Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Rougies

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Ill sell it to you 50C a bag

What kind of bag? Gabeeg's username backwards?

JCX BXC

Just to point out, this thread has 17 of the top 25 thanks on the entire site of boards.ie, arguably the best preforming thread on the site and looks like it will continue to be for at least another week.

Xenji

beefburrito wrote: »

Well they've plenty of salt and grit in stockpile.

Actually road maintenance budgets received a 16% budget cut for 2018, they have been quite stingy with grit so far this year around Mayo.

gabeeg

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just to point out, this thread has 17 of the top 25 thanks on the entire site of boards.ie, arguably the best preforming thread on the site and looks like it will continue to be for at least another week.

yeah but at the same time, sometimes its the worst place in the whole world

beefburrito

Xenji wrote: »

Actually road maintenance budgets received a 16% budget cut for 2018, they have been quite stingy with grit so far this year around Mayo.

Clare County Council has huge stocks,well so I'm lead to believe anyhow.

Rougies

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Might be time to add a level 2 to this thread and change the title to

Much colder weather with increasing risk of localized heavy snowfalls from Mon 26th

There are enough high probability impacts from the cold alone to merit a level two, and the snowfall potential looks to be at least level two.

Oddly this is about where we were saying we would start a thread but then we would never have had the five days of jolly banter etc, or had the pleasure of meeting our new trolls.

The danger of changing the title like that is derailing the thread with "is this warning level warranted" arguments. I vote we keep in line with Met Eireann warnings as usual.

Iancar29

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Can any1 remember if there were powercuts in 2010?
Im getting my storms and my snowdays mixed up, both had equal amounts of cabin fever so Im gona get prepared!!

Think you may be remembering this? :cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL4vou2tars

Doltanian

Jaylah Dirty Self-interest wrote: »

Think of all the farmers on the farming forum trying to keep their animals alive until they're ready for you to eat them while you have your "memorable event"



Gets my coat

My in-laws are already feeling the cold in eastern Europe. Next week is going to be very bad for them:D

As a person from a farming background the snow is only issue for those that fail to prepare, My father remembers digging out sheep with his father as a small boy during huge snowfalls back in the 1960's that was hard weather then. Sheep instinctively chew their own wool to sustain them and can survive several days under snowdrifts which can be even warmer than above ground, similar to Igloos used by Eskimos.

A prolonged snowfall event with several days of subzero temperatures is extremely beneficial to farmers as snow fixes nitrogen into the ground and far more importantly it has a dramatic effect on bacteria, viruses and parasites in that huge amounts of them are killed off by the bitter biting cold. Ireland is far too wet and damp and it would be the perfect climate if it had more hard snowy winters and about a 66% reduction in rainfall leading to long productive summers. The 2010 big freeze was almost like a genocide to the Midge population and 2011 had the lowest amount of midges I seen in years here.

Back in the summer of 2011 after the big free of 2010 I personally sank my water pipe down two metres and entombed the Water stopvalve down 3 metres under steel reinforced concrete (fitting my own valve on private property) and when the Irish water fools came around in 2013 I parked an old banger of a car over eveything for the entire duration in an act of passive aggressive resistance. Result my supply is still entombed wheras half the country will lose water after the botch job Irish water did with their metering programme.

Cork Boy 53

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Can any1 remember if there were powercuts in 2010?
Im getting my storms and my snowdays mixed up, both had equal amounts of cabin fever so Im gona get prepared!!

Not in west Cork anyway. Plenty of frozen pipes though.

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

The danger of changing the title like that is derailing the thread with "is this warning level warranted" arguments. I vote we keep in line with Met Eireann warnings as usual.

Very fair point that I completely agree with. I don't want to be dealing with those bullsh!t arguments.

munsterlegend

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not in west Cork anyway. Plenty of frozen pipes though.

Yeah the lack of water supply really was a killer.

M.T. Cranium

I would expect temperatures in Poland to drop as low as -20 C at night and -7 C in the daytime by Sunday and Monday. After that, it might moderate slowly and the GFS 18z suggests a brief thaw at some stage but that might turn into freezing rain or sleet.

For Germany and Netherlands temperatures around -5 C daytime and -15 C overnight except for some -20 or lower in a few valleys of central Germany.

For northern France likely to be sub-freezing daytime for several days, might not be a large temperature range if cloud and snow develop from frontal boundaries further south, but for a brief time the severe cold will spill out of the Rhone valley to the Riviera and possibly as far as northern Corsica. That won't last very long as a frontal zone will set up and most of the cold air will be held up north of the coast after that.

I don't trust any details on these models past the initial outbreak, all we really know is that there's potential for this to dig in and last for more than a week, the details will be revealed closer to the time. However we can surmise that the details will include closed low circulations and a certain amount of sea effect snowfall, more of a probability assessment than a forecast at this early stage.

