Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Rougies

Bicycle wrote: »

What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?

https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

3. Snow/Ice Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 8 cm or greater below 250 m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen.


4. Low Temperatures Minima of minus 10C or lower expected. Maxima of minus 2C or lower expected.

I think Met Eireann would have to make a new "Luminous Pink" warning if these charts came off

kod87

while I'm excited about the potential cold, I can see myself in the south midlands being very frustrated again (just like in 2010), cold with no precipitation. But we shall see

George Sunsnow

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?

No it’s -14c at about 5000 feet above sea level
So about -4 to -5c at sea level max
Quite deserving of a few :eek: :eek:

Minister

Heres a bit of info re 1947 et al......

http://www.turtlebunbury.com/history/history_irish/history_irish_big_snow.htm

Donegal Storm

Temperatures probably wouldn't actually be all that low on this GFS run, winds would be gale force and above a lot of the time which would keep the cold air from pooling. Wind chill on the other hand would be absolutely brutal, as low as -11C in the middle of the day next week and lower again overnight. To be taken with a pinch of salt for now obviously but doubt we'll be seeing charts like this again any time soon

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.

It would be "interesting" to say the least seeing a 1947 type event in modern times, especially with so-called global warming, climate change and advanced technology since then.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.

Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings

2013Lara

Tell me that schools will shut so I don't have to think about leaving the house if this happens!

sryanbruen

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings

1947 was far far worse dude.

I posted my February 1947 analysis here in this thread, if you'd like to know about it: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=15

typhoony

surely it can't go wrong, or can it. the only fly in the ointment is the severity of cold that is predicted to build over NE Europe and move it's way westward, not that it makes a huge difference as the worst case scenario is temperatures hovering just above freezing by day. I would prefer to see double digit negative day time temps to our east, none of the online 5 day to 10 day City weather pages are showing anything like that right now. not that they are very reliable in any case.

nacho libre

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?

no those are temperatures at 1.5 km in the air. At near ground level the temperature would be 0 or below. Abosultely incredible for the time of the year!!!

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Thanks for all the explanations and patience with my newbie weather questions

BLIZZARD7

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings

It lasted a lot longer and the snow was much deeper, December 2010 was as cold though.
You won't see weather warnings until 24-36 hours before, Watch the tone of met eireanns forecasts change rapidly over the next few days if this keeps up though.

kingshankly

Jesus lads go easy yous will break the thank you button😂

Pangea

Irish Steve wrote: »

The difference I recall from those years was that when it fell it was wetter snow, so it packed into a sheet of ice on the roads, rather than staying as powder, which made driving on it very different.

Nó wet snow here. Pure dry powder bliss, those were the days Quite incredible really.

Minister

2013Lara wrote: »

Tell me that schools will shut so I don't have to think about leaving the house if this happens!

Don't worry....teachers only need a rumour of anything to have a day off - on health and safety grounds of course!!

Real issue could be pipes freezing so a lot of business may be in difficulty.

George Sunsnow

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Temperatures probably wouldn't actually be all that low on this GFS run, winds would be gale force and above a lot of the time which would keep the cold air from pooling. Wind chill on the other hand would be absolutely brutal, as low as -11C in the middle of the day next week and lower again overnight. To be taken with a pinch of salt for now obviously but doubt we'll be seeing charts like this again any time soon

Against that though,this air mass will be subject to very little modification en route
The vast majority of its journey will be over land (even counting its angle of attack on the poor corkonians and waterfordites) so it won’t need to pool or stay still it will arrive almost as is on this model :eek:

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It lasted a lot longer and the snow was much deeper, December 2010 was as cold though.
You won't see weather warnings until 24-36 hours before, Watch the tone of met eireanns forecasts change rapidly over the next few days if this keeps up though.

IMTs to compare

February 1947; -1.1c
January 1963; -1.6c
December 2010; -0.7c

_Kaiser_

Oh I hope this turns out to be a damp squib. Any bit of snow or ice and commuting becomes a complete nightmare.

nacho libre

Well i've always wanted to see conditions similar to 1947. So i welcome it. I thought i would never experience anything like 2010 again in my life time. I just hope it doesn't downgrade, but i fear some sort of downgrade is inevitable-but it would still be snowy, mind.

BLIZZARD7

It should be added that none of this severity level will be near guaranteed til late in the week, it looks odds on for a notable cold outbreak now though. These charts are nice to look at and Ive never seen anything like it before but things can still change, details on who gets snow and how much won't be known til 24 hours out at minimum.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

kingshankly wrote: »

Jesus lads go easy yous will break the thank you button😂

This deserves a thanks

sryanbruen

2013Lara wrote: »

Tell me that schools will shut so I don't have to think about leaving the house if this happens!

Wouldn't that be great, handy days off.

Those Ophelia days off were great crack .

Lucreto

Working in Ballsbridge might be an interesting experience if this comes to pass.

thecretinhop

To quote paulie walnuts of the sopranos if this comes off "im fcking dreaming here tony!!"

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Against that though,this air mass will be subject to very little modification en route
The vast majority of its journey will be over land (even counting its angle of attack on the poor corkonians and waterfordites) so it won’t need to pool or stay still it will arrive almost as is on this model :eek:

Also think of the lapse rates as it( the largely unmodified air) crosses the realtively warm seas= a conveyor belt of heavy snow showers for parts of Ireland.
As some folks giving their recollections of living through the Winter of 1947 said:
"Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive
But to be young was very heaven.”

We, who love snow, maybe saying the same next week!!!!

Pangea

Steopo wrote: »

Getting really concerned about this now as I've to fly to the US on Monday. If I'm over there in balmy Feb weather (forecast 10c over there) & miss out on the first proper Easterly in 8 years I'll be so pissed off. Need this thing to roll in early Mon morning and force a flight cancellation !!

I love your priorities, take a seat, you're going to fit in nicely here..

Donegal Storm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It should be added that none of this severity level will be near guaranteed til late in the week, it looks odds on for a notable cold outbreak now though. These charts are nice to look at and Ive never seen anything like it before but things can still change, details on who gets snow and how much won't be known til 24 hours out at minimum.

Aye, when charts look close to unprecedented and too good to be true then they probably are. Forecast 6-7 days out are rarely accurate so expect plenty of changes in the days ahead.

The good thing is that an easterly looks close to being locked in so at that stage at the very least we'll get some good dry frosty weather, anything else a bonus

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Nt snow here. Pure dry powder bliss, those were the days Quite incredible really.

Froze were the days Senor Pangea!

Soccarboy11

sryanbruen wrote: »

Wouldn't that be great, handy days off.

Those Ophelia days off were great crack .

Spent the entire day weather watching with those school days off, was totally worth the watch here in cork city! Would love some more days off to watch this event