Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Kermit.de.frog

bazlers wrote: »

Is it possible to give a rough guide to the counties most at risk at this stage if this is an all out blizzard thurs/ Friday?

Eastern, Southern and Central counties.

SeaBreezes

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It just struck me that now we'll see if an Azores low acts like an Azores high and stays away from Ireland.

Update, in the past 24h that Franz Josef Land high has totally transferred over to northern Norway/Finland at similar 1052 mb pressures.

maybe they only stay away in summer :-)

Rossi IRL

Looked at my usually reliable phone and it says -6,,,,, don't feel that cold though.

Kermit.de.frog

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Is evening rush hour in Dublin likely to be disrupted today?

Unlikely. Snow should not start to accumulate in any big way until after dark.

George Sunsnow

Snowing here near Arklow now and settling

Air temp 0.1c
Dp-2.4c
Wet bulb -0.7c

Macy0161

Woke up to a dusting near Roundwood. Wasn't expecting anything until later, but thinking there won't be much initial rain or sleet up here this afternoon.

monty_python

Autochange wrote: »

monty_python wrote: »

**** this . I'm seriously worried I won't be able to land on Thursday evening now.
I'm flying in at 7pm. Hopefully the heavy stuff stays away until Friday.

It's you Vs the rest of the country on that one. Most of us are hoping for Armageddon.

I'm hoping for it also mate just after I land ðŸ‘

guil

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I must have missed that one. Any reports/archives from the time?

This was over looking blessington lakes just behind the town on March 30th 2010

Pangea

-4 here and the crappiest frost I've ever seen

uck51js9zml2yt

monty_python wrote: »

**** this . I'm seriously worried I won't be able to land on Thursday evening now.
I'm flying in at 7pm. Hopefully the heavy stuff stays away until Friday.

Don't be so selfish

RuthieRose

Pangea wrote: »

-4 here and the crappiest frost I've ever seen

-3 and no frost here. You would think it would be white outside????

DominoDub

From looking at the Netweather.tv Radar just now , does it look like our old friend the 'Isle of Man Shadow " is effecting Dublin as most activity to the South and North of Dublin

Bonzo Delaney

RuthieRose wrote: »

-3 and no frost here. You would think it would be white outside????

There is no moisture for frost

martyfurey

DominoDub wrote: »

From looking at the Netweather.tv Radar just now , does it look like our old friend the 'Isle of Man Shadow " is effecting Dublin as most activity to the South and North of Dublin

Forget about Dublin. They get the best of everything. Let's get some rolling across somehow into westmeath. Don't want to be made a liar of. I have promised copines amount of snow to everybody

gozunda

Pangea wrote: »

-4 here and the crappiest frost I've ever seen

Dropped to -5.0 here last night. The reason for the lack of visible frost is that there is little or any moisture to freeze as a frost layer.

Very very unusual for Ireland - especially considering the significant rainfall we have had all year. As a plus side it means somewhat less dangerous driving conditions - I hope

Kermit.de.frog

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Snowing here near Arklow now and settling

Air temp 0.1c
Dp-2.4c
Wet bulb -0.7c

Bustard

Mr.Crinklewood

Don't forget to get stock in for the little birdies -

https://www.birdwatchersdigest.com/bwdsite/learn/top10/top-10-ways-to-help-birds-in-bad-weather.php

hairyslug

Whatever the fancy word for that little snow bits, anyway, that's what's happening in Courtown now.

DOCARCH

DominoDub wrote: »

From looking at the Netweather.tv Radar just now , does it look like our old friend the 'Isle of Man Shadow " is effecting Dublin as most activity to the South and North of Dublin

It's coming...

What you see on radar now is a weak front, so IOM does not have a huge effect.

Just don't be disappointed this morning if some get sleet (or even rain) from that!

After that weak front passed through....the fun begins!

SilverTom

Can someone post MTs forecast please can't get it

guil

It's mad this morning. I looked out the back when I woke up and was sure it was all white. Left for work and not a thing, not sure what the temp was but I used the window washer and it froze on the windscreen as it was wiping. Got into the truck about 4:15 and that said +1c, an hour later near blessington it was -2c

Surinam

munsterlegend wrote: »

That's off the scale for the east. South badly hit as well.

31 inches?! Honestly, I wonder if some flat rooves (watehouses etc) could take such an amount of snow....

Ultimate Seduction

Minus 4 this morning in North county cork. Excellent driving conditions though.

