Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

John.Icy

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Bit of calm and perspective needed , although cold appears locked in , the positioning of that high pressure is vital , model runs have being toying with its position last few days , too far south and its cold and dry

EDIT : although in saying that it appears that some of the big hitters on here seem increasingly giddy at the prospects

This needs to be kept in mind. As someone else eluded to aswell, GFS has a south of east flow - more awkward for us in terms of Irish sea action.

Just shows the knife edge we're on still in terms of snowfall (the cold is coming no matter). Perfect alignment and you get the crazy snowy ECM. Change the angle of the isobars a little; you get the GFS and more less fun.

Always nice to have ECM showing the preferred scenario however.

sideswipe

Okay so, the excitement is palpable in here this morning! I take it this is us cresting an 'up' section of the roller coaster?
Or is everything locked in place now for snow and ice lovers?

Timfy

"I'm snow excited"

Calibos wrote: »

Theres a song by the Pointer Sisters that keeps playing in my head!

The Specialist

lawred2 wrote: »

From ME's national forecast



That's seriously wishy washy talk compared to what I'm reading here

Are they going to wait until the day before to tell people what they already know?

Don't expect any sort of ramping from Met Eireann before at least Sunday, maybe Monday - they will stay on the conservative side for the forecast until then, no point issuing warnings this far out.

PukkaStukka

lawred2 wrote: »

From ME's national forecast



That's seriously wishy washy talk compared to what I'm reading here

Are they going to wait until the day before to tell people what they already know?

Listened to the 07:55 forecast this morning and and snow showers were mentioned, particularly with a risk of their frequency increasing from midweek on.

George Sunsnow

lawred2 wrote: »

From ME's national forecast



That's seriously wishy washy talk compared to what I'm reading here

Are they going to wait until the day before to tell people what they already know?

Their farming forecast is more alarming
I would have to presume that their approach at this stage is to warn potential affected interests like farmers and local councils
On the farming page it says:


High pressure will build close to Ireland over the next few days before pushing north allowing an extremely cold easterly air-flow become established. Slight or moderate frosts are likely for the remainder of this week but frosts will become severe by Sunday night and through all of next week. Ice and snow will be added factors towards the middle of next week. Daytime temperatures by early next week will struggle to 2 or 3 Celsius with overnight lows falling to -4 or -5 Celsius, lower over snow fields

Quite a difference and proper order!

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farm-commentary.asp

Petal765

Does anyone know if the government have put plans in place with regards to red weather warnings, schools, travelling to and from work etc following on from Storm Ophelia?

I know there was a lot of confusion about it at the time, I know at the end of the day if you can't travel to work then you can't travel but if things do turn out for the worst has anything been learnt with regards to the grey area of adverse weather conditions/schools closing/travel chaos?

George Sunsnow

Petal765 wrote: »

Does anyone know if the government have put plans in place with regards to red weather warnings, schools, travelling to and from work etc following on from Storm Ophelia?

I know there was a lot of confusion about it at the time, I know at the end of the day if you can't travel to work then you can't travel but if things do turn out for the worst has anything been learnt with regards to the grey area of adverse weather conditions/schools closing/travel chaos?

If and I expect it will,current model guidance continues along the same lines into next week,you will see these things happening from Tuesday or wenesday onwards

The Specialist

Petal765 wrote: »

Does anyone know if the government have put plans in place with regards to red weather warnings, schools, travelling to and from work etc following on from Storm Ophelia?

I know there was a lot of confusion about it at the time, I know at the end of the day if you can't travel to work then you can't travel but if things do turn out for the worst has anything been learnt with regards to the grey area of adverse weather conditions/schools closing/travel chaos?

Should be common sense really - if there is a Red Warning then forget about work and stay indoors.

LEIN

Petal765 wrote: »

Does anyone know if the government have put plans in place with regards to red weather warnings, schools, travelling to and from work etc following on from Storm Ophelia?

I know there was a lot of confusion about it at the time, I know at the end of the day if you can't travel to work then you can't travel but if things do turn out for the worst has anything been learnt with regards to the grey area of adverse weather conditions/schools closing/travel chaos?

It will be at least Monday before anything like that will be issued.
It's far too early atm.

Calibos

sideswipe wrote: »

Okay so, the excitement is palpable in here this morning! I take it this is us cresting an 'up' section of the roller coaster?
Or is everything locked in place now for snow and ice lovers?

Cresting an up section tbh and I'm one of the ones giddy with excitement. I fully expect there to be a few more dips and crests with each new model run over the next few days before we know for certain whats going to happen.

MissMoc

Is there a post limit to any threads on boards? This is going to explode by the weekend.

George Sunsnow

John.Icy wrote: »

This needs to be kept in mind. As someone else eluded to aswell, GFS has a south of east flow - more awkward for us in terms of Irish sea action.

Just shows the knife edge we're on still in terms of snowfall (the cold is coming no matter). Perfect alignment and you get the crazy snowy ECM. Change the angle of the isobars a little; you get the GFS and more less fun.

Always nice to have ECM showing the preferred scenario however.

