Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

Easterly Beasterly

Hey Guys, does anyone know if the front has completely stalled at it's current location or will it move north at all. The main precipitation band is approx 20 miles south of me!!!

Donegal Storm

Very patchy accumulation here this morning, reiterates the fact that measurements at any one point are fairly meaningless, I've got patches of bare concrete while the snow is above my knees a few metres away!

A bit of a disappointment last night in terms of conditions though, it was nowhere near the dangerous unrelenting blizzard we've been rammed down our throats all week, just some drizzly snow grains blowing about and there's just some light sleety stuff falling at the moment. Depth is more because of persistent light falls than anything dramatic

Still the most snow I've ever seen on low ground though, can hardly see my car looking from the front and its above the tyres all around

Sammy2012

Does anyone know how much longer it's going to snow for? We are effectively cut off at the moment and would like to know what to expect for the next day or 2? I assume it's going to snow for the rest of today. We are on the wexford wicklow border between gorey and tinahely. Snow drifts are 4 or 5 feet deep on the road so totally impassable.

Gonzo

snow depth here is roughly the same as it was when I went to bed around 2a.m. Looking back on the radars it looks like Emma has had an issue trying to move inland from the Leinster coastline, with the heavy precipitation staying out to sea.

Drifts and snow depths are about the same as 2am but it is snowing heavier now. I am thinking maybe the Wicklow mountains has blocked some of Emma's progress and precipitation levels?

It snowed non-stop all yesterday but most of it pilled up between 7pm and 1am. We are snowed in here but there definitely looks to be a slight thaw taking place already.

mirrorwall14

Is there any update form the technical experts on what to expect over the next few days? We stocked up well on Tuesday but we’re now totally snowed in in Kilcock and it’s still snowing. If it’s not going to melt we are looking at needing to trek to shops by Monday (assuming anyone manages to open)

Gonzo

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Is there any update form the technical experts on what to expect over the next few days? We stocked up well on Tuesday but we’re now totally snowed in in Kilcock and it’s still snowing. If it’s not going to melt we are looking at needing to trek to shops by Monday (assuming anyone manages to open)

a thaw should start from today and a slow return to milder temperatures over the next several days, but it will still remain fairly cold. Thaw should become more obvious in places from tomorrow. I reckon most towns and cities should be back to normal by Monday.

have a read of MT's update which mentions the next few days.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=319

SleetAndSnow

Unsure if the netweather radar is correct about the sleetbeing that close to the cork city coast? Any ideas?

tbayers

John.Icy wrote: »

You have to hand it to some of the hi res precip forecasts. Many of them decreased intensity just before Dublin City - and that's roughly what's came about with next to nothing here since 4am. I'd love to know the reason, seeing as precipitation has at least on radar moved far enough North to cover more of Dublin. Wicklow mts.?

Looks like it's about to fizzle out for most of Dublin on radar now though. Wicklow and Wexford are in for a right old day.

And Waterford, had a crazy amount since 8 this morning. Winds have abated quite a bit though. Surely streamers will reestablish themselves later too??

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Cork back up to 5 cm of even snow and Shannon got in on the act with 3 cm overnight. Wet-bulb temperatures in the south and southwest now hovering just below zero, so that'll do.

How strange, between 11-14cm here in West Clare, with up to 46cm in drifts.

JCX BXC

tbayers wrote: »

Surely streamers will reestablish themselves later too??

Nope, the uppers aren't there.

ninebeanrows

For those in central / north Dub- models signal snow returning this afternoon through till nightfall , probably wet snow or sleet along the immediate coast but 10cm possible.

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

For those in central / north Dub- models signal snow returning this afternoon through till nightfall , probably wet snow or sleet along the immediate coast but 10cm possible.

Yeah i think an inch or two of wet snow is possible before the day is over even though ppn rates leave a lot to be desired.

sryanbruen

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Is there any update form the technical experts on what to expect over the next few days? We stocked up well on Tuesday but we’re now totally snowed in in Kilcock and it’s still snowing. If it’s not going to melt we are looking at needing to trek to shops by Monday (assuming anyone manages to open)

Pretty much what Gonzo described. There's disagreement on where we will go among the models. The general theme is for us to be fairly cold throughout the week and perhaps a rather colder outbreak towards the end of next week with some potential snow - very long way off though. Slack easterly or northeasterly winds during the period. Temperatures perhaps around 3-8c generally. The higher temperatures will lead to periods of rain.

Honestly though, there is far too much uncertainty to be sure of anything beyond the weekend.

red_bairn

sryanbruen wrote: »

Pretty much what Gonzo described. There's disagreement on where we will go among the models. The general theme is for us to be fairly cold throughout the week and perhaps a rather colder outbreak towards the end of next week with some potential snow - very long way off though. Slack easterly or northeasterly winds during the period. Temperatures perhaps around 3-8c generally. The higher temperatures will lead to periods of rain.

Honestly though, there is far too much uncertainty to be sure of anything beyond the weekend.

Funny enough I know you guys on here were talking about reloads, I think MT might have mentioned it a few times in his forecasts and this morning my girlfriend is on to her mother in Poland and they have been warned about showers/cold weather happening again next weekend or so.

pauldry

Certain to be colder than normal for first half of March. During this time Id expect a few more snowy episodes in parts but this is the peak. However dont be surprised to see the comments of this is way worse than Emma if snow hits the NW or W next week anytime but by then it may be the hail mess.

