Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Tzmaster90

He can voice his opinion but we will see how the cold unfolds.

CeilingFly

In the technical thread MT is suggesting that it will be gone by the weekend, and whilst he's suggesting heavy snow for midweek, there's still no certainty due to the various models changing with each run.

As I said, best to wait till closer to the event before assuming any big snowfall.

I just think it won't happen as we're just too far on the edge of a very big system covering most of Europe.

I won't put on a smug smile yet ☺

sryanbruen

CeilingFly wrote: »

In the technical thread MT is suggesting that it will be gone by the weekend, and whilst he's suggesting heavy snow for midweek, there's still no certainty due to the various models changing with each run.

As I said, best to wait till closer to the event before assuming any big snowfall.

I just think it won't happen as we're just too far on the edge of a very big system covering most of Europe.

I won't put on a smug smile yet ☺

I meant to reply earlier to ya.

Thanks for the sensible reply - can't say that about everyone. We'll agree to disagree on this matter.

Spanish Eyes

We have just another day or two to go. Then we can bitch and moan, or say Yay, we were correct.

Weather forecasting can be hit and miss, so I suppose a softly softly approach is wise, with preps just in case though!

Sunday night is the one to watch IMO.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Back on topic, do not respond to trolling posts, let the Mod team take care of it. Use the report button and thanks to those that already have. Time to move on.

GoneHome

Just after walking home from the pub after watching the rugby, absolutely Baltic outside

joes girls

IWO are live on Facebook, some great information , but i just dont know how they are not screaming at the will it snow in ....... question.

munsterlegend

The UK met office update today certainly not in line with ECM after Saturday so it's all very much subject to change. Of course the uk met could be wrong but ECM is also at odds with other models.

Spanish Eyes

Need to prepare for a downgrade, just in case.

But the need to prepare for an upgrade is more important.

KingdomRushed

There is no doubt that the prospect of severe cold beyond Friday is draining away as a new trend appears on both the GFS and now the ECM models.

However the outlook for Mon through Fri looks relatively unchanged to me.

Met Éireann have yet to make an actual call on anything past Friday so how can they downgrade what they haven’t yet really forecast on yet?

CB19Kevo

Been a follower and rare poster on the weather forum for many years.
Must say it is a disrespect to the effort put in by the many knowledgeable contributors on this forum to argue and knowingly post unfounded criticism.

The information that they provide and there interpretation of charts is only as good as the sources which are available,ECM- GFS and the like. And for posters to attack those who put time and effort to analyze and then pass the information to us all really is not acceptable.
You are not paying these contributors wages so maybe just give them a thank you instead of looking for ways to criticize or undermine them.

As for the event itself i have a mixture of excitement and dread as i love the snow and the wonderful effect it has on the landscape but also do not want this to cause any harm, Such as deaths and injury and the massive implications it may have for animals.

Only goes to show how important this forum is in giving early warning, Better to be prepared and have plans in place even if the outcome may not be severe.

Thanks to everyone who makes this forum the great and welcoming place it is.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

I just watched the BBC weather and they are expecting 20cm of snow in some parts of Britain. The weather presenter also said that the bitterly cold air arriving from Russia will be over the Brittish Isles by Tuesday and that it will stretch way out in to the Athlantic something that has not happened for many years. I take it 20cm of snow will most likely be on the hills and mountains and possibly along the east coast of the UK. I don't think we will see that amount of course but by the look of the charts he showed we will see some accumulations in the east and southeast and further west as the week goes on.

sdanseo

From my semi-educated interpretation, it's worth noting that even if the southern low moves up over us at the weekend, there will still be a huge depth of cold over Europe and plenty of potential for a reload.

glightning

sryanbruen wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

Personally, I don’t think we’ll see as severe temperatures as we did in 2010. Possibly not as much snowfall here in the north either (we had around 10 to 12 inches lying on 17th Dec 2010). My thinking with the temperatures comes from the time of year (longer days and increases insolation), possible less extent of snow cover, the air source (2010 air came over the pole from Alaska), and the modification of the air on its way to us (it’s warming up already during its entire journey to us). 2010’s low temperatures were aided by very slack winds, deep snow cover that was extensive, and significant hoar frost.

It would be nice to see some upcoming runs reduce the influence of those two lows. It seems the Atlantic is having too easy a time of shifting that cold air up and out of the way. But perhaps that’s because the cold pool is actually modified too much be Friday and therefore easier to shift? Either way I’d prefer to see the charts showing more potential for protracted cold beyond next weekend (even if it meant less overal snow cover).

The difference between December and March's record low temperatures isn't big; -17.6 and -17.2 respective;y, just -0.4 of a difference. You can easily beat the record in this kind of setup, it just depends on factors such as cloud cover, snow cover etc.

One simple reason why you think you won't get as much up there is because this is an easterly. 2010 was a NORTHerly / northeasterly.

