Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Nettle Soup

I am watching The Revenant tonight. All part of the prep.

Cantona's Collars

Some glorious charts on the last page of the technical thread.
Remember lads,if you pop in there,just have a look and no chat.

Tzardine

Nettle Soup wrote: »

I am watching The Revenant tonight. All part of the prep.

Indeed, I might have to cut open one of the neighbors cows and sleep inside it for warmth. :P

dacogawa

Thursday is going to be epic if you believe the 12z GFS, snow, wind and cold, lots of all :eek:

Irish Steve

Foggy Jew wrote: »

Guys, I've been avidly following this thread & am anticipating next week with equal amounts of glee & apprehension. My family are howling in derision at me & pointing to clear blue skies & bright sunshine. Should I fight my corner & direct them here to this thread, or should I adopt a smug air of 'Ye're all going to be sorry' & keep shtum?

try getting them to watch the 6 or 9 weather forecast on RTE, if that doesn't work, then let them at it, and don't stress that they're not listening to reason

little bess

Nettle Soup wrote: »

I am watching The Revenant tonight. All part of the prep.

Watched it last night as it’s on Netflix now. Now looking for something else snowy to watch 🀔

nacho libre

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

ICON showing significant snow



ICON has the low further south again with the south being plastered in snow for quite a while, this is getting intense it seems!

I've always said the icon was a superior model when it's showing what we want:o
I am getting more confident this system will be continue to shown as further south, but hopefully it is the perfect storm - far enough south to produce snow heaven for 36 hours without turning back to rain. We are long overdue a snow event to go down in snow lore. We should all do a snow dance:o

pjohnson

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So what can we expect in Galway City, decent levels of snow and a red warning a possibility?

I think we are ok till Wednesday. Thursday seems to be red alert territory.

sryanbruen

From the sides of the indexes, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), it seems that both will go towards neutral after a minimum point on Thursday at very negative levels, the NAO going more significantly to neutral than the AO. However, both seem to continue on the negative side throughout into early March even if the NAO is just relatively negative.

The negativity of the AO continuing throughout shows how blocked the Arctic is going to be going into March and it will be tough for much much milder (I'm talking temperatures like 9-12c) weather to make in roads against this block. The NAO could be better in the longer outlook but in the reliable timeframe, it's negative so I don't think we have anything to worry about - by we, I mean cold lovers. It just goes to show you how blocked the Atlantic is and not to mention, these are charts of GFS ensembles. Like I said, NAO could be better in the longer outlook but I'll echo a phrase from a friend of mine that is true: "It's not the indexes that drive the weather, it's the weather that drives the indexes".

Don't be believing in any of the models downgrading, what a load of bullsh!t honestly. It has been proved that their default is to bring us back to mild weather, I showed one such example from March 2013 yesterday.

NIMAN

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

ICON showing significant snow



ICON has the low further south again with the south being plastered in snow for quite a while, this is getting intense it seems!

I like the look of that image, no rain or snow for me!!:cool:

dacogawa

Woah, wasn't prepared for that chart! Go home GFS, you're drunk

Musicman2000

Good to see the 12z runs pushing the low further south.

ninebeanrows

The UKM would give this country its biggest snowstorm in s generation a freeze hard after the snow tapers off

The GFS would provide a record blizzard but may turn to rain later Saturday

prosaic

Just looking at passenger jet contrail above us. It took only about 11 seconds to evaporate behind the plane. Very short trail. Altitude 10.8 km

sunbabe08

dacogawa wrote: »

Woah, wasn't prepared for that chart! Go home GFS, you're drunk

Reckless Abandonment

Might need a second snow shovel if the models keep this up . 12z look great so far

Jim Gazebo

A bit of snow would be just great in cork. As long as it's only a day or two it's no bother to whoever is moaning about frozen pipes... some awful grumps out there.... would be great for the kids to see a bucket of snow .....

JanuarySnowstor

Going by gfs and UKMO both Thursday and Friday (certainly Thurs afternoon) would be red warning days.
To be honest I expect the country to completely shut down if the models are correct.
This is now very serious

SleetAndSnow

I think the UKMO is the run we want to see the ECM following later, blizzard but keeping the low further south rather then the gfs which warms up later on. Both models looks intense, dangerous for people who ignore the warnings and will travel, yet very fun for snow days

dacogawa

Weathercheck wrote: »

The UKM would give this country its biggest snowstorm in s generation a freeze hard after the snow tapers off

The GFS would provide a record blizzard but may turn to rain later Saturday

Do we really need rain with spring tides? Hope the ECM goes with the UKMO.

This week has been the best chart watch in years though

Kermit.de.frog

I'll update the forecast in the OP this afternoon, I don't see much change to be honest...

SleetAndSnow

you know things are intense when a netweather poster says 'Buries ireland!' in a majority UK forum

Sephiroth_dude

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

A bit of snow would be just great in cork. As long as it's only a day or two it's no bother to whoever is moaning about frozen pipes... some awful grumps out there.... would be great for the kids to see a bucket of snow .....

Doesn't make someone a grump for not wanting frozen pipes.

Cantona's Collars

Irish Steve wrote: »

try getting them to watch the 6 or 9 weather forecast on RTE, if that doesn't work, then let them at it, and don't stress that they're not listening to reason

Some people just can't be told...... unless someone posts it on Facebook.
You can bet your life on it that people won't even see the forecast unless it's plastered all over social media.

pjohnson

[ Mod Snip]. According to Donnellys twitter the west has the coldest temperatures coming? I thought this whole thing was worst on the East? WTF?

So from what I can gather from the days we're certain will have snow (in Dublin), Thursday is likely to be the worst? I've some important things on in work on Wednesday that I can't really afford to skip, I live walking distance from my workplace though so I should be able to make it in ok. I've also stuff I'd like to do Thursday but can live with missing it if the weather is too severe to walk in!

alchemist33

pjohnson wrote: »

[mod snip]. According to Donnellys twitter the west has the coldest temperatures coming? I thought this whole thing was worst on the East? WTF?

Worst cold in west. East may have the worse snow afaik

YanSno

pjohnson wrote: »

[ Mod snip ]. According to Donnellys twitter the west has the coldest temperatures coming? I thought this whole thing was worst on the East? WTF?

Yeah the West will be colder due to clear skys, clouds and showers will keep temps a little higher on the east but still freezing

Cantona's Collars

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So from what I can gather from the days we're certain will have snow (in Dublin), Thursday is likely to be the worst? I've some important things on in work on Wednesday that I can't really afford to skip, I live walking distance from my workplace though so I should be able to make it in ok. I've also stuff I'd like to do Thursday but can live with missing it if the weather is too severe to walk in!

Not being smart or funny but if you live within walking distance then just walk.
It's driving that causes problems for people in snow.

jamo2oo9

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Not being smart or funny but if you live within walking distance then just walk.
It's driving that causes problems for people in snow.

Just make sure you're not walking in front of the RTE cameras if you slip.