There are possibilities we have not seen on any particular map yet for localized heavy snow so keep watching, perhaps these will appear.

gozunda

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I would actually expect the national emergency coordination committee to be meeting next week to discuss measures needed once the extent of what’s ahead is firmed up

A bit like this?

Sierra Oscar

Time to check the heat lamps in my attic, they're set to kick in when the temperature hits 1C to prevent the water tank and pipes freezing. They haven't seen any use since 2010.

A few houses where I am (Midlands) were destroyed in 2010 due to frozen pipes, made worse by the fact that it hit when many people were away for the holiday period. When the thaw came the water flowed!

Donegal Storm

Rougies wrote: »

The danger of changing the title like that is derailing the thread with "is this warning level warranted" arguments. I vote we keep in line with Met Eireann warnings as usual.

Agreed, far too early to be issuing any warnings. Up until Tuesday all we're likely to see is some dry frosty weather. Anything possible after that including the high sinking back on top of us leaving us in a messy nondescript north easterly. Until a forecast is somewhat locked in then this thread is still all speculation

Golfwidow

Iancar29 wrote: »

Think you may be remembering this? :cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL4vou2tars

Actually we had a power cut in East Meath on Christmas evening 2010. It was absolutely freezing because we couldn't switch the heating on and house with no open fire!!

Dank Janniels

Golfwidow wrote: »

Actually we had a power cut in East Meath on Christmas evening 2010. It was absolutely freezing because we couldn't switch the heating on and house with no open fire!!

Id seriously consider hibernation!

MJohnston

I'm enjoying the cross-model alignment here, especially as the ARPEGE was holding out last night:

sryanbruen

The Beast From The East Cometh

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8752-the-beast-from-the-east-cometh

curfumsarinn

Hi all

Spectacularly informative and interesting thread, well played all. Personally I've decided it's time to prepare for a potentially tricky stretch of weather, so oil tank and wood store are full.

What I'm wondering is: are there amongst you people who have drafted up simple lists of just-in-case provisions that a responsible parent and partner would be quietly putting together over the next few days? All pointers welcome, many thanks, no doubt I'll be glued to this forum over the next few days.

Mullaghteelin

Iancar29 wrote: »

Think you may be remembering this? :cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL4vou2tars

That's unlikely to happen this time round. Sea temperatures are much lower at this time of year, so convection shouldn't be as extreme.
500hPa temps dipped as low as -43C at times in late 2010. I haven't seen values like that in current forecasts, but who knows what will happen by this time next week.

SusieBlue

Having spent the night following the thread I can probably safely bet that my Dublin flight to Italy on Wednesday won’t be happening

JCX BXC

WhiteRoses wrote: »

Having spent the night following the thread I can probably safely bet that my Dublin flight to Italy on Wednesday won’t be happening

Flights still ran in 2010, just not that many of them. Far far far far far too early to know what if any precip to expect and it'd be very unlikely to be as severe as 2010. There's absolutely no need to be so worried this far out!

sjb25

Rougies wrote: »

The danger of changing the title like that is derailing the thread with "is this warning level warranted" arguments. I vote we keep in line with Met Eireann warnings as usual.

Agreed and also the never ending what time on Monday will it snow in my back garden posts

Franz Von Peppercorn

WhiteRoses wrote: »

Having spent the night following the thread I can probably safely bet that my Dublin flight to Italy on Wednesday won’t be happening

There’s no certainty of snow by then. Just cold.

nacho libre

These charts being churned out are almost as a beautiful this woman playing thunderstruck on bag pipes.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g50Un5QD2u0

We just need the UKMO to move towards the other two models in the morning. At that stage, if it happens, i would think it's almost a lock for a special event, as opposed to a fairly cold spell with some snow.

Liffey4A

Could I suggest when / if a new thread is created that we have a general question or chat thread and a seperate more technical discussion thread please.

Thanks to all those posting charts and opinions lately, very interesting.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

We just need the UKMO to move towards the other two models in the morning. At that stage, if it happens, i would think it's almost a lock for a special event, as opposed to a fairly cold spell with some snow.

Of course this is assuming the other two don't have a wobble. What I should have said is we are on the cusp of something special,but it can still go awry if it's snowy cold you desire, if you just want fairly cold and dry weather that is a lock(guarantee) at this stage.

snowstorm445

JCX BXC wrote: »

Flights still ran in 2010, just not that many of them. Far far far far far too early to know what if any precip to expect and it'd be very unlikely to be as severe as 2010. There's absolutely no need to be so worried this far out!

Remember getting a two hour flight back to Ireland around the 19th-20th of that December (missed the entire first half of the spell of snow), plane was meant to leave at 7pm, ended up being delayed till 11 due to snow in Dublin and so we got in around half one in the morning. Stuck on the runway for another half an hour, all the while Christmas tunes were being blasted out in the plane cabin driving me (and probably most of the other passengers) nuts. Only managed to get back to Drogheda around half 3 I think.

Not the most pleasant of experiences.

pad199207

22c in New York today. Very impressive for February