Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Calibos

channaigh wrote: »

So excited have the kids wound up off to buy snow gear now

Yep. Me too. Ordered Snowsocks for the cars and Snow/Ice crampons for the shoes and boots from Amazon about 2am there. Should have them on Tuesday. Down to the Fuel Merchants today for Coal and Logs and will do a big shop over the weekend. Not going to buy snow booties for the dogs online though. Think I'll bring them up to MaxiZoo and see if can I get them to wear them first before I waste money on them.

George Sunsnow

Calibos wrote: »

Have a bathroom sink in one of our rental properties that has an outside drain pipe with a mediocre 'fall' that froze and blocked up with ice in 2010. What would you suggest I wrap that with my Arklow friend?

The lagging is a thick enough substance in lengths but only of marginal benefit to outdoor pipes
You’ll get a small burner flame device in a good hardware store though to blow fire onto them to thaw them out if they’re a short stretch
Obviously don’t use it near gas bottles and wave the flame up and down the pipe not melting it but getting it hot all the same while the tap is on

JCX BXC

And at this stage I'm in, another upgrade from the ECM is what I told myself was needed last night.

Choo choo!

First event where I've watched models as closely as this personally, fascinating watching the development of the cold coming in.

If current models verify, then we could see one of the cold snaps that will last into our memories for years to come!

pistolpetes11

Bit of calm and perspective needed , although cold appears locked in , the positioning of that high pressure is vital , model runs have being toying with its position last few days , too far south and its cold and dry

EDIT : although in saying that it appears that some of the big hitters on here seem increasingly giddy at the prospects

Calibos

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

While coastal convergence from land friction does enhance sea-effect convection in coastal areas, I can't see anywhere getting 60-80 cm of snowfall from this, except maybe some northeast-facing upslopes under 24 hours of streamers.

Yep understood. Even inland areas of Bray at 150m got nearly double what I got on the Seafront that night in 2010 due to those effects and being under the stremer a little longer.

M.T. Cranium

red_bairn wrote: »

MT, when is everything locked in place? Are we talking about this event starting from Monday onwards?

Snowfall details will probably be very day to day, if all the models started to show the same maps for 2-3 days ahead then we could make educated guesses, if we are confronted with ranges of maps that close to time zero, then you're going to hear a variety of opinions. But at this early stage, we are talking about a significant cold spell that is just about locked in place, there might be a 10-15 per cent chance of it not working out, these snowfall conjectures at present are really not very high probability, but it's a case of saying that snowfall somewhere is a high probability, can't get around the fact that all this cold air and days of opportunities for things to develop will all amount to zero snow. Then you can perhaps say that east and south coast as well as Ulster are most logical places to expect snow in this general pattern, but no part of the country is ruled out given some of the maps we've seen.

I think if there's going to be a large-scale heavy snowfall event around mid-week, it should be fairly high probability from Sunday's guidance or maybe as late as Monday.

George Sunsnow

That would indicate a streamer
Basically back to back snow showers running into an area without much let up
In Arklow on December 22 2010 one of those dumped close to a foot in about 8 hours including thunder and lightning

Take the map as indicative for now though
It’s one run
I’m expecting Those conditions could set up anywhere on the east coast by Wednesday

pad199207

When ya mention streamers the N7 Corridor Streamer comes to mind. Oh the memories

Rebelbrowser

now online wrote: »

My Google home says snow is expected in cork on Tuesday!
Loving the updates here, thanks everyone!

My Echo Dot / Alexa said this morning I only had an 18% chance of snow in Cork in the next 7 days! I nearly got into an argument with her. I wonder which models each of these devices runs off?

PukkaStukka

Some thread this! With all of the excitements going on, I'm try to guess the average age of the child that's posting here. I get the distinct feeling it's 40 something :pac:

Irrespective, please carry on regardless as you're all doing splendid!!!

Calibos

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Some thread this! With all of the excitements going on, I'm try to guess the average age of the child that's posting here. I get the distinct feeling it's 40 something :pac:

Irrespective, please carry on regardless as you're all doing splendid!!!

44

I guess it stems from the fact that we were all kids and young teens for the Big events in '82, '84 and '87 and thus old enough to get out unaccompanied and really enjoy it while at the same time being young enough to have no responsibilities and not worry about getting to work or whether the local Crazy Prices had any bread or milk left

(I just about remember the 78/79 snow)

sryanbruen

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Some thread this! With all of the excitements going on, I'm try to guess the average age of the child that's posting here. I get the distinct feeling it's 40 something :pac:

Irrespective, please carry on regardless as you're all doing splendid!!!

17

I’m still trying to contain myself about this thing.

leahyl

32.....but I can't help it, snow gets me excited every single time :pac:

Rebelbrowser

Calibos wrote: »

44

I guess it stems from the fact that we were all kids and young teens for the Big events in '82 and '87 and thus old enough to get out unaccompanied and really enjoy it while at the same time being young enough to have no responsibilities and not worry about work or whether the local Crazy Prices had any bread or milk left

And most of us now have kids we can pretend to be excited on behalf of!