The reason why on your last point is so that the models want to get us to the default setup. I showed earlier an example from March 2013 from a GFS 12z run that showed us going into a southwesterly, very unsettled setup 9 days away, on the 11 March and there was no such thing on the day. In fact, upper airs were very cold, snow showers were frequent.

By the way, you had predicted an average Winter if I remember correctly back in the Autumn. Far from an average Winter to me.

Yes, good points.
Also, you are correct. Definitely not an average winter. We actually had four events with 2 to 4 inch snow cover (lasting a few days each) plus several other individual days this winter with a slight snow cover (perhaps 5 individual days). And an extensive amount of frosty days. So definitely a notable winter this year that has had many up here talking.
Let's see what comes in the next few days. p.s. My opinion on snow cover isn't due to my location. I'm actually in the SE of Northern Ireland and do expect some. Easterlies do work for my location

wakka12

Does snow affect cows and sheep that much? Surely they have cows and sheep in russia and canada

digiman

How much snow did we have in Dublin in around 2010? I seem to remember 20cm in Dublin 15 but not sure if this is right

wakka12

digiman wrote: »

How much snow did we have in Dublin in around 2010? I seem to remember 20cm in Dublin 15 but not sure if this is right

I think I remember it being about 10 inches (25cm) where I am in D14, I distinctly remember it being relatively close to a foot of snow but not a whole foot

BorneTobyWilde

https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/43184987

This guy seems to predict a Snowmageddon type event

q85dw7osi4lebg

A question for the experts, is the Irish sea warmer or colder than the North sea at this time of year? Naturally my guess is warmer.

Casualsingby

wakka12 wrote: »

Does snow affect cows and sheep that much? Surely they have cows and sheep in russia and canada

44,000 Farm animals died in Northern Ireland in March 2013 because of the blizzard and cold weather.

George Sunsnow

natashaob6 wrote: »

I just watched the BBC weather and they are expecting 20cm of snow in some parts of Britain. The weather presenter also said that the bitterly cold air arriving from Russia will be over the Brittish Isles by Tuesday and that it will stretch way out in to the Athlantic something that has not happened for many years. I take it 20cm of snow will most likely be on the hills and mountains and possibly along the east coast of the UK. I don't think we will see that amount of course but by the look of the charts he showed we will see some accumulations in the east and southeast and further west as the week goes on.

Yes it’s stretching way out into the Atlantic but that’s not where models are saying the attack is coming from
The low is coming from relatively warm waters down towards the azores Portugal direction,I expect it to fail in its attempted break down of the cold,it will slide somewhere on entry but not before it dumps massive quantities of precip which I expect to be snow due to having to negotiate an awkward angle of attack
I also expect ( my third expectation :eek: ) that this is very complicated for models so could come down to the wire on wenesday or Thursday to resolve and in the meantime variations in wind directions modeled aplenty

BLIZZARD7

wakka12 wrote: »

I think I remember it being about 10 inches (25cm) where I am in D14, I distinctly remember it being relatively close to a foot of snow but not a whole foot

I recorded that much in the first period of December 2010 in D14, closer to 12 inches on some surfaces but yeah. The second shot delivered 16-18 inches here though, some sight to see!

wakka12

Casualsingby wrote: »

44,000 Farm animals died in Northern Ireland in March 2013 because of the blizzard and cold weather.

Oh I see. But how did animals in cold weather countries survive winters?

Soccarboy11

Im loving the BBC potential blizzards for the south and it goes up to cork! If that happened we would all shut up from down here :pac::pac: Would like if that low got pushed down south again though and the cold remained :cool:

BorneTobyWilde

That low pressure from south next Friday could be interesting. Could be an epic dumping of snow in South if that was to materialize

ZX7R

wakka12 wrote: »

Oh I see. But how did animals in cold weather countries survive winters?

They house them, and use different breeds

highdef

Rashad Icy Forefinger wrote: »

A question for the experts, is the Irish sea warmer or colder than the North sea at this time of year? Naturally my guess is warmer.

The Irish Sea would be 1-2c warmer than the North Sea which is great because it means that our showers can get bigger and better, assuming the fetch is long enough at any given location.

PowerToWait

wakka12 wrote: »

Oh I see. But how did animals in cold weather countries survive winters?

Moved indoors.

q85dw7osi4lebg

highdef wrote: »

The Irish Sea would be 1-2c warmer than the North Sea which is great because it means that our showers can get bigger and better, assuming the fetch is long enough at any given location.

Exactly my reason for asking, thanks.

Will be watching how the UK east coast fairs out (with its longer fetch). Here at coastal Meath we did very well, just missing out on the IOM shaddow. I remember Christmas day had almost 10cm on the beach in 2010.

YFlyer

GoneHome wrote: »

Just after walking home from the pub after watching the rugby, absolutely Baltic outside

The barman said you were gone home.