Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Daniel2590

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Those pressure values I was mentioning earlier were just for an update for anyone who had been following an earlier set of posts about where these synoptics were developing, the models did a pretty good job of pushing that Franz Josef high over from north of Alaska where it was a week ago. And it is the core of the eventual high that shows up over northern Scandinavia in a few more days' time. The dead low I was tracking was a potential feature within the vast cold air mass that could, if it stayed active, spawn meso-scale lows in the North Sea of more interest to us, but at the moment I think only a ghost of that will be left in the circulation by 27th, still it could be the eventual focus for something that develops east of Scotland and tracks towards Ulster. Looking now like it's mostly a case of a frontal zone well south of Ireland that could push moisture into the cold easterly flow and ramp up snowfall amounts.

I would say at this point, the models are advertising a better than 50-50 chance of red alert conditions on 27th to 2nd of March. Potential exists for crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south, it will be more of an enhanced snowfall than localized streamers, those will be the heaviest core of the larger extent of snow, if these charts are halfway accurate. The 850 mb temps are indicating that once heavy snow cover develops across Britain, temperatures there could be -4 to -7 C in snowfall and -10 to -15 (in central England and Wales) in any clearing intervals overnight, so that depth of frigid air will be rushing across the Irish Sea, it will easily form massive streamers but as there is some synoptic scale snowfall potential in the background, these streamers will enhance that lighter snow, would expect totals to be quite staggering if all this comes off. I will post some actual numbers when I feel that the model consensus warrants it, but expect big ones.

thomasj

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Some of us are still here knocking around

Darkmaster?

Cork Boy 53

gabeeg wrote: »

Not unless they change the entire format of the show, buddy

Well,I think the severe cold spell in 2010, Storm Darwin, Ophelia and maybe other weather events of this decade will all get a mention. So could this one if things pan out as predicted.

flanzer

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Those pressure values I was mentioning earlier were just for an update for anyone who had been following an earlier set of posts about where these synoptics were developing, the models did a pretty good job of pushing that Franz Josef high over from north of Alaska where it was a week ago. And it is the core of the eventual high that shows up over northern Scandinavia in a few more days' time. The dead low I was tracking was a potential feature within the vast cold air mass that could, if it stayed active, spawn meso-scale lows in the North Sea of more interest to us, but at the moment I think only a ghost of that will be left in the circulation by 27th, still it could be the eventual focus for something that develops east of Scotland and tracks towards Ulster. Looking now like it's mostly a case of a frontal zone well south of Ireland that could push moisture into the cold easterly flow and ramp up snowfall amounts.

I would say at this point, the models are advertising a better than 50-50 chance of red alert conditions on 27th to 2nd of March. Potential exists for crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south, it will be more of an enhanced snowfall than localized streamers, those will be the heaviest core of the larger extent of snow, if these charts are halfway accurate. The 850 mb temps are indicating that once heavy snow cover develops across Britain, temperatures there could be -4 to -7 C in snowfall and -10 to -15 (in central England and Wales) in any clearing intervals overnight, so that depth of frigid air will be rushing across the Irish Sea, it will easily form massive streamers but as there is some synoptic scale snowfall potential in the background, these streamers will enhance that lighter snow, would expect totals to be quite staggering if all this comes off. I will post some actual numbers when I feel that the model consensus warrants it, but expect big ones.

kittyn

thomasj wrote: »

DM?

Yup ..... The one and only 😉

NAGDEFI

gabeeg wrote: »

That's a ramping

In terms of the lateness of the season for extreme cold Did i say anything about snow;)

gabeeg

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Well,I think the severe cold spell in 2010, Storm Darwin, Ophelia and maybe other weather events will all get a mention. So could this one if things pan out as predicted.

I just think 2018 won't feature in 2020s 'reeling in the years', dude

Too soon. Much too soon.

squarecircles

Looks like the best chance if you want to try and avoid the snow head is head to the northwest or to western/south western coastal extremities.Temperatures seem to recover the best here too during the day and won't fall exceptionally low at night.