Ive looked at all the models and currently I cant see the temperature being above 10c any time till paddys day but they may flip depending on this low pressures track

The SSW episode affects the climate though and not the short term so id expect a very cold March overall

Rebelbrowser

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Unsure if the netweather radar is correct about the sleetbeing that close to the cork city coast? Any ideas?

Youd imagine the frigid air over the snowfields here will sort that out once it makes landfall.

TECH85

Hey , so just lookin at raintoday radar it looks like there still a massive amount precip out to our south east . Alot of it looking like as it moves in it will get heavier !
Whats ye’r take on this ?
Still snowing now stop since last night , south tipp.
Thanks

gabeeg

Parts of South Dublin could see further accumulations of about 30 cm today.

Wicklow is going to be absolutely buried, as is Wexford if the cold hangs on.

Artane2002

Weathercheck wrote: »

For those in central / north Dub- models signal snow returning this afternoon through till nightfall , probably wet snow or sleet along the immediate coast but 10cm possible.

Hmm... I don't know whether to believe the models or not. Emma didn't deliver much in Dublin 5 but the models were showing snow for here. Not sure if I can trust them now. How far inland do you think you have to be to avoid the sleet/wet snow?

murfo

Artane2002 wrote: »

Hmm... I don't know whether to believe the models or not. Emma didn't deliver much in Dublin 5 but the models were showing snow for here. Not sure if I can trust them now. How far inland do you think you have to be to avoid the sleet/wet snow?

Further than Artane or Swords it seems ☹️

sdanseo

The heaviest precipitation is still stalled off the west coast of Wales. If that was land it would have about 5m by now.

Not a radar glitch, it's the same on multiple maps.

What on earth is causing such a huge band of precipitation to completely stall for >12 hours? I just don't understand it. Frustrating.

Gaoth Laidir

Cork is gaining snow depth now, while Dublin is going the other way. Shannon hasn't reported since 11 am.



Regarding the precipitation band staying off the Welsh coast, I think it has something to do with mountain waves from the Welsh mountains. I noticed earlier on visible satellite stationary waves downwind of Wales and also Wicklow, so I think this has been the problem.

It's been snowing all day in Celbridge, struggling to keep the snow layer topped up. It's become a lot wetter in the last few hours.

M.T. Cranium

Some of the heavy appearance to the radar near Welsh coast is due to ice pellets or hail giving a stronger return. There is an elevated warm sector being mixed out as a result of compression of descending air from Welsh highlands.

My guess at this point is that Emma has risen from the canvas and will stagger on towards Kerry, taking the next 18 hours to get there, and with no significant warm advection and the approach of night, just enough cooling in the boundary layers to overcome phase change in the south except possibly sw Cork and s Kerry briefly late tonight.

This means incredibly another 20-40 cm of snow possible in parts of the south and Wicklow, Wexford. Another 10-30 cm possible Dublin to Galway. Snow moisture content is increasing but may stabilize after 21z.

Emma's sister appears to want some of this action too, she's lined up behind Emma now taking almost the same track.

I am not that sold on any model depictions of warm advection, even limited, especially if lows don't push inland. Seen this movie before, cold over heavy snow is hard to budge, and seas are getting colder by the day (4-6 C widespread in North Sea and Baltic 1-3 C).

Would take this day by day and expect only a very gradual melt although urban heat islands and faint warmth of March sun even through partlial cloud will keep a slow thaw going in cities. Rather than flooding there will be ponding. Businesses with flat roofs and more than 30 cm snow cover would be well advised to try to clear their roofs by Monday, leaks will begin when the snow gets saturated and there can be collapses if it rains.

snowstreams

The Llŷn Peninsula in wales would be getting hammered by the stationary wave of snow in the irish sea.
They got something similar in 1982.
It took days to reach some of the remote villages further out on the peninsula.

Elmer Blooker

Chart for midnight: Interesting position of the front but by then will it have anything left in it and even if it does would it be rain?
The jet is very south, look where those warm sectors are, nothing mild on the horizon. You would wonder why its unheard of in modern winters to have it that far south in January and why the Azores disappears as soon as winter ends?

koutoubia

Weathercheck wrote: »

For those in central / north Dub- models signal snow returning this afternoon through till nightfall , probably wet snow or sleet along the immediate coast but 10cm possible.

Balrothery,North County Dublin.
Very quick thaw this am BUT it will not stop snowing and very gusty.

Gremlin

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Chart for midnight: Interesting position of the front but by then will it have anything left in it and even if it does would it be rain?

All it needs is instability, Irish Sea convection would deliver the moisture. I'm really staring to think the East in particular is far from done with this.

Gaoth Laidir

This is what Met Éireann's aviation chart gives for 18Z today. Snow continuing over land, but more sleety along coasts.

tanko

Was storm Emma forecast to be so slow moving, it hardly seems to be moving at all. Is it not supposed to head off out into the Atlantic?

wakka12

sdanseo wrote: »

The heaviest precipitation is still stalled off the west coast of Wales. If that was land it would have about 5m by now.

Not a radar glitch, it's the same on multiple maps.

What on earth is causing such a huge band of precipitation to completely stall for >12 hours? I just don't understand it. Frustrating.

Is this why much of dublin didn't get the predicted 1m or anywhere close?