Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Villain

The 12 charts were too much for netweather servers they have crashed!

gabeeg

sideswipe wrote: »

Is Monday eve Sunday?

No man, there's a clue to what day it refers to in the words - read them again

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

For people looking for snow fall predictions, it's a good idea to read MT Cranium's posts. Recently he mentioned how snow falls during this cold spell will be largely of the 'now cast' variety, which means watching the weather radars hours or minutes before potential snowfall. Days before, nobody can really be in any way confident about areas that might or might not receive snow. For example, as has been mentioned before, models are generally not good at all at predicting lake-effect snow, which is where we might actually see the majority of the snow coming from in this type of cold spell.

So, even if you see a chart that leaves Cork snow-free, there's SNOW reason (HAAAAAAAA....I'll show myself out) to believe you'll get no snow at all.

Thanks that actually makes sense, even to me 😂 so you're telling me there's a chance...

gabeeg

lawred2 wrote: »

Ah please no... Surely not again

Relax, it's literally cool

Musicman2000

sdanseo wrote: »

How well does the ECM handle streamer activity?

The reason I ask, just for comparison (first image is an upgrade, ECM 0Z vs 12Z at +132/+144 or 6am Tuesday, and the second is a massive downgrade at +228/240hrs or 6am Sunday 4th)

Take those charts with a major pinch of Salt . They are next to useless

Snow angel

Teachers will be hoping schools don’t close. After 2010 the dept of education said it was up to schools individually to make the call and any missed days had to be made up by coming in over the mid term or easter holidays. As a teacher who has a holiday booked during Easter I don’t want to be called in then. But I’m in Sligo so I think we are unlikely to see much from this event except extreme cold, dry frosty days.

NeonCookies

Rewatching Gilmore Girls on Netflix "everything is magical when it snows, everything looks pretty. Do you know that the best things in my life have happened when it snowed?" Literally squealed! Now beautiful snowy scenes for the whole episode.

Definitely felt a lot colder today. Planning on doing some stocking up once I get paid tomorrow. Better safe than sorry!

sryanbruen

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Take those charts with a major pinch of Salt . They are next to useless

They indeed are. I'm still waiting on my 17.7 inches of snow the same charts predicted for me on December 10th 24 hours behind.

https://twitter.com/weathercheckie/status/966592403363762176

BLIZZARD7

sdanseo wrote: »

How well does the ECM handle streamer activity?

The reason I ask, just for comparison (first image is an upgrade, ECM 0Z vs 12Z at +132/+144 or 6am Tuesday, and the second is a massive downgrade at +228/240hrs or 6am Sunday 4th)

A. Those charts are very useless.
B. No the ECM isn't amazing at picking up streamers at all.
C. The 0z run was mainly from repeated frontal events and is waaay out in FI, will definitely change multiple times.

DominoDub

lawred2 wrote: »

Ah please no... Surely not again

I think the Isle of Man only came into play for some in the past, given the wind direction at the time and the fact that the sea area between the two land masses was not long enough for Streamers to form (look up lake effect snow )

Slashermcguirk

The anticipation on this forum waiting for the ‘beast from the east’ reminds me of the film predator with the lads wondering what is out there .......”there is something out there major and it ain’t no man!!”

sryanbruen

Can people please remove images from quotes? It's getting kind of tedious and can understand the pains people like JCX BXC feel when they are quoted.

George Sunsnow

Snow angel wrote: »

Teachers will be hoping schools don’t close. After 2010 the dept of education said it was up to schools individually to make the call and any missed days had to be made up by coming in over the mid term or easter holidays. As a teacher who has a holiday booked during Easter I don’t want to be called in then. But I’m in Sligo so I think we are unlikely to see much from this event except extreme cold, dry frosty days.

A county getting status red will mean a school closure
I’d honestly expect not to rule out some status reds during this spell

Meteorite58

Jaw dropping cold uppers on the ECM 12Z. Going to have some fresh predominantly NE'ly winds along E coasts giving a bitter windchill for the most of next week after Monday ( E'ly ).

Beechwoodspark

sideswipe wrote: »

Is Monday eve Sunday?

I would say Monday evening

catrat12

The big question is though how much snow is Dublin getting

gabeeg

sryanbruen wrote: »

They indeed are. I'm still waiting on my 17.7 inches of snow the same charts predicted for me on December 10th 24 hours behind.

https://twitter.com/weathercheckie/status/966592403363762176

Time to let the anger go, buddy.

lawred2

Those images are nuts

Snow angel

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A county getting status red will mean a school closure
I’d honestly expect not to rule out some status reds during this spell

Yes I’ve already warned my teacher friends in Louth and Dublin of this. I only moved west this year and the east in going to get all the snow!

