Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

leahyl

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’m expecting a full house suite of monumental cold and snow across all models this evening because the dynamics have not changed,the cause of next weeks weather is relentlessly growing and relentlessly edging in our direction

What a comeback to that awful post by Kermit

dacogawa

munsterlegend wrote: »

Just when Met Eireann come on board Kermit decides to throw a spanner in the works. If his fears are proven right we may as well have ker-Met.ie as the national weather service.

I'll get my coat.

I think Kermit is smartly playing his cards close to his chest on this one, waiting for the next charts and if they turn up I've a feeling we'll see him (and everyone else) go all in.

I never trust anything over 96 hours out but the odds are firmly stacked for an outcome after that time range...

carltonleon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's a minority and unlikely to verify but it's an outcome that can't be discarded.

Jaysus lads calm down .... some of you are acting like it is all over ... did youse actually miss what Kermit said .. Calm down ...... still highly likely but Kermit is just saying there is a slim possibility of a downgrade .... A SLIM POSSIBILITY !!!:D

Drumpot

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I was hoping today to update the forecast in the OP with something more subtle and comprehensive at least until Wednesday. Looks like it will have to wait until this evening as there has been a bit of a wobble in at least two of the models overnight to something more benign and potentially less cold for us.

It's a minority and unlikely to verify but it's an outcome that can't be discarded.

Hopefully this will be resolved this afternoon and i'll update the forecast then.

Delighted that I only saw this after texting all friends and family with a cold snap warning and a link to this thread . .

torres9kop

MEDICATION TIME!!!!!!    If these ups and downs continue

munsterlegend

dacogawa wrote: »

I think Kermit is smartly playing his cards close to his chest on this one, waiting for the next charts and if they turn up I've a feeling we'll see him (and everyone else) go all in.

I never trust anything over 96 hours out but the odds are firmly stacked for an outcome after that time range...

I'm not worried at at. I know Kermit's concern but it's only a minor one which needs watching.

Nettle Soup

munsterlegend wrote: »

I'm not worried at at. I know Kermit's concern but it's only a minor one which needs watching.

Can someone get MT out of bed to clarify this potential downgrade?

Darwin

Met eireann are on board with a yellow placeholder warning issued at midday which is always a good sign:

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Exceptionally cold weather is forecast for next week with significant wind chill and severe frosts. Disruptive snow showers are expected from Tuesday onwards, particularly in the east and southeast.

Issued:
Friday 23 February 2018 12:00

Valid:
Friday 23 February 2018 12:07 to Friday 02 March 2018 12:00

Tabnabs

This thread will drive me to drink

TheMilkyPirate

Harry Palmr wrote: »

/\ they all have the same info /\, interpreting it is the name of the game. It's an art built on science to a degree.

Funny how some people ramp in the face of the official data and get a thank you for it, yet if they downgraded on the basis of the same numbers they'd get told off

People like to ramp mike. It's what makes model watching so exciting. Imagine you're going to croke park for a huge game involving your county, Do you want to sit beside your mate who is full of optimism and joy or your other mate who is bringing out every possible scenario of why you might not win.

If we ramp the bollox out of it and it doesn't happen then so what. We're adults we can deal with the disappointment

torres9kop

Could that downgrade mean instead of 15 inches of snow in me front garden we get 10 inches?
Happy enough with that

carltonleon

torres9kop wrote: »

Could that downgrade mean instead of 15 inches of snow in me front garden we get 10 inches?
Happy enough with that

What fcuking downgrade ????

spoonerhead

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I was hoping today to update the forecast in the OP with something more subtle and comprehensive at least until Wednesday. Looks like it will have to wait until this evening as there has been a bit of a wobble in at least two of the models overnight to something more benign and potentially less cold for us.

It's a minority and unlikely to verify but it's an outcome that can't be discarded.

