Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

BLIZZARD7

UKMO manages to have the core of Cold further north this time whilst also delivering blizzards to the French Riviera, Europe is in for a most unusual start to 'spring'

Kermit.de.frog

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

South/East getting hammered on the ICON, -16c uppers edging in!





The models are all moving towards the significant snow and deep cold option now, lets keep this going for once.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd1ciPnTGKg

M.T. Cranium

This GFS is not terrible but I suspect it is going to be amended by ensembles later, seems to have lost some of its potential for low 500 mb heights and this is why there are no transient disturbances moving west, also the 850s don't really match the surface flow too well. GEM is notably slow now and is probably wrong on that. Arpege appears faster than previous run by about 6 hours.

ICON on the other hand appears too pumped for cold, I don't foresee -16 that close to Ireland. But a sort of blend of all models looks really good.

Great anticipation now for the ECM.

Actual obs (remember those?) show the severe cold massing east of the Baltic, temps down to -25 C near Russia-Latvia border and readings as low as -38 in northern Sweden.

Kermit.de.frog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

the 850s don't really match the surface flow too well.

Flow is more easterly at 850 hpa compared to the surface.



I think the GFS in terms of cold is awesome. Snow in there for many parts of the country at different times as well.

Calibos

When should I make the trip down to the Fuel Merchants for Coal and Logs lads and should I do a 7 or 14 day shop on Sunday?

ninebeanrows

EC looking good.

JanuarySnowstor

Serious upgrades this morning in the mid term!
Country is heading for an epic cold spell
What I really like is the move back to Easterly winds being maintained which is where the deep cold is

Malayalam

Calibos wrote: »

should I do a 7 or 14 day shop on Sunday?

My thoughts, exactly!

Whatever about us, it looks like mainland Europeans and Scandinavians are going to be very, very cold next week.

kod87

ECM is excellent so far

M.T. Cranium

ECM 168 would suggest heavy snow potential for much of the country, as record cold combines with a tight gradient. (added later) ... all-out raging blizzard on those maps, lasting up to 2-3 days ... winds would be ENE backing to NNE 60-100 km/hr in exposed parts of east and south, if this actually happened you would be looking at 40 cm snowfalls and large drifts in open areas.

But keep in mind I am just interpreting a map sequence here, I am not predicting that, will mention the potential for a severe winter storm in forecasts though.

Reckless Abandonment

168 on the ECM is mental.

Musicman2000

Exellent Morning runs , upgrades on the uppers and more importantly from the UKMO & ECM

ninebeanrows

Today's EC is the best run I have ever seen.

ninebeanrows

The Brits will be worried it is going to far north now looking at GFS and the latest EC, we will happily take this trend.

kod87

I want to put that ECM run in the bank, just perfect so far

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Today's EC is the best run I have ever seen.

I just wish it was on one of the hi Res models. The waiting is a killer

force eleven

I threw my toys outof the pram after last ECM run. I'm hastily gathering them up again. Excellent run, particularly middle of next week.

leahyl

Jus woke and the first thing I do is check this thread...and can I just say eeeeeek!!

munsterlegend

force eleven wrote: »

I threw my toys outof the pram after last ECM run. I'm hastily gathering them up again. Excellent run, particularly middle of next week.

I am sure they will be thrown out again. That's weather models for you.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

I am sure they will be thrown out again. That's weather models for you.

Bah munsterlegend stop being so sensible :-P

IvySlayer

I nearly jumped out of my seat on the bus looking at those charts and can't stop smiling

King of Spades

Met Eireann stilll don’t seem convinced. Latest outlook says it may turn colder next Tuesday and Wednesday with some wintry showers possible. All quite vague. No mention of snow. I’ve warned a couple of local farmers who have young lambs or are due to lamb based on what experts are saying on here. Sounds like more farmers and vulnerable people should be aware and making preparations, especially here in the East.

robinwing

The lamps are going out all over Europe

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Bah munsterlegend stop being so sensible :-P

So used to downgrades. Things looking great this morning but wish it was next Monday!

ninebeanrows

King of Spades wrote: »

Met Eireann stilll don’t seem convinced. Latest outlook says it may turn colder next Tuesday and Wednesday with some wintry showers possible. All quite vague. No mention of snow. I’ve warned a couple of local farmers who have young lambs or are due to lamb based on what experts are saying on here. Sounds like more farmers and vulnerable people should be aware and making preparations, especially here in the East.

There's a farming forecast on met eireann published daily

munsterlegend

King of Spades wrote: »

Met Eireann stilll don’t seem convinced. Latest outlook says it may turn colder next Tuesday and Wednesday with some wintry showers possible. All quite vague. No mention of snow. I’ve warned a couple of local farmers who have young lambs or are due to lamb based on what experts are saying on here. Sounds like more farmers and vulnerable people should be aware and making preparations, especially here in the East.

It's still a long way off but yesterday they did start to play up the potential. Also they will just be viewing latest ECM like the rest of us. The Met Office UK up date overnight is very snowy for the UK.

M.T. Cranium

If those maps came to fruition, the country would be brought to a standstill for days.

A more realistic loop scenario might be further into France and not as far north, as those low heights and cold 850s suggest more of a barrier. This might leave day 10 in more severe cold uppers and maintain a potential for further snow.

Given the temperatures in the Irish Sea and off the south coast (8-10 C), there could be prodigious snowfalls from this set-up.

stephenjmcd

Can someone post the latest images. Can't seem to access them on my phone at the moment. Cheers

King of Spades

Weathercheck wrote: »

There's a farming forecast on met eireann published daily

Thanks for that. Just looked at it and it does seem to be more committal about snow chances next week, which is helpful.

IvySlayer

Could there be an isle of man shadow? I propose we send an armada to sink it