Beechwoodspark

So are we looking at Dublin airport closed for a number of days next week?

DOCARCH

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So are we looking at Dublin airport closed for a number of days next week?

No. Just delays, if it snows.

sdanseo

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Take those charts with a major pinch of Salt . They are next to useless

sryanbruen wrote: »

They indeed are. I'm still waiting on my 17.7 inches of snow the same charts predicted for me on December 10th 24 hours behind.

https://twitter.com/weathercheckie/status/966592403363762176

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

A. Those charts are very useless.
B. No the ECM isn't amazing at picking up streamers at all.
C. The 0z run was mainly from repeated frontal events and is waaay out in FI, will definitely change multiple times.

Cheers. I know they are crap in terms of actual prediction but I wondered if they were basing their exaggerated totals on the potential for frontal or streamer activity. If it was streamers, I was worried that something had changed making them much less likely for some reason.

Just because they're always wrong doesn't mean the setup didn't change in order to produce different outputs, essentially?

Snow angel wrote: »

Teachers will be hoping schools don’t close. After 2010 the dept of education said it was up to schools individually to make the call and any missed days had to be made up by coming in over the mid term or easter holidays. As a teacher who has a holiday booked during Easter I don’t want to be called in then. But I’m in Sligo so I think we are unlikely to see much from this event except extreme cold, dry frosty days.

If the temp is forecast to fall below -10 or not climb above -2, or if there is more than 8cm of snow forecast and likely to worsen, there would in theory be a red warning. Which would automatically shut down all buses and most likely schools as a direct result.

Practically speaking, it may be impossible to drive long before that especially in Ireland where spilling a few ice cubes into the street is enough to cause mass panic and sudden inability to function in the masses.

John.Icy

Snowfall from streamers will be a watch the radar for developments job for anyone wondering about where and when snow will fall in those kind of setups, so hard to predict. I remember back in 2010 I was under heavy snow for hours, while up the road with Pad (further North up Kildare) was in the IOM shadow. Found it hilarious till the next day he was seeing heavy snow and I had blue skies overhead and could see the clouds from the snow train in the Northern portion of the sky. It'll be fairly localised at times next week, though I'd imagine there's plenty of scope for more widespread snowfall at times also. To sum it up; certain places in the East/South will see alot of snow based on the 12Z runs today.


Also for the sake of sanity on this forum can we BAN (:D ) those useless precip. charts that constantly show countrywide snow in almost every cold setup - except over Cork obviously. Absolute muck charts and just confuse anyone who hasn't discovered how crap they are.

JCX BXC

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So are we looking at Dublin airport closed for a number of days next week?

As has been said several times, we haven't a notion.

gabeeg

Snow angel wrote: »

Yes I’ve already warned my teacher friends in Louth and Dublin of this. I only moved west this year and the east in going to get all the snow!

The east looks set for snow alright. But it's a particular type of snow - Easterly snow generated from convection in the Irish Sea.

The West could see snow if the winds turns Northerly, as was modelled on the GFS last night.
Another route to snow for the West is if a front from the south or west moves up and meets the cold air.

There's definitely a chance for the West in the coming week or so

Gonzo

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So are we looking at Dublin airport closed for a number of days next week?

it could possibly close at certain times if there is alot of snow around or else if everything starts icing up. There doesn't have to be much snow for an airport to close during a very cold spell. Unlikely it would close for more than a few hours at a time.

If theres not much snow than chances are it will mostly stay open.

edit: when I say close I mean delays where flights are grounded. Happened several times during December 2010.

Pangea

Pentecost wrote: »

Been no talk about it in my work at all, except for me casually dropping in an old “I believe it’s to be cold next week” into a couple of conversations.

Some people I spoke to were quite dismissive about it, said that the snow is only for the East and South, won't affect us in Donegal...

DominoDub

I see Met.ie are starting to show the cold in their 5 day Forecast.

With the Irish Sea warmer than the land @6:00 Tuesday Morning

sdanseo

Gonzo wrote: »

it could possibly close at certain times if there is alot of snow around or else if everything starts icing up. There doesn't have to be much snow for an airport to close during a very cold spell. Unlikely it would close for more than a few hours at a time.

If theres not much snow than chances are it will mostly stay open.

DUB was essentially closed for about 4 days in 2010. Runway was reopened regularly but kept closing again due to repeated falls and the fact that through lack of practice it was taking silly amounts of time to clear it.

Stands to reason if it's not being actually done (training can only go so far) regularly, it will be difficult to do it as fast as they might in Krakow or Moscow.

pjohnson

Pangea wrote: »

Some people I spoke to were quite dismissive about it, said that the snow is only for the East and South, won't affect us in Donegal...

Is this not correct?