Hopefully this will be resolved this afternoon and i'll update the forecast then.

https://youtu.be/1vNiRThC6H8

torres9kop

the one the frog just mentioned

Calibos

torres9kop wrote: »

I knew it.  Too good to be true.  Feck it anyway

There was a slight downgrade in the ICON and Arpege (sp?) last night which are two less trusted models anyway. Put it this way, if only the Icon and Arpege were forcasting snow but the big three models were't, we'd be trusting the Big 3 and not these two. As it stands the Big 3 of the GFS, ECM and UKMO are still full steam ahead and accelerating so to speak and there was a slight downgrade in the two lesser trusted models. As someone else said, reading between the lines, Kermit the Frog is simply holding back his Apocalyptic set in stone forecast until ICON and Arpege come back in line with the Big 3. It is monmentally more likely that they'll fall back in line with the Big 3 than it is for the Big 3 to fall in line with the little Two!

TLDR: Don't worry.

Lucreto

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I would like one of these please.

I want to experience once digging out the car. Something to tell the grandkids.

lucernarian

seamus wrote: »

No. Running water does not prevent freezing. What it does is reduce the pressure in the system and allow for expansion, making pipes less likely to burst when they do freeze.
This is not really necessary in your attic tank system since there's plenty of space in the tank for expansion.
This is really only necessary in taps that are directly mains fed and where the water pipes run close to the surface or are otherwise very exposed.

After burst pipes, the second biggest cause of flooding following a big freeze are unattended taps (in holiday homes, sheds, etc) that have been left open.

What you said is technically correct, but mains pipes and water are kept in the ground (the larger ones being buried typically deeper) and might be at, say, 7 celsius. If the water in your pipes is heading towards freezing, replacing that with "warmer" water from the mains will reduce at least the meter from being affected. Of course, it's a terrible idea for a whole lot of reasons and we suffered those crippling water shortages because people thought they'd just run taps everywhere "just in case".

Normal usage alone should be enough to protect a meter, plus a bit of carpet maybe. It's the holiday homes or abandoned buildings where the worst problems with pipes freezing take place.

carltonleon

carltonleon wrote: »

Jaysus lads calm down .... some of you are acting like it is all over ... did youse actually miss what Kermit said .. Calm down ...... still highly likely but Kermit is just saying there is a slim possibility of a downgrade .... A SLIM POSSIBILITY !!!:D

I can't believe I have to quote myself ..... That's what this thread is doing to me !!!1

Fitzo123

Understand that snow is a nowcast situation but I'm on the edge here trying to comprehend whats in store for Sligo town. I'm thinking we could be facing -10 direction temps and perhaps snow coming from ME winds or Atlantic lows colliding with the cold airmass...thoughts?

Lumen

Well, at least it'll be cold.

Snow cannon boardsie group buy?

pilly

As someone who has to go in and out all day I do not want those low temperatures without some snow. Feck that.

rameire

torres9kop wrote: »

Could that downgrade mean instead of 15 inches of snow in me front garden we get 10 inches?
Happy enough with that

most im sure would be very happy with 10inches, some wouldnt be able to handle it,
its still a whopper.

Mtx

Why are we trusting a frog? What are his qualifications!

Reckless Abandonment

Fitzo123 wrote: »

Understand that snow is a nowcast situation but I'm on the edge here trying to comprehend whats in store for Sligo town. I'm thinking we could be facing -10 direction temps and perhaps snow coming from ME winds or Atlantic lows colliding with the cold airmass...thoughts?

All of the above really.

Snow angel

GFS rolling out now

Cantona's Collars

From Kermit in the technical thread.

"No change. It's a possibility. No more than that. Favored outcome is still the severe end of the spectrum.

We'll know more shortly."

It's just 2 models showing a slight variation in what's on the way.

royalflush2003

torres9kop wrote: »

Could that downgrade mean instead of 15 inches of snow in me front garden we get 10 inches?
Happy enough with that

Yes that would be correct 😉

Gaoth Laidir

Just for fun...

Reckless Abandonment

Mtx wrote: »

Why are we trusting a frog? What are his qualifications!

Why not. Heard a story of a bird kissing one before.. that seemed work out ok.

Colonel Claptrap

rameire wrote: »

most im sure would be very happy with 10inches, some wouldnt be able to handle it,
its still a whopper.

That's what she said.