Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Oneiric 3

NoodleMc wrote: »

Could someone please explain how to read the colours on charts such as the arpege above? Does the number go with the colour on it's right or left (e.g is the lightest blue on the arpege 5 or 10?)
Thanks!

The colours get 'stronger' the more snow is predicted. the whites and blues on the map shows were the greater depths are forecast to be (with blues being the greater)

ninebeanrows

The EC has 30-40cm of accumulated snow by Friday night across much of Leinster and Munster.

sdanseo

ECM is just one run. For comparison it was giving -12 uppers over Dublin on the 00Z for next Saturday, now it's saying -3.

If it was the other way around and it had gone from several pessimistic runs to a single optimistic run a week out we would all be rolling our eyes and saying it'll never happen.

It's probably a blip, and even if not it's deep in FI. Cool the jets.

Soccarboy11

as for the models, earlier in the week they were pushing the easterly further and further south but corrected themselves the next day. What the ECM shows now is 6 days away so it could easily correct itself in the coming runs which would be great.

Claire6

When is it likely to hit Cork? Sorry if this has been said already but this is a long thread!

DaleB

This is coming from someone who is completely uneducated to all this weather but going off the latest page or 2 on the technical thread they somewhat seem to be talking with less promise. I think its going to be very cold but that glorious snow i think seems to be less likely the further away from Dublin may have to go up to the mountains to get some in Waterford

newinvestor

1cm of snow �� I’ll get my toothpick out to dig my car out

Soccarboy11

DaleB wrote: »

This is coming from someone who is completely uneducated to all this weather but going off the latest page or 2 on the technical thread they somewhat seem to be talking with less promise. I think its going to be very cold but that glorious snow i think seems to be less likely the further away from Dublin may have to go up to the mountains to get some in Waterford

Nope still on track, this latest model is for next saturday which is a week away. Next week still looks bitterly cold.

Hooter23

davidsr20 wrote: »

1cm wow

Daniel2590

newinvestor wrote: »

1cm of snow �� I’ll get my toothpick out to dig my car out

Why am I not surprised that you ignored everyone that said to ignore these charts when it's days out?

Snowbiee21

The pessimism would really fry your brain, nonsense .

Casualsingby

By day 6,ECM has uppers of - 2 - 3 on the SE coast. Still - 8 - 9 on the north coast. Day 7 1c uppers south coast, - 5 - 6 North coast. Day 8 milder County wide, small pocket of - 2 over Galway, mostly - 1 everywhere. Still long bit away, no point fretting over it for a couple of days, it could be all different next run and this week looks great regardless.

sdanseo

DaleB wrote: »

This is coming from someone who is completely uneducated to all this weather but going off the latest page or 2 on the technical thread they somewhat seem to be talking with less promise. I think its going to be very cold but that glorious snow i think seems to be less likely the further away from Dublin may have to go up to the mountains to get some in Waterford

In the last 6 hours on the technical thread the period up to and including Friday has been consistently upgraded, with Kermit switching to bold font to emphasise a potentially major event and MT predicting up to 2 feet of snow in Dublin.

Meanwhile there has been a single run which predicts very heavy snow turning to very heavy rain over next weekend, which combined with 60cm of snow (around 15-30cm of rain) melting in around 12 hours would turn into a very significant flooding event.

glightning

Being totally objective here....

This cold spell definitely is unusually potent.

For a good few days there, the models had a trend to increases severity and the length of the spell.

However, I must say that over the past 36 hours or so, the models definitely have begun to downgrade slightly.

We’ll still get around -14c uppers by Wednesday, but the upper air significantly warms rather more quickly now than previously forecast. The lows coming in from the Atlantic are cutting off the cold air advection much quicker than I would hope for (and to what was shown in previous runs). That part is dissapointing.

Secondly, the models now show warm air advection around the top of the high which in effect greatly reduces the size of the cold pool (and warms the uppers over eastern Europe). Previous run last only a day ago showed a very different scenario with tons of cold air to the north and east at this weekend - whereas that solution has been watered down significantly.

The snow event Friday is looking interesting. Ireland (at this stage) still seems to be in cold enough air for a good snowfall.

Personally, I don’t think we’ll see as severe temperatures as we did in 2010. Possibly not as much snowfall here in the north either (we had around 10 to 12 inches lying on 17th Dec 2010). My thinking with the temperatures comes from the time of year (longer days and increases insolation), possible less extent of snow cover, the air source (2010 air came over the pole from Alaska), and the modification of the air on its way to us (it’s warming up already during its entire journey to us). 2010’s low temperatures were aided by very slack winds, deep snow cover that was extensive, and significant hoar frost.

