Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

gabeeg

lucernarian wrote: »

More a case of the boy who cried wolf. The models were worse 10 years ago, so flagging potential disturbances was a tricky business. Nov 2010 was really tricky and I only took to the phone maybe 18 hours ahead of what was expected. No one died, but I'm sure there was hardship that wouldn't have happened if I was more certain.

In my own defense, streamers are tough to predict when the upper level winds are so important as to where they actually fall.

I think you're being too hard on yourself. I bet almost nobody expects you to be some sort of weather defense expert.

Unless of course you work for met eireann

gabeeg

Calibos wrote: »

Cya bright and early in the morning gabeeg!

I'd PM you sleeping tips, but they mostly involve getting very pissed

NAGDEFI

Gabeeg you're absolutely mad..but in the nicest possible way:D

lucernarian

gabeeg wrote: »

Unless of course you work for met eireann

I haven't been criticized for weather forecasts driving away customers from hotels in Donegal, if that's what you mean

Today's chilly breeze on the east coast has focused minds a bit.

JanuarySnowstor

The latest Met Eireann forecast is quite extra ordinary. It mentions northwesterly winds twice for next week.
Whoever wrote that really should be questioned??!!

kod87

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The latest Met Eireann forecast is quite extra ordinary. It mentions northwesterly winds twice for next week.
Whoever wrote that really should be questioned??!!

oh come on, they meant north easterly, mistakes happen, i'm sure they will change it soon.

Reckless Abandonment

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The latest Met Eireann forecast is quite extra ordinary. It mentions northwesterly winds twice for next week.
Whoever wrote that really should be questioned??!!

Force of habit
Typo id say

JanuarySnowstor

kod87 wrote: »

oh come on, they meant north easterly, mistakes happen, i'm sure they will change it soon.

It looks rushed to me with little talk of snow.
Considering events next week you would imagine something more in depth is necessary

kod87

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks rushed to me with little talk of snow.
Considering events next week you would imagine something more in depth is necessary

Yeah I agree, i think they will wait until maybe saturday before they ramp it up more. They have been very vague on purpose

igCorcaigh

So, I just looked at a ME forecast from Dec 2010 on YouTube. Lows of -15C and daytime temps of just -6C in some parts of the country.

Could we be looking at those types of temperatures again for next week?

M.T. Cranium

Those really low temps in Dec 2010 came around Christmas when high pressure built up over the snow pack. The balance between snowfall and clear skies in this coming spell is a bit hard to foresee, and it is going to be first of March by the time the coldest air is around, so will be tough to keep max temps below -2 C in any event (at lower elevations). The range of possible minimum temps is probably -7 to -15 C over the entire grid, by the end of the cold spell.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks rushed to me with little talk of snow.
Considering events next week you would imagine something more in depth is necessary

They sometimes update it again after the ECM. I'd be surprised if we don't get a weather advisory from them either today or tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

The ECM is once again stunning (to me at least), almost the perfect set-up for heavy snow by 28th Feb into 2nd of March. The depth of this cold outbreak is something rarely seen even in historic cold spells of the past (perhaps they got that cold because the air was not full of cloud and snow). But if you wanted to compare snowstorms, the parameters look better than any of the historic snowfall events that I consulted with the possible exception of early February 1947.

kod87

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The ECM is once again stunning (to me at least), almost the perfect set-up for heavy snow by 28th Feb into 2nd of March. The depth of this cold outbreak is something rarely seen even in historic cold spells of the past (perhaps they got that cold because the air was not full of cloud and snow). But if you wanted to compare snowstorms, the parameters look better than any of the historic snowfall events that I consulted with the possible exception of early February 1947.

When MT posts like this, it just gives me tingly sensations in various places.

Lumen

Ew.

ps200306

Lumen wrote: »

Ew.

I thought that was a song by Frank Zappa.

M.T. Cranium

I would be adding east Ulster, Cornwall and Devon to those warnings, and extending them further west in the Midlands. The pace is picking up, the cold air is going to rush in on Sunday night in Britain and Monday morning to mid-day in Ireland.

The best synoptics for snow in Ireland start on the 27th but peak on 28th and 1st-2nd of March. If we can believe the model consensus.

