Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

Supercell

TAF AMD EIDW 281604Z 2816/0112 08022KT 9999 FEW010 BKN020
TEMPO 2816/0112 1200 -SHSNGS BKN008 BKN014CB
TEMPO 2816/0106 09025G35KT
PROB40
TEMPO 2816/0112 0800 SHSN BKN004
PROB40
TEMPO 2819/2823 10028G40KT
TEMPO 0108/0112 08030G45KT

Light graupel type showers until midday tomorrow with a good possibility of moderate snow showers in the same time frame.
However a good probability of the wind going back to 100 (ESE) again, which may kill showers off again (in the Dublin area) between 7PM and 11PM tonight.
Very windy and getting more so, not a night to be out and about.

revelman

Could any of the experts explain why my particular pocket of south Cork (just outside Kinsale) is getting such heavy snow while little is falling just a few miles north of here?. Is the coastal wind/pressure preventing this from coming inland?The sheer amount of snow we are getting here is astounding (and I spent 3 years living in Austria so I know what snow is). It is just non stop and accumulating rapidly. Apologies if this is a stupid question. I know little about this but am fascinated.

Supercell

Latest Dublin metar has wind gone back to 100, hoping for a late late show again.

patneve2

Yes it's not the best for the south dublin coast atm. Most models show some ppn later on though and convective activity sometimes has a tendency to strengthen after dark.

JCX BXC

5pm TAF's are a bit confusing, they're mentioning show showers, not something you normally would think to get when you've a band of snow, however Cork appears to have snow from 12pm and Shannon from 2pm.

Enjoy it everyone!

SeaBreezes

revelman wrote: »

Could any of the experts explain why my particular pocket of south Cork (just outside Kinsale) is getting such heavy snow while little is falling just a few miles north of here?. Is the coastal wind/pressure preventing this from coming inland?The sheer amount of snow we are getting here is astounding (and I spent 3 years living in Austria so I know what snow is). It is just non stop and accumulating rapidly. Apologies if this is a stupid question. I know little about this but am fascinated.

I'm no expert but follow the snow showers on netweather radar and you can see it's due to the direction of the wind, the long sea fetch for lake effect snow and the showers are just not being pushed inland. That will change. I am like you near Kinsale. We're going to be buried tomorrow!

sdanseo

TAF only goes to 6pm tomorrow on one line

the next 4 TAFs will be important as Emma starts to come into 24hr range

sryanbruen

Back into an easterly by +96 hrs on the ECM 12z. To be honest, I'm not focusing past Storm Emma because the uncertainties are unreal beyond it with a jet stream so far south and the weird behaviour of the stratosphere continuing!

nacho libre

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-354.91,47.95,3000/loc=-2.694,50.509

Save it for posterity!

WolfeEire

ECM strongly backing a cold reload after Saturday. An unstable airflow as well

space2ground1

Very little new lying snow in Waterford today and very few heavy showers. I’m watching the models during the day and just wondering is it the narrow stretch of water between here and wales that has limited the precip on the coast here? I don’t see anything on RainToday for example to indicate imminent showers.

Villain

sryanbruen wrote: »

Back into an easterly by +96 hrs on the ECM 12z. To be honest, I'm not focusing past Storm Emma because the uncertainties are unreal beyond it with a jet stream so far south and the weird behaviour of the stratosphere continuing!

I just saw that and GFS is moving that way too, second SSW starting to feed into models maybe?

Daniel2590

Huge difference in the 12z ECM vs. the 0z ECM

0z +168h



12z +144h



Huge cold pool building over Scandinavia this time

Darwin

ECMWF 12z rolling out now, and to my surprise showing extended cold with -8 uppers resuming Monday onwards. No sign of any sudden thaw.

gabeeg

UKMO backs it up

kod87

Darwin wrote: »

ECMWF 12z rolling out now, and to my surprise showing extended cold with -8 uppers resuming Monday onwards. No sign of any sudden thaw.

Classic example of models failing to grasp how difficult it is to shift real cold air.

Gremlin

kod87 wrote: »

Classic example of models failing to grasp how difficult it is to shift real cold air.

If you look back at the *real* cold snaps of the past. They are rarely short events. I suspect this one won't be any different. Weather models do seem geared to re-establish the status-quo as soon as possible.

Gonzo

looking increasingly like Ireland will be back/staying in the freeezer for next week if those charts stay like that!.

Perhaps this will be like 2010.. a two parter with a few days intermission in between!.

irishfeen

So if the cold is so hard to shift as these models are suggesting, could the transfer of Snow to Rain predicted on Friday/Saturday in the south be subject to change?

sryanbruen

Villain wrote: »

I just saw that and GFS is moving that way too, second SSW starting to feed into models maybe?

It would be about the minimum point of effect of the Canadian Warming yes so maybe but some stratosphere experts have told me that impacts won't be felt in the troposphere until the second half of March? Maybe they were wrong. They said that right before we had the third warming spike yesterday which was rather warmer than the major SSW of 11-13 February but not as warm as the Canadian Warming of 18/19 February.

The temperatures of model runs were not in sync with the path of the Polar Jet at all. Here's comparisons of the paths the Polar Jet takes this week and within the next week after Storm Emma. You'd think it'd be much colder with the jet that far south into Europe?

Too much uncertainty beyond +48 hrs to worry about for now!

sdanseo

12 ECM showing constant snow for 36hrs up to Friday midnight. Most of it moderate. Almost no let up in between these two grabs for the south and east.

Warning on Friday may well have to be extended.

nacho libre

The ECM may have been reading from the same script as M.T. Cranium

Meteorite58

Looking very windy going into Thurs night and look at those windchill readings!

Meteorite58

Reckless Abandonment

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM may have been reading from the same script as M.T. Cranium

M.T. lives in Canada= Canadian Warming ... coincidence?? I think not

Gaoth Laidir

Snow depths from the hourly synops today. I also stuck in my few measurements from Tallaght through the day.

Meteorite58

Lets see who gets the best prediction. Impossible really to fully predict but in general all models going for a spell of snow and cold to remember.

Gaoth Laidir

bazlers wrote: »

Hi All,
Sorry Mods if in wrong thread but got no response. Just wondering is it possible to know accurately how far North the storm goes Tomorrow eve/ Friday. Will it go further say a line around Offaly Kildare?

The snow line will most likely extend north of Offaly Kildare come Friday morning.

Donegal Storm

Already been blizzard-like whiteout conditions here in Kildare for the past number of hours with significant extra accumulation on top of the already significant accumulation from earlier. If tomorrow actually happens as per some forecasts it could go down as the biggest snow event I'll ever see in this country, incredible synoptics. Even what's happened in the past few hours is something I've very rarely, if ever experienced before in this country!


This is what Arome makes of things up to Friday morning, worth noting that it hasn't even picked up on the current streamers so add another 10cm probably to the totals in the east. The front is far from finished at that point as well so there'd be further accumulations through Friday

nacho libre

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

M.T. lives in Canada= Canadian Warming ... coincidence?? I think not

aha! and he did mention about us experiencing Canadian weather in an earlier update. Is there no end to the man's talents:pac:

meanwhile the jet is still on a scenic route around us: