Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

Supercell

sdanseo wrote: »

Dublin TAF

Thats an upgrade from the previous taf which had +SN as a possibility.

Oneiric 3

Cork Airport recorded the lowest temp overnight at -7.0c. (from Met Éireann twitter)

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Dublin TAF

TEMPO 0121/0209 0300 +SN OVC002 2100 to 0900 heavy continuous snow, visibility 300m (or less, overcast at 200ft which is airport elevation)

Just to note that cloud bases stated are above aerodrome elevation, not above sea level.

Oneiric 3

It is interesting to learn that even though Casement recorded more lying snow than Dublin Airport yesterday, that Dublin Apt recorded more prep in the 24hrs up to midnight.. almost 3 times as much:

Dublin A: 6.1mm
Casement: 2.1mm


https://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Gaoth Laidir

Snow depths up to midday today. No real increase now in the east with the blowing snow. Precip total for the 6 hours 0.2 mm at Casement and <0.05 mm at Dublin Airport. None at Cork or Knock.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It is interesting to learn that even though Casement recorded more lying snow than Dublin Airport yesterday, that Dublin Apt recorded more prep in the 24hrs up to midnight.. almost 3 times as much:

Dublin A: 6.1mm
Casement: 2.1mm


https://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

It's a strange one alright. 16 cm of snowfall fell midnight to 6 am at Casement with only 0.3 mm registered.

irishfeen

Netweather showing rain over southern half of county on Saturday -

PukkaStukka

In the 07:55 forecast on Radio 1 earlier, Joanna Donnelly mentioned a risk of severe thunderstorms along the south and east coasts. This doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere, so I'm curious to see if the seasoned model watchers and readers here concur with this from what they see? Is the synoptic setup conducive to wide scale sferics?

typhoony

PukkaStukka wrote: »

In the 07:55 forecast on Radio 1 earlier, Joanna Donnelly mentioned a risk of severe thunderstorms along the south and east coasts. This doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere, so I'm curious to see if the seasoned model watchers and readers here concur with this from what they see? Is the synoptic setup conducive to wide scale sferics?

Note to mods: I posted similar to this earlier but it was moved to the cold snap thread. I'd appreciate if the regulars here could answer it as the moved one drew no responses!

if I remember a long way back when we had systems coming up from the south there were embedded thunderstorms, I think it will depend how cold it gets tonight as it happened before when temps for -3 or -4

ThaitaniumM

As you can see, Emma is currently in the Bay of Biscay.
Notice the gap between the streamers and the fronts associated with Emma. I feel these will converge later on and we could have serious thundery downpours.

It's like the Beast of the East meets Emma

Gaoth Laidir

PukkaStukka wrote: »

In the 07:55 forecast on Radio 1 earlier, Joanna Donnelly mentioned a risk of severe thunderstorms along the south and east coasts. This doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere, so I'm curious to see if the seasoned model watchers and readers here concur with this from what they see? Is the synoptic setup conducive to wide scale sferics?

Note to mods: I posted similar to this earlier but it was moved to the cold snap thread. I'd appreciate if the regulars here could answer it as the moved one drew no responses!

The only thing I can see is the chance of elevated thunderstorms from CAPE originating from the approaching warm frontal inversion at around 850 hPa. Above that lapse rates will be fairly steep, but I wouldn't have though steep enough for severe storms.

EDIT: Actually, lapse rates are nowhere near steep enough above the inversion imo. Not quite sure where the idea of thunderstorms is coming from. Will be watching this one with interest.

Wexford, 6 am tomorrow,

typhoony

everywhere tomorrow is close to freezing except for Cork City..

http://www.met.ie/weathermaps/nat01_temp.png?1233

ThaitaniumM

ThaitaniumM wrote: »

As you can see, Emma is currently in the Bay of Biscay. Notice the gap between the streamers and the fronts associated with Emma. I feel these will converge later on and we could have serious thundery downpours.

It's like the Beast of the East meets Emma

Frontal band reaching Cornwall now. There seems to be some embedded heavy precipitation near Brittany currently.

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/zoom/1242/887/bliksem?zoom=6

Oneiric 3

typhoony wrote: »

you've been proved wrong a few times recently.

He has also been proved right more times than I care to remember.

Gaoth Laidir

typhoony wrote: »

you've been proved wrong a few times recently.

So what's your take on it?

donal.hunt

Got the following feedback from YR.no:

Precipitation forecast on yr is always mm water, when snow its melted to water. Weather symbol with amount of precipitation yr collect automatically from a weather data model. The model we are using in your area is the ECMWF model from Reading in England. That model covers large area and its not very good to forecast local weather. If the precipitation amount is correct, you have to wait and see.

Might be of interest for others.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: typhoony please keep the posts civil and friendly, no place for challenging posts today

Stay on Topic all..

pistolpetes11

Just to add the above mod note , can we please show a bit of respect to the experienced posters in here who are sharing a lot of information and educating a lot of us as to the dynamics involved in the weather / weather forecasting

We lost a lot of good members on this forum a few years back and it wont happen again !


Now I can get back to happily watching a potentially historic event for myself .

beefburrito

There must be an atmospheric current stretching right across from the East to West...because Ennis to Limerick ain't bad but above Toonagh upwards as far as Corofin and further up it's snowing....

stephenjmcd

Do the latest charts show an upgrade for the east coast now ? I look at the mornings and thought it might weaken.
Anyone with more experience than me in reading them able to shed some light

sdanseo

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Just to add the above mod note , can we please show a bit of respect to the experienced posters in here who are sharing a lot of information and educating a lot of us as to the dynamics involved in the weather / weather forecasting

We lost a lot of good members on this forum a few years back and it wont happen again !


Now I can get back to happily watching a potentially historic event for myself .

Please let me echo this. I have been critical of some posts that I think differently to, but I hope very respectfully so. There is a huge difference between a healthy debate and an argument or de-railing of the thread which frustrates people, not least those giving freely of their time to update us all and share their knowledge, which in many cases is vast and hugely appreciated - even when we don't like it!

Please please from a regular joe's point of view let's respect each other and just enjoy the weather.

Oneiric 3

Latest European sat. At this stage, 'Emma' looks very disorganised and in general, is moving in a NNE direction.



hard to see how we in the W/NW would get much out of this, unless the wind is so strong that drifting and snowflakes from the event in the east are blown over towards us on this side of the isle!

Rebelbrowser

Similarly just looked at emma on the netweather radar and it is going very much east I think of where progged? The short term hirlam app thing on the met.ie website suggests similar I think? Looks like it doesnt make land fall in Cork til 9pm whilst it hits the east coast much earlier? Have I this all wrong? (sorry for all the question marks btw!)

ascophyllum

Should we be talking about next week's potential for a prolonged event? GFS showing nothing but northeast winds, temperatures rising slightly but some places won't thaw at all and snowfields could keep those temps down even lower than forecast.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest European sat. At this stage, 'Emma' looks very disorganised and in general, is moving in a NNE direction.



hard to see how we in the W/NW would get much out of this, unless the wind is so strong that drifting and snowflakes from the event in the east are blown over towards us on this side of the isle!

It was never going to affect your area. If it had it's likely those seeing snow in the south would be seeing rain instead. I said the models extending it nearly countrywide a few days ago were not to be trusted.

JCX BXC

New red warning issued, only Munster and Leinster in it this time.

Valid until 12pm tomorrow, not 3pm like the last warning.

SleetAndSnow

STATUS RED

Snow-ice Warning for Munster and Leinster
Update
Sub-zero temperatures and further heavy snow showers this afternoon.
Blizzard like conditions will develop in the southeast and south this evening and extend northwards tonight. Southern and eastern coastal counties will be worst affected.

Issued:Thursday 01 March 2018 12:38
Valid:Thursday 01 March 2018 13:00 to Friday 02 March 2018 12:00

And we are back to just Munster and Leinster for RED warning

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Similarly just looked at emma on the netweather radar and it is going very much east I think of where progged? The short term hirlam app thing on the met.ie website suggests similar I think? Looks like it doesnt make land fall in Cork til 9pm whilst it hits the east coast much earlier? Have I this all wrong? (sorry for all the question marks btw!)

That's my reading of it too and hirlam suggests that as well in my view.

ninebeanrows

If Hirlam verified we will be talking about this event to our grandchildren

leahyl

cherryghost wrote: »

Snow all night, all day tomorrow. 1ft snow countrywide (except Ulster)

According to the HIRLAM?