It would be nice to see some upcoming runs reduce the influence of those two lows. It seems the Atlantic is having too easy a time of shifting that cold air up and out of the way. But perhaps that’s because the cold pool is actually modified too much be Friday and therefore easier to shift? Either way I’d prefer to see the charts showing more potential for protracted cold beyond next weekend (even if it meant less overal snow cover).

BLIZZARD7

newinvestor wrote: »

1cm of snow �� I’ll get my toothpick out to dig my car out

I really hope you get snowed in to your house.

munsterlegend

MT had an update in the technical thread re the weekend and snow in general in case anyone missed it.

JanuarySnowstor

Well to brighten the mood.....The beeb have updated their online forecast and it's superb!!

uck51js9zml2yt

My phone is showing -3/-4 with snow Tuesday/Wednesday so this thread must be true.

I'm just waiting for all the moany little sh!tes in work saying it's not warm enough:D

pjohnson

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I really hope you get snowed in to your house.

The poor house

Soccarboy11

In my opinion I think the models are being very iffy now as they are trying to figure out a variety of factors. First being the warming over at canada changing things, next they are trying to figure out which was this low pressure will go and third they aren't used to this kind of extreme cold at these latitudes so they may be pushing it away faster then it actually will happen. But im not sure if my points are valid or not.

Daniel2590

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I really hope you get snowed in to your house.

Can you pray for us to get snowed in too in South Dublin? :pac:

DellyBelly

Claire6 wrote: »

When is it likely to hit Cork? Sorry if this has been said already but this is a long thread!

I think cork will get away with the worst of it fortunately. Well it looks that way at the moment.

newinvestor

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I really hope you get snowed in to your house.

Well there's a mat at the front door that is about 2cm's thick so I think I'm fully protected

Kermit.de.frog

Weathercheck wrote: »

The EC has 30-40cm of accumulated snow by Friday night across much of Leinster and Munster.

ECM has more intense shower activity overall as well.

ECM also shows heavy persistent snowfall pretty much nationwide from late Wednesday night right the way through to Friday morning.

I suspect the run may be an outlier though.

sryanbruen

glightning wrote: »

Personally, I don’t think we’ll see as severe temperatures as we did in 2010. Possibly not as much snowfall here in the north either (we had around 10 to 12 inches lying on 17th Dec 2010). My thinking with the temperatures comes from the time of year (longer days and increases insolation), possible less extent of snow cover, the air source (2010 air came over the pole from Alaska), and the modification of the air on its way to us (it’s warming up already during its entire journey to us). 2010’s low temperatures were aided by very slack winds, deep snow cover that was extensive, and significant hoar frost.

It would be nice to see some upcoming runs reduce the influence of those two lows. It seems the Atlantic is having too easy a time of shifting that cold air up and out of the way. But perhaps that’s because the cold pool is actually modified too much be Friday and therefore easier to shift? Either way I’d prefer to see the charts showing more potential for protracted cold beyond next weekend (even if it meant less overal snow cover).

The difference between December and March's record low temperatures isn't big; -17.6 and -17.2 respective;y, just -0.4 of a difference. You can easily beat the record in this kind of setup, it just depends on factors such as cloud cover, snow cover etc.

One simple reason why you think you won't get as much up there is because this is an easterly. 2010 was a NORTHerly / northeasterly.

The reason why on your last point is so that the models want to get us to the default setup. I showed earlier an example from March 2013 from a GFS 12z run that showed us going into a southwesterly, very unsettled setup 9 days away, on the 11 March and there was no such thing on the day. In fact, upper airs were very cold, snow showers were frequent.

By the way, you had predicted an average Winter if I remember correctly back in the Autumn. Far from an average Winter to me.

uck51js9zml2yt

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well to brighten the mood.....The beeb have updated their online forecast and it's superb!!

He was smiling he said all that:D.....and blizzards!!

Soccarboy11

Can we not have these groups of people stalking to thread to say 'I told you so!' when one model variation goes bad? Its very annoying and distracting.

The fact that is your first post and is so long, I highly doubt its accurate and I assume you were here under a different name before.

Lucreto

I have an ACCA exam on the 7th March and I'm off Friday for study. I hope Thursday is a red warning I can get a cheeky extra study day.

It the cold ends at the Weekend it would be good for me but if it goes the other way and the exam is cancelled due to snow all the better.

Danno

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/967466480530087944

Already -0.3c here in South Laois.

wakka12

I can't take all this downgrade stuff I need this easterly to move its ass and dump a tonne of ****ing snow on my roof so I can be content for the next 5 years of my life until the next snow