Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Don't mean to be Dublin centric,But how deep will this snow be in Dublin and how long will it last

George Sunsnow

On this run still snowing heavy in Cork city on wenesday of next week having started on Monday ,piling up

Rougies

Pentecost wrote: »

An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.

The charts shown with -15 are for the temperature at 850hpa (about 1.5 km above ground), daytime temperatures would hover around freezing and nighttime temperatures would generally be about -2 to -8 (highest in the east). But it's quite possible to get down as low as -15/16 at night in places with laying snow away from the east coast as happened in Dec 2010.

JCX BXC

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Don't mean to be Dublin centric,But how deep will this snow be in Dublin and how long will it last

Not a iota, and we won't until the hours before. We want the cold in before we look at precip!

George Sunsnow

km79 wrote: »

And at night ?

You’d be better off not knowing
But in east Galway below -10 assuming most of Leinster and Munster is under a deep blanket of snow

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

On this run still snowing heavy in Cork city on wenesday of next week having started on Monday ,piling up

I hope those showers are spreading to inland Cork!

Stephen Hawkins football boots

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Its not an exaggeration to say next week we could see conditions similar to late February 1947 if some of these charts come off, truly exceptional.

What happened in Feb 1947?

snowstorm445

I've never seen anything like this in 7 years of model watching, even during failed, falling-at-the-last-hurdle easterlies which looked hugely promising. Most of the country looks likely to see significant snow and more importantly extreme cold. I have a good feeling the east but especially southern coast (which I vaguely remember missing out a bit in 2010) could see major falls of snow during next week. Absolutely spectacular.

I still have a mild sinking feeling that something will have to give over the next few days (although even a major downgrade at this stage would still mean a decent cold spell), but the cross-model agreement over the past few days is very robust.

I would still urge you all not to get carried away with yourselves just yet. If all this is still there by Friday (give or take a few tweaks) we will definitely be all set. This is going to be a tortuous week, and hopefully it will be worth the wait, but we should really be prepared for every eventuality.

Nettle Soup

Rough idea on how long the beast will stay in Ireland? A week? 2 weeks?

TheMilkyPirate

km79 wrote: »

And at night ?

God knows, Villain who is a member on here recorded -17 I think in Carlow in 2010. He is in a frost hollow but still it shows what is possible.

Pentecost

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps

Rougies wrote: »

The charts shown with -15 are for the temperature at 850hpa (about 1.5 km above ground), daytime temperatures would hover around freezing and nighttime temperatures would generally be about -2 to -8 (highest in the east). But it's quite possible to get down as low as -15/16 at night in places with laying snow away from the east coast as happened in Dec 2010.

Thank you folks. I told you I was an idiot.

lawred2

I won't let hopes get up until the weekend

Timistry

If the models even 80% verify, surely it will be a red warning with a frostbite warning in place too?!

Bicycle

What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?

Kermit.de.frog

If anything remotely like the latest model run by the GFS occurred large parts of this country's infrastructure would be paralysed.

Fun to look at but remember to keep a level head.

On track for the severe end of the spectrum. Will update tomorrow.

George Sunsnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

I hope those showers are spreading to inland Cork!

Oh they will on this run,no doubt about it in my opinion
It’s impossible to be exact
But you look at the sea surface temps and the 850 temps and that long fetch,it’s textbook Lake Ontario stuff
Those could blast in 30 miles handy

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/965720389551906821

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/965719600443817987

gally74

Bicycle wrote: »

What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?

2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.

Timistry

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Oh they will on this run,no doubt about it in my opinion
It’s impossible to be exact
But you look at the sea surface temps and the 850 temps and that long fetch,it’s textbook Lake Ontario stuff
Those could blast in 30 miles handy

Lake effect snow :eek:

RobertKK

I have a Finnish friend and he says next week it is forecast to be -30C in southern Finland.

Bicycle

gally74 wrote: »

2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.

And in the rest of the country?

SeaBreezes

George, thank you with those charts I'm positively giddy!

snowstorm445

gally74 wrote: »

2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.

A flake being spotted falling outside a window at Montrose. :eek:

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

-16c 850 temps over wales... Look where the 510 dam line is :eek:

Good grief. My jaw has just hit the floor. it's as if the globe has flipped to spinning east to west

Colser

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

What happened in Feb 1947?

My dad often speaks about it and says the snow was up to the windows..he was only 6 at the time so that may be slightly exaggerated..ðŸ˜

Stephen Hawkins football boots

nacho libre wrote: »

Good grief. My jaw has just hit the floor. it's as if the globe has flipped to spinning east to west

No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?

BLIZZARD7

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

What happened in Feb 1947?

Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.

nacho libre

km79 wrote: »

And at night ?

i'd say -8, or possibly even lower, over snowfields is possible

Timistry

Colser wrote: »

My dad often speaks about it and says the snow was up to the windows..he was only 6 at the time so that may be slightly exaggerated..ðŸ˜

No exaggeration, drifts covered the top of ESB poles

JCX BXC

And a beautiful end of the chart, with a low pressure system moving down from the north dumping inches of snow countrywide.