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Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1
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FIM also has nationwide event (closest res is France:
NAVGEM (doesnt show precip type):
GEM:
ICON is negative but it has not forecast any precip activity for Ireland this morning which for the most part is WAAAAAY off.0 -
Durrow: Overnight low -9.7c air. Lowest windchill -13.1c. Grass minimum only -5.2c! Snowdepth 9cm.
I think red for here is warranted.
Meanwhile - this FAX.
I'm suspicious of the upper warm front:
This was a flop for Jan 2010 the last time I seen something like it.0 -
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »As the gradient tightens next six hours, this light to moderate sea effect snow will tend to get more concentrated into heavy bands and the pressure falls will turn the wind slightly northeast from Bray north, while it's likely that strong southeast winds will downslope off the Welsh highlands and rip across towards Wicklow. This will set up convergence of sea effect regimes and then the storm's snowfall arriving will converge with the streamers. This may lead to locally heavy banding by evening over the central east coast.
Bonus snow for the east if this scenario materialises MT. The HIRLAM for early this evening gives an increase in activity in a band near the east coast in advance of the frontal bands to the south.
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Models starting to agree on easterly next week, baby steps though.
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For me the only issue with the red warning in Dublin is how it is specific to Snow/Ice. This is ultimately a combination warning - here in Dublin 7 we have around 10cm of lying snow already and plenty of continuing showers. There is 100% cloud cover so far this morning, so absolutely no solar melting, and temperatures are remaining very low. Add into this the fact that 50% of the models are showing a significant amount of precipitation for the greater Dublin area, and there is no real clarity over how much or how little we'll get, even less than 12 hours out.
Then you add in the fact that, as above, winds are due to be very intense today and overnight (potentially an Orange level warning by itself if seen in isolation), and the fact that most of the snow has been extremely dry and powdery so will easily be blown around by the wind. And the icy condition of the streets. There's no doubt in my mind that this red warning is warranted, looking at the charts. I'll add to this that I am a massive snow-lover, but genuinely concerned about how bad conditions currently are, and actually wouldn't mind if the worse didn't occur here.
As a corollary to that - is there anyone willing to say that they think the charts overall show a non-red outcome to a high degree of certainty?0 -
For me the only issue with the red warning in Dublin is how it is specific to Snow/Ice. This is ultimately a combination warning - here in Dublin 7 we have around 10cm of lying snow already and plenty of continuing showers. There is 100% cloud cover so far this morning, so absolutely no solar melting, and temperatures are remaining very low. Add into this the fact that 50% of the models are showing a significant amount of precipitation for the greater Dublin area, and there is no real clarity over how much or how little we'll get, even less than 12 hours out.
Then you add in the fact that, as above, winds are due to be very intense today and overnight (potentially an Orange level warning by itself if seen in isolation), and the fact that most of the snow has been extremely dry and powdery so will easily be blown around by the wind. And the icy condition of the streets. There's no doubt in my mind that this red warning is warranted, looking at the charts. I'll add to this that I am a massive snow-lover, but genuinely concerned about how bad conditions currently are, and actually wouldn't mind if the worse didn't occur here.
As a corollary to that - is there anyone willing to say that they think the charts overall show a non-red outcome to a high degree of certainty?
we've been in RED from last night whatever about the outcome from Emma, I'm veering toward a less severe outcome for areas away from South\Sout-east\East, no evidence just a hunch0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »No question about red for Leinster and Munster. It's the northwest that I'm baffled about. Donegal may be getting some streamer activity now, but regagrding the widespread snowfall and blizzards overnight and tomorrow, I'm not so sure. Now maybe they do have more info at hand that warrants a red in the northwest, but I'm struggling to see it. Also given that the UKMO doesn't have a red for Ulster.
Here's Joanna explaining things after midnight. This was for why they issued the red starting from lastnight, not for tomorrow.
I dunno man, I look at the likes of the ARPEGE accumulations chart (this one is ranged to the end of the current red warning) and I definitely see why it's applied to the northwest :
For Donegal, add in streamers and lying snow and I'd say 8cm of depth in places is a real possibility. It's not like the ARPEGE is some outlier, badly performing model either.
I think Sligo looks to be the least effected county by all of this, but it's borderline, and I'm sure there's an element of keeping inter-county travel to a minimum too in there.0 -
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