Still cold none the less,just unlikely to be disruptive.At least we can sit back and watch the carnage unfold in the east,in the comfort and warmth of our homes.

sdanseo

davidsr20 wrote: »

The tread is really derailing now it’s frozen pipes or sports lol. Any more model updates or when the next guys

Main model updates at 2200, 0400, 1000 and 1600, ECM around 1830 and 0630

In the intervening 6 and 12 hour periods expect coping mechanisms to kick in for those with less willpower

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south.

tl;dr

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Those pressure values I was mentioning earlier were just for an update for anyone who had been following an earlier set of posts about where these synoptics were developing, the models did a pretty good job of pushing that Franz Josef high over from north of Alaska where it was a week ago. And it is the core of the eventual high that shows up over northern Scandinavia in a few more days' time. The dead low I was tracking was a potential feature within the vast cold air mass that could, if it stayed active, spawn meso-scale lows in the North Sea of more interest to us, but at the moment I think only a ghost of that will be left in the circulation by 27th, still it could be the eventual focus for something that develops east of Scotland and tracks towards Ulster. Looking now like it's mostly a case of a frontal zone well south of Ireland that could push moisture into the cold easterly flow and ramp up snowfall amounts.

I would say at this point, the models are advertising a better than 50-50 chance of red alert conditions on 27th to 2nd of March. Potential exists for crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south, it will be more of an enhanced snowfall than localized streamers, those will be the heaviest core of the larger extent of snow, if these charts are halfway accurate. The 850 mb temps are indicating that once heavy snow cover develops across Britain, temperatures there could be -4 to -7 C in snowfall and -10 to -15 (in central England and Wales) in any clearing intervals overnight, so that depth of frigid air will be rushing across the Irish Sea, it will easily form massive streamers but as there is some synoptic scale snowfall potential in the background, these streamers will enhance that lighter snow, would expect totals to be quite staggering if all this comes off. I will post some actual numbers when I feel that the model consensus warrants it, but expect big ones.

Saves this posterity. I haven't seen an update like this since 2010!

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please refrain from discussing and commenting about other posters. Everyone is entitled to their privacy.

NAGDEFI

I kept thinking to myself that the warmest September temperature was around 28C in Valentia on 5th Sep 1991.

March is the the same to winter as September to summer. Next week is going to be like 5 or 6 days in the first week in September hitting 30C:eek:

Kermit.de.frog

It will be reasonable enough to go at least until Wednesday in a more comprehensive forecast tomorrow so what I can do is write that up and update the OP tomorrow.

If a mod wants to post the update because I can't edit it now.:pac:

Anyhow, more tomorrow.

squarecircles

Zombiefied,Can't go to bed,can't leave fone down,keep refreshing, swiping, going crazy.

Anyone relate?

Can someone slap me in the face.

https://youtu.be/i0GW0Vnr9Yc

Spanish Eyes

Will be Mediterranean temps here next week, get your brollies out and your sunscreen sorted FGS.

(just giving the snow god a kick there in case s/he was in a slumber)

gabeeg

squarecircles wrote: »

Zombiefied,Can't go to bed,can't leave fone down,keep refreshing, swiping, going crazy.

Anyone relate?

Can someone slap me in the face.

I'm not exactly sure how long I've been in this zone.

Feels like weeks.

I'm so very tired

Wine Goddess

OMG I'm so excited! I cannot wait to see lying snow and (the two go hand in hand) read other snow lover' responses!
It's mad but part of the joy of snow has now become not only seeing it myself but also reading about other people's happiness in seeing it too!
As well as the almighty craic and laughs reading the comments on the forum.....the Cork snowline will go down in history for me!

For what it's worth I'm expecting easterly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and a nationwide pasting next Friday. Even Cork and the Wesht.

squarecircles

)

Cork Boy 53

gabeeg wrote: »

I just think 2018 won't feature in 2020s 'reeling in the years', dude

Too soon. Much too soon.

I mean the new series of RITY that should be broadcast in 2020 will feature clips of the events of 2010-2019, including weather related ones, but anyway enough already, this has gone off topic.

gabeeg

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I mean the new series of RITY that should be broadcast in 2020 will feature clips of the events of 2010-2019, including weather related ones, but anyway enough already, this has gone off topic.

Dude, we're between model runs.

We may as well have a massive argument about this

Wine Goddess

gabeeg wrote: »

Dude, we're between model runs.

We may as well have a massive argument about this

I really WISH there was a laughs out loud button.

piplip87

kingshankly wrote: »

Heading to Disneyland Paris this day week for a long weekend with two children
Dreading to think how cold it’s going to be
Flat out buying thermal gear today any tips folks on the dos and fonts of trying to keep warm

Use your Magic Hours if you have them, less queues. Fast pass everything to prevent standing in line.

Don't forget the Rocknroller Coaster.

leahyl

Currently listening to “Let it snow” by Deano :-D sure what the heck!

Calibos

Ladies and Gentlemen. I feel I must tell you that......I've been awake since 1:30am Thursday 22nd. If I start quacking like a duck.....you'll know thats the reason why.

If anyone doesn't believe me then they can click on my username and click on 'all posts by Calibos' and then in the left sidebar, 'Weather Forum'. Posting reasonably uninterrupted in this thread for the last 22 hours except for a 6 hour shift in work where I gritted my teeth every time a customer had the temerity to disturb me from my reading of and posting in this thread.

...and its only Thursday...or Friday....or....I don't know anymore....what month is it again??

Cork Boy 53

gabeeg wrote: »

Dude, we're between model runs.

We may as well have a massive argument about this

Nah I`m a lover, not a fighter.;)

humberklog

davidsr20 wrote: »

The tread is really derailing now it’s frozen pipes or sports lol. Any more model updates or when the next guys

Fill your boots...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEaLnjCKoXk

gabeeg

Calibos wrote: »

Ladies and Gentlemen. I feel I must tell you that......I've been awake since 1:30am Thursday 22nd. If I start quacking like a duck.....you'll know thats the reason why.

If anyone doesn't believe me then they can click on my username and click on 'all posts by Calibos' and then in the left sidebar, 'Weather Forum'. Posting reasonably uninterrupted in this thread for the last 22 hours except for a 6 hour shift in work where I gritted my teeth every time a customer had the temerity to disturb me from my reading of and posting in this thread.

...and its only Thursday...or Friday....or....I don't know anymore....what month is it again??

It's ok man, you're amongst friends.

Well, that is as long as you agree with my cold and snow-depth predictions

sdanseo

Calibos wrote: »

Ladies and Gentlemen. I feel I must tell you that......I've been awake since 1:30am Thursday 22nd. If I start quacking like a duck.....you'll know thats the reason why.

If anyone doesn't believe me then they can click on my username and click on 'all posts by Calibos' and then in the left sidebar, 'Weather Forum'. Posting reasonably uninterrupted in this thread for the last 22 hours except for a 6 hour shift in work where I gritted my teeth every time a customer had the temerity to disturb me from my reading of and posting in this thread.

...and its only Thursday...or Friday....or....I don't know anymore....what month is it again??

I can relate. I sit with my back to the main route to the canteen. Pretty sure my colleagues all think I'm clinically insane when they look over expecting an excel sheet and see brightly coloured weather charts.

piplip87

Calibos wrote: »

Ladies and Gentlemen. I feel I must tell you that......I've been awake since 1:30am Thursday 22nd. If I start quacking like a duck.....you'll know thats the reason why.

If anyone doesn't believe me then they can click on my username and click on 'all posts by Calibos' and then in the left sidebar, 'Weather Forum'. Posting reasonably uninterrupted in this thread for the last 22 hours except for a 6 hour shift in work where I gritted my teeth every time a customer had the temerity to disturb me from my reading of and posting in this thread.

...and its only Thursday...or Friday....or....I don't know anymore....what month is it again??

Keep going, fall asleep Wednesday, wake up Sunday and miss the whole thing