Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

JCX BXC

Cork981 wrote: »

Am I right in saying we should add +10 degrees to the 850hPa temperatures to get rough ground temperature ?

Yes for daytime, nighttime temps will normally be colder.

nacho libre

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boom






Step in the "right" direction. Winds will go northerly there after. Long way to go yet.

And it should ensure the cold sustains for longer

Oneiric 3

Gaia Mother Earth wrote: »

In a nutshell, what is happening next week? I'm no weather chart reader

barrier86

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Analysing each run is the best part. When there is a chance of snow each run is like cocaine to me

thatrs why it's called snow by some.

BLIZZARD7

Superb 850's at +168, country engulfed in -12- 13c, any slight shift north from this ECM run and we are in a very snowy setup so it's very much on the table (not that this run would be dry). Gefs back this option too, come on UKMO join the party in the morning...

beefburrito

I'm already building etra flexitime in work, I need at least two afternoons with off shore breeze or glassy beaches, a nice swell hitting the beaches in Clare and I'll be happy.

My 6 millimeter wetsuit needs a workout and I love surfing in the cold as the waters lovely.

It's looking good from here

ninebeanrows

The EC does reinforce a 'theme' though and you could easily see it reinforced on the 0z. Ensembles will be interesting. Regardless the outcome is very cold but I think we'd all prefer a clean margin less easterly than a quick transition to a northeasterly with a large mild sector..

It's all routes lead to cold though

BLIZZARD7

Coldest uppers have sunk south at day 8, reload probable from the north - Slack winds and low pressure over snow cover, this is where you see very low night time minima.

typhoony

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Superb 850's at +168, country engulfed in -12- 13c, any slight shift north from this ECM run and we are in a very snowy setup so it's very much on the table (not that this run would be dry). Gefs back this option too, come on UKMO join the party in the morning...

The 12z gfs for 12pm next Wednesday looks nothing like the Ecm you've posted, anyway the gfs looks a bit wonky with a shallow low developing out of knowhere

BLIZZARD7

typhoony wrote: »

The 12z gfs for 12pm next Wednesday looks nothing like the Ecm you've posted, anyway the gfs looks a bit wonky with a shallow low developing out of knowhere

I don't expect they will look alike for a few runs either, lots more twists to come- as had been said though, all routes lead to cold.

Kermit.de.frog

Here's a snow event on day 9



Good run. As mentioned though, tight margins.

Nettle Soup

MET Eireann ramping now on RTE even though they reckon it will be very dry.

Rougies

Jesus, if 216 and 240 verified we'd be buried.

Reckless Abandonment

Snow machine forms right over Ireland at the end. Very nice from the ECM

Kermit.de.frog

Latest high resolution NMM (850 hpa temperatures) to Monday 1 pm, on track...

George Sunsnow

Nettle Soup wrote: »

MET Eireann ramping now on RTE even though they reckon it will be very dry.

They mean very dry for most of the country
They’re only looking at Irish Sea convection at the moment in the outer ranges of of their forecast range

lawred2

Is everyone firing on all cylinders again then?

emo72

When yis say day one, is that referring to Monday the start of the cold weather? And day nine is nine days after that? And so on and so forth?

force eleven

Rougies wrote: »

Jesus, if 216 and 240 verified we'd be buried.

Disappointing run tbh, still the theme of cold deflected south and eastward. 216 and 240 is la la land and can be ignored. I'm not happy. We get colder yes, but it's dry and not bitter cold.

snowstorm445

I may be reading it wrong but the ECM looks like having small low dumping a good load of snow over Ireland towards the end of next week. FI obviously but still. :pac:

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC is a no dramas run. Phew apologies for my earlier post. EC is steady good. Going with 0z mean etc.

One thing I've learned in my few years forecasting ... the so called Experts do not analyse the models as much as we do... and for a reason

I’d love to do an Ask Me Anything thread : with a forecaster from ME

Reckless Abandonment

emo72 wrote: »

When yis say day one, is that referring to Monday the start of the cold weather? And day nine is nine days after that? And so on and so forth?

Day one is today. Day two tomorrow etc

Rougies

lawred2 wrote: »

Is everyone firing on all cylinders again then?

The air/fuel ratio on one of mine needs a bit of adjustment, but otherwise chugging along nicely. :pac:

UsedToWait

lawred2 wrote: »

Is everyone firing on all cylinders again then?

I haven't a clue about charts, but loving the rollercoaster ride of this thread.

Kudos to Kermit for putting his proverbials on the chopping block so often this winter.

Hope this last one goes off big style!

BLIZZARD7

force eleven wrote: »

Disappointing run tbh, still the theme of cold deflected south and eastward. 216 and 240 is la la land and can be ignored. I'm not happy. We get colder yes, but it's dry and not bitter cold.

It's a big improvement on the 00z and isn't far off synoptic perfection with a few small tweaks. (a very good run in its own right) if you're disappointed with that you will never be pleased.

nacho libre

force eleven wrote: »

Disappointing run tbh, still the theme of cold deflected south and eastward. 216 and 240 is la la land and can be ignored. I'm not happy. We get colder yes, but it's dry and not bitter cold.

I'm not sure how you can call it a disappointing run with what's on offer. It's an exciting run.

Rougies

force eleven wrote: »

Disappointing run tbh, still the theme of cold deflected south and eastward. 216 and 240 is la la land and can be ignored. I'm not happy. We get colder yes, but it's dry and not bitter cold.

Maybe disappointing compared to some of the crazy runs two days ago, but imagine you never saw those and tonight's run came out of nowhere, you'd be more than happy!

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote: »

The EC does reinforce a 'theme' though and you could easily see it reinforced on the 0z. Ensembles will be interesting. Regardless the outcome is very cold but I think we'd all prefer a clean margin less easterly than a quick transition to a northeasterly with a large mild sector..

It's all routes lead to cold though

Yes, but it tends to be within such fine margins we tend to get epic snowfalls. Even though i'm not seeing it all that marginal. At the very very worst we'll end up with dry and cold weather with just a little snow, but the potential for something significnt is there. It's exciting and nerve wracking to follow for sure.

Itssoeasy

Dank Janniels wrote: »

We are 100 pages in, and 5 days out. Any1 willing to do a recap, a state of play perhaps?

There's some weather coming next week.

Reckless Abandonment

It would be great just once to go to bed knowing it will be snowing the next day. No ifs, Buts, dps,wet bulb . Just "tomorrow heavy snow" end of.