DOCARCH

MTC forecast:

Tuesday, 27 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for 5 to 15 cm of snow later today in parts of Leinster, east Ulster, and spreading at times to eastern Connacht and Munster where 3 to 10 cm a more likely total. ADVANCE ALERT for severe cold tonight and tomorrow, and for snow and blowing snow with blizzard conditions likely in some parts of Leinster, 10 to 25 cm snowfalls possible (5 to 15 cm away from main snowfall areas of south and central Leinster), and also ADVANCE ALERT for severe snowstorm conditions Thursday-Friday possibly spreading to all counties from the south, merging with heavy snow streamers further north.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, becoming rather windy and very cold, with outbreaks of snow (possibly starting as rain or sleet right along the east coast but changing to snow, and a start as snow more likely any distance inland), potential for 5 to 15 cms in Leinster, 3 to 10 cms in south and east Munster, traces to 3 cms further west and north. Highs -1 to +3 C, mildest near south coast, with significant wind chill by afternoon (-3 to -5 C), with temperatures likely to drop during snowfall to -1 C. Snow may be accompanied by thunder this afternoon especially near east coast. The snow is expected to be sleety and rather light in general this morning but heavier by afternoon and evening. Some parts of west Ulster and north Connacht could have sunny spells. Winds generally northeast 20-40 km/hr this morning increasing to 40-60 km/hr by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... After a very cold start (lows -11 to -5 C, coldest in west Ulster and inland Connacht, north Tipperary) becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy snow likely, thunder possible, accumulations of 10 to 25 cms in parts of Leinster could be disruptive to travel, 5 to 15 cms in parts of Munster and east Ulster, tapering to trace amounts near west coast (but some bursts of heavier snow could reach as far west as Galway and Limerick). Highs only -4 to -1 C, feeling like -10 C in the wind which will be easterly 50 to 90 km/hr. This is likely to become a "red alert" situation both for cold and snowfall.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... A severe winter storm appears very likely, although those conditions may already be occurring by Wednesday in parts of Leinster. This storm is likely to spread to all parts of Ireland with strong east winds 70 to 120 km/hr in exposed coastal south and southwest, more like 50 to 80 km/hr elsewhere), heavy snow, blowing snow and blizzard conditions especially over open rural and higher terrain. There is potential for 20 to 50 cms of snow during this period. Temperatures will be steady in the range of -2 to +1 C. The strongest winds in the southwest should occur after snow ends but it could be ongoing in higher parts of Kerry and west Limerick, inland Cork. By Friday afternoon, somewhat milder air may have pushed into the south coast and across most of Kerry, parts of Limerick and Cork, with temperatures there rising to 4-6 C near sea level, and downsloping across higher ground in Kerry the very strong southeast winds could be damaging in exposed locations. Further north the wind will not be as extreme and any milder trend could be either muted or non-existent depending on how strong the resistance of cold air is to this glancing blow. Some guidance continues to suggest no incursions of rain or milder air at all so the somewhat milder scenario is perhaps a 2:1 favourite from the guidance available now.

Note also that full moon (0052h Friday 2nd) will coincide with strong winds on the south and east coasts and could produce shoreline flooding from unusually high tides on Thursday and Friday. Cork and other locations may be at some risk of at least minor flooding as a result.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 3-4 March appears likely to continue rather cold with the risk of further snow that could continue to be heavy in some northern and perhaps central counties, but details are very "low confidence" at this point. One or two more lows could attempt to do what the first one was trying to do, and perhaps with similar results (less extreme in general though). The best bet at this point seems to be overcast, mixed sleety precipitation, and temperatures 2 to 5 C with moderate winds. Then into the following week, colder air may actually make a return from the north with temperatures staying quite cold and further chances for snowfalls developing. Some guidance suggests much milder air will begin to arrive late in that week (around 9th March). It seems equally possible that this will be held back though.

My local weather (all around the region as we had a day trip) was partly cloudy with brief showers of snow or pellets, and highs between -1 and 4 C depending on elevation.

I will probably issue an update this afternoon or early evening once we have some new guidance available for the end of the week scenario.

Stay safe and (especially Wednesday to Friday) avoid unnecessary travel.

George Sunsnow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bustard

Just a bare sugar coating so far,very light small flakes
As I drove into Arklow town (I’m two miles inland) the sugar coating is covering roofs cars and gardens

SilverTom

Thanks Doc

irishgeo

If the east gets 31 inches of snow. The rest of the country will have to come dig ye out. I honestly can't see that snow falling. The thaw will cause widespread flooding.

titan18

I'm praying for carnage so I get to sit at home and do nothing. Snow day be much better than work day

Paully D

The thing I’m looking forward to most is bringing my dog for a walk in the heavy stuff.

The little fella is getting older and older by the day and while hopefully he has another few years left in him, he will never experience anything like this again so it will be great to have a few pictures/memories of it to look back on in the years to come.

Lawnmo

Horrible nights sleep. Tossing and turning all night due to wearing a t-shirt in bed for extra warmth. Afraid to take it off incase the temp spiralled. Sooner this thing gets here and we know where we are with it the better.
*Insert Delia smith 'lets be 'avin you' speech *