MJohnston

I know Meteociel is great for the range of charts they show, but I find their temperature scales a pain in the arse to accurately determine. I really love how WXCharts display it though:



They also have this brilliant ECM vs GFS comparison chart:

kenmc

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Some thread this! With all of the excitements going on, I'm try to guess the average age of the child that's posting here. I get the distinct feeling it's 40 something :pac:

Irrespective, please carry on regardless as you're all doing splendid!!!

41 going on 13. have a 5yo and 3yo kid though, so honestly, i only want the snow to come for them. honestly.

PukkaStukka

I'm an elderly 48 :eek: and can remember all the big events from '82 onwards. My youngest brother was born at the height of the '87 event. I remember starting work a few weeks before, and after the blizzard set in, having to walk for two miles before I could get a bus. Funny thing was, it didn't feel could when you were out in it,

Timfy

I'm as avid a weather watcher as anyone, and out here in Connemara there's more to watch than most get. For years my weather station has been running and reporting and I spend more time staring longingly at the nearest lampost than I probably do my wife!

HOWEVER

After 50 years, I decided to take my driving test and it's scheduled for 28th Feb. I am seriously torn between praying to the white gods and also hoping that next Wednesday is simply cold and a bit overcast!

After that may it dump at least 2 foot on us!!!!!:D

Calibos

Timfy wrote: »

I'm as avid a weather watcher as anyone, and out here in Connemara there's more to watch than most get. For years my weather station has been running and reporting and I spend more time staring longingly at the nearest lampost than I probably do my wife!

HOWEVER

After 50 years, I decided to take my driving test and it's scheduled for 28th Feb. I am seriously torn between praying to the white gods and also hoping that next Wednesday is simply cold and a bit overcast!

After that may it dump at least 2 foot on us!!!!!:D

You've been driving on a 'Provisional' for 50 years!! ;)

Timfy

Calibos wrote: »

You've been driving on a 'Provisional' for 50 years!! ;)

Nope!!! Motorcycles only :cool:

So if the snow happens it'll be later in the week next week? For Monday is it fair to say it should be very very cold but we shouldn't be snowed under?

barney 20v

Mallory Squeaking Celebration wrote: »

So if the snow happens it'll be later in the week next week? For Monday is it fair to say it should be very very cold but we shouldn't be snowed under?

Correct:)

ninebeanrows

On the other side of this - this could be devastating for some farmers.

frash

Croatia now

barney 20v

I'm based in the foot hills of the Blackstairs Mountain Co .WEXFORD 190M ASL and i'm truly expecting at least 20cm of snow over the next week, possibly way more .
We always get decent snow and I think we're ideally located (at the moment ) for a direct hit from this next week.

we've been snowed in at least 3 times in my lifetime and i've a feeling i'm about to have a 4th go!

Lumen

This is probably obvious to everyone on this thread, but just in case it isn't.

tldr: add 10C to the 850hPa temps to get temps at ground level, unless you're up a big hill in which case it'll be colder, obvs.

(awaits correction from better informed)

850hPa temperature fields
850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea doesn't affect it's temperature. That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts.

Because the models have had several problem in surface parametrisation, 850 hPa temperature forecasts have been more accurate than those for lower levels. So we used to bring the 850 hPa to surface by adding 15 (or 10) degrees, and use it instead of surface maximum temperature.

WARNING: all this works only at low altitudes, not in the mountains. It works only when the sun is heating the ground: not at the sea or windward coast, not at night-time, not at winter. 15 is the continental value (for dry adiabatic lapse rate); in Ireland they use 10 (for moist adiabatic lapse rate) and I guess at the Alps the 850 hPa temperature is more or less equal to the surface temperature.

Source: http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/142

Calibos

Theres a song by the Pointer Sisters that keeps playing in my head!

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

On the other side of this - this could be devastating for some farmers.

Aye there’s a thread on the farming forum which I’m updating
I’ve asked people there to take basic measures like having oil tanks full,sourcing generators and mobile tanks to bring milk to central collection points etc
People actually do not get the risk or the potential of this period
I expect it to be like February 1991 on steroids

gerrybhoy

Calibos wrote: »

Theres a song by the Pointer Sisters that keeps playing in my head!

Yeah...Jump

lawred2

From ME's national forecast

It will most likely still be dry on Monday with some sunny spells but very cold for the time of year with daytime temperatures in the low single figures inland, and around 5 or 6 degrees on coasts. It may turn somewhat colder on Tuesday and Wednesday with wintry showers and moderate to fresh east to northeasterly winds. Also nights are likely to turn colder with widespread severe frost.

That's seriously wishy washy talk compared to what I'm reading here

Are they going to wait until the day before to tell people what they already know?