Just in relation to this
Even if you do have a South or southeast flow you are still pulling in the same air source but with a bigger fetch,I suspect two things might happen there (1) longer Sea fetch bigger showers and (2) the air would be too cold for the longer modification to marginalize snow
What I expect it would do would make the fetch similar to the North Sea fetch pummeling the east coast of the UK
This is indeed an unprecedented and unique situation
It’s the type of scenario that the ECM had a few days ago

Output is jumpy at the moment probably thanks to the immediate confusion of the 2nd strat warm so we may wait until Sunday for finer details

catrat12

I know it’s early days but it’s already turning a bit eerie in glencullen like something is going to happen

John.Icy

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just in relation to this
Even if you do have a South or southeast flow you are still pulling in the same air source but with a bigger fetch,I suspect two things might happen there (1) longer Sea fetch bigger showers and (2) the air would be too cold for the longer modification to marginalize snow
What I expect it would do would make the fetch similar to the North Sea fetch pummeling the east coast of the UK
This is indeed an unprecedented and unique situation
It’s the type of scenario that the ECM had a few days ago

Output is jumpy at the moment probably thanks to the immediate confusion of the 2nd strat warm so we may wait until Sunday for finer details

A longer fetch for perhaps Cork/Waterford etc. For Dublin down to Wexford along the East Coast a SE wind produces the shortest fetch the Irish sea can offer? If that's what you're discussing.

I don't doubt it'll be snow falling - but the Irish sea works best for most under a North East. Maybe the IMBYism is getting to me.

EDIT: Accidently hit post. Not much need for your below reply!

George Sunsnow

John.Icy wrote: »

A longer fetch for perhaps Cork/Waterford etc. For Dublin down to Wexford along the East Coast

Same

Calibos

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just in relation to this
Even if you do have a South or southeast flow you are still pulling in the same air source but with a bigger fetch,I suspect two things might happen there (1) longer Sea fetch bigger showers and (2) the air would be too cold for the longer modification to marginalize snow
What I expect it would do would make the fetch similar to the North Sea fetch pummeling the east coast of the UK
This is indeed an unprecedented and unique situation
It’s the type of scenario that the ECM had a few days ago

Output is jumpy at the moment probably thanks to the immediate confusion of the 2nd strat warm so we may wait until Sunday for finer details

Surely that would only be good for the South Coast and maybe north Leinster and the Armagh and Down coast. Even Arklow would be in the Wales Snow shadow I would have thought

George Sunsnow

Calibos wrote: »

Surely that would only be good for the South Coast and maybe north Leinster and the Armagh and Down coast. Even Arklow would be in the Wales Snow shadow I would have thought

In 1991 Arklow just had snow flurries in the easterly until the flow went ENE
Then there was an almighty dumping
Dublin (especially north Dublin) down to Bray got lots of streamers and cover
There will be a lot of variations

Lucyryan1983

Hi! Iv followed boards wether since 2010 but rarely post. This is just to exciting!! I'm in Tallaght at the foot of the Dublin mountains. So far this year we have only seen a dusting that melted quickly but still the most since 2010. Jugging by the chit chat on here I best go order more oil!

George Sunsnow

John.Icy wrote: »

A longer fetch for perhaps Cork/Waterford etc. For Dublin down to Wexford along the East Coast a SE wind produces the shortest fetch the Irish sea can offer? If that's what you're discussing.

I don't doubt it'll be snow falling - but the Irish sea works best for most under a North East. Maybe the IMBYism is getting to me.

EDIT: Accidently hit post. Not much need for your below reply!

I’d expect showers in a south or southeast flow to pummel cork Waterford and south wexford like they’ve never been pummeled before
But I’d also expect two other things,that the showers would be big enough to travel well beyond their initial land fall and for shallow low features to pop up in that very unstable air at very short notice which would change wind direction and areas affected quite dramatically

teddybones

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

While coastal convergence from land friction does enhance sea-effect convection in coastal areas, I can't see anywhere getting 60-80 cm of snowfall from this, except maybe some northeast-facing upslopes under 24 hours of streamers.

Thank God i live on a North East facing hill in Wicklow town! Will pray for 24hours of streamers ans sure a bit of thundersnow for the craic. Loving this thread

Reckless Abandonment

6z looking great up to 180 cold and snowy From a purely selfish point of view still not liking the South East flow (South Dublin ) but its only one possibility out of many. Cold is a coming

Snow angel

Holy cow!!! 🀯🀯🀯

diceyd

Hmmm!!!

Tabnabs

Just wow!

davidsr20

Looking forward to this now. In general this really has been a fairy bad winter in terms of cold and storms again the last 5 years I think.

Cantona's Collars

Time to start stocking up on dishwasher salt. It's great stuff for melting ice. I remember the last big cold spell and the people working in the local supermarket couldn't understand why they were selling out of it.People copped on that it's a great deicer and cheap.

brevity

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/m.wikihow.com/Prepare-for-a-Winter-Storm%3famp=1

Might be time to send this around to friends and family?

I love extreme weather and child in me is super excited but the adult in me is worried about that part of the roof...

Also, Argos have travel snow shovels for 5.99€

Nettle Soup

Tabnabs wrote: »

Just wow!

Just so I am clear, are these temps at 1.5km or ground level?
Beautiful model

JazzyJ

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Just so I am clear, are these temps at 1.5km or ground level?
Beautiful model

850hPa - so around 1500m. But it is also the difference from average rather than the actual temperature.