The ground truth back in Russia is fairly convincing, there's some place called Holm just east of the Lithuanian border sitting at -30 C now, it's close to where the current analysis has the 504 dm thickness contour, which is supposed to cross Britain and get into Ireland (perhaps 507-510 may be the best we'll see but still) at some point during this merriment. I don't expect it to maintain -30 C but there's a fair ways to go before that parcel of air stops being wintry and if it then gets saturated, well ...

mickger844posts

The ECM 0z is a thing of beauty. Dream output keeps on coming. Deep exceptionally cold output well into FI.
Met Eireann should issue warnings over the weekend as this will have a huge impact on everyone. Going on their criteria a Red warning would be warranted.
Historic days for snow and cold lovers for sure.

leahyl

From Met Eireann:

“It will turn progressively colder from Tuesday onwards with wintry showers becoming more widespread in moderate to fresh northeasterly winds. By Thursday it is likely that it will be become exceptionally cold and day time temperatures may hover just around freezing or even below freezing in some places with widespread severe frost at night.”

munsterlegend

What a roller coaster, Kermit is urging caution and MT is ramping!

King of Spades

leahyl wrote: »

From Met Eireann:

“It will turn progressively colder from Tuesday onwards with wintry showers becoming more widespread in moderate to fresh northeasterly winds. By Thursday it is likely that it will be become exceptionally cold and day time temperatures may hover just around freezing or even below freezing in some places with widespread severe frost at night.”

Some forecasters struggle to mention the word snow at Met Eireann. Wintry showers would lead you to believe it’ll be some sort of sleet, hail mix.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks rushed to me with little talk of snow.
Considering events next week you would imagine something more in depth is necessary

King of Spades wrote: »

Some forecasters struggle to mention the word snow at Met Eireann. Wintry showers would lead you to believe it’ll be some sort of sleet, hail mix.

The word snow has to be approved by all forecasters before going into the forecast. One disagreed and would only go as far as 'schleet'.

Only joking Gerry. I saw him on Rte recently being interviewed and he was talking about the snow in monaghan. He seems to like it as much as the rest of us.

ninebeanrows

Mouthwatering EC today

bazlers

Hi All,
Live in the border of Offaly and Kildare so East Midlands ,Centre Leinster area.
So just wondering about snowfall disruption going by latest charts. The chat is south and east coasts bearing the worst, if that was deemed a red alert would I be considered yellow?
Or is it too early or am I just an annoyance by even asking🙂 thanks guys

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Mouthwatering EC today

Have you concerns like Kermit with the icon and navgem output?

Oneiric 3

A certain epicness to the sky this morning. Broken jagged cloud with a yellowish reddish tinge behind them to the east. Winds getting boisterous too.

My kind of weather

M.T. Cranium

I don't have a clear sense of how much snow potential exists, but these are the ranges by probability:

no snow at all other than a few places with 1-3 cm __ 10%

widespread 5-10 cm, a few local 15 cm ___________ 20%

widespread 10-20 cm, a few local 30 cm __________ 35%

widespread 15-30 cm, a few local 40 cm __________ 25%

widespread 20-40 cm, local 50-60 cm ____________ 10%

If one of those juicy lows from around Portugal makes a loop around north-central Biscay then look at the lower portion of that table, if it's just non-stop easterly winds and cold air, might be near the middle, if the flow gets all disrupted into erratic troughs and lows, would have to look at it case by case and the whole spread comes into play.

The same menu applies to Britain except that I would drop the top category out altogether and add its 10% to the next two down.

By the way, we have not talked much about Northern Ireland and I know we get a few readers living there, this could be very heavy snow in Armagh and Down if there are intervals of east-southeast winds, and otherwise in all of Ulster with northeast winds. And with any clear spells, the western counties including Donegal could see some exceptionally low overnight readings.

George Sunsnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

Have you concerns like Kermit with the icon and navgem output?

The icon and navgem are tools usually dragged out to show something otherwise unlikely
The otherwise unlikely is usually cold so my view on these is no different now when they’re wheeled out showing something different

I’m expecting with the depth of severe cold advecting westward into Ireland from Russia that what we will get is more and more severe cold and snowy outcomes as we get closer to next week,there is no escaping this

gerrybhoy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The ECM is once again stunning (to me at least), almost the perfect set-up for heavy snow by 28th Feb into 2nd of March. The depth of this cold outbreak is something rarely seen even in historic cold spells of the past (perhaps they got that cold because the air was not full of cloud and snow). But if you wanted to compare snowstorms, the parameters look better than any of the historic snowfall events that I consulted with the possible exception of early February 1947.

I just got rid of my morning wood then i see this..sexual

homolumo

gerrybhoy wrote: »

I just got rid of my morning wood then i see this..sexual

Don’t be getting rid of wood; you will need it for fuel in the coming days