say you are praying for a deep easterly:D It Must be why you have been quiet lately:)

The way things are going, it looks as if any 'deep easterly' is going to be reserved for the continent. Not liking that increasingly NE bent of the forecast flow with any continental influence being well modified by maritime influences!

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

So for things to get back to normal up there and for that to then influence events in the troposphere, it should be at least two weeks. What do you think?
I sound like a broken record at this stage but this is why i just don't believe the GFS that we will back to a zonal influence after five or six days

From a historical perspective (if you're a warm and sunny lover, you may want to look away from this),

it's going to be a long very poor Spring that may go on into early Summer

. My Spring forecast will likely be posted Tuesday next week - a bit of a strange time considering what's possibly going to happen . It's certainly not looking pretty in terms of warmth.

As it's a very unique CW/SSW for the following reasons, we really don't know:

1. It happened directly following a major SSW just about a week before hand.
2. Canadian Warming events are very unusual for February. They normally occur in November or December.
3. The reversed zonal winds with the SSW already were hitting records and then the Canadian Warming causes the zonal winds to drop even further as can be seen from the chart I posted with speeds going below -30 m/s!

From a weather theory point of view, certainly no sign of the Atlantic zonal pattern coming back any time soon.

TheMilkyPirate

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think I have worked it out.

I spend a lot of time trying to figure out what username all the old posters are now posting under, I'm sure there all still here

sryanbruen

I think this face says it all. :rolleyes:

Larbre34

I've just booked my motor in for a service Monday, to replace fluids and filters and give everything a once over. Not because I need it to perform in cold weather, I just want to give it the best chance of recovering after its laid up in drifts for 10 days.

ninebeanrows

Hopefully I'm wrong but the EC not looking good at 96hrs.

Reckless Abandonment

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hopefully I'm wrong but the EC not looking good at 96hrs.

I'm no expert but looks ok to me

BLIZZARD7

120 hrs very similar to 00z run...looks better than the UKMO though on comparison

Villain

Yep subtle changes looks good to me.

Easiest way to share image on phone:

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/966377791628435456

nacho libre

So it has followed the GFS to an extent. In one way i'd like to it to follow the UKMO in its later frames, even if that means we have drier weather at first

Kermit.de.frog

Oh that'll do, for now

ninebeanrows

EC is a no dramas run. Phew apologies for my earlier post. EC is steady good. Going with 0z mean etc.

One thing I've learned in my few years forecasting ... the so called Experts do not analyse the models as much as we do... and for a reason

Gaia Mother Earth

In a nutshell, what is happening next week? I'm no weather chart reader

BLIZZARD7

Nice disturbance in the flow at +144 hrs - We're heading the right direction again :cool:

Villain

144 chart

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/966380028635308037

Soccarboy11

Let us all breath a nice sigh of relief.. for now anyway

Rougies

Gaia Mother Earth wrote: »

In a nutshell, what is happening next week? I'm no weather chart reader

Basically as the title says. Cold is almost guaranteed now, it's now a question of how cold and will it snow. Nobody has the answer yet.

Cork981

Am I right in saying we should add +10 degrees to the 850hPa temperatures to get rough ground temperature ?

Kermit.de.frog

Boom






Step in the "right" direction. Winds will go northerly there after. Long way to go yet.

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nice disturbance in the flow at +144 hrs - We're heading the right direction again :cool:

Thankfully no more SSW events..... for now (they can take place as late as April as such happened in 1982), so hopefully the agreement will become more present now and stay there if it does.

Rougies

Cork981 wrote: »

Am I right in saying we should add +10 degrees to the 850hPa temperatures to get rough ground temperature ?

For max daytime temps yeah that's about right.

LEIN

That'll do nicely

nacho libre

So are we posting charts here now because we believe this is now outside of fi territory:D

Reckless Abandonment

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC is a no dramas run. Phew apologies for my earlier post. EC is steady good. Going with 0z mean etc.

One thing I've learned in my few years forecasting ... the so called Experts do not analyse the models as much as we do... and for a reason

Analysing each run is the best part. When there is a chance of snow each run is like cocaine to me