Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

BorneTobyWilde

People walking to work next week

YanSno

I still believe that low will be located further south into south west uk

joes girls

longshanks wrote: »

What is the chance of a red alert weather warning being issued?

With the task force meeting in the morning
, I can't see any warnings tonight. But I can't wait to see what Joanna has to say later.

Cork Boy 53

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

high in the 2nd half of the week

That would be unlikely to be countrywide though. Just for certain counties.

Dickerty

harr wrote: »

Anyone noticed the birds feeding like mad today...I normally have a few every evening at my bird feeder but over the weekend they have been non stop and I have had to fill both feeders twice...something I normally would do once a week.
Do birds like certain animals have a sense of bad weather approaching ?

I saw the same today, first day in a long time - robins, sparrows, wood pigeons and magpies all in the garden at the same time...

Dotsie~tmp

little bess wrote: »

Watched it last night as it’s on Netflix now. Now looking for something else snowy to watch ��

Runaway Train. 1985.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oii42kor7s

SleetAndSnow

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That would be unlikely to be countrywide though. Just for certain counties.

most likely southern and eastern counties, Dublin and Cork, the two most populous areas in the republic could get plastered in snow so it would be required i'd say

joes girls

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Updated the forecast in the OP.

After reading your update, I really think I need to stock up more on my stockpile.

sdanseo

GFS accumulated precipitation from now until Friday afternoon. These charts from what I've learned are not the most accurate but just for kicks and giggles let's apply some basic maths.

Anything that falls is very likely to be snow and very unlikely to melt before then.

Multiply by somewhere between 10x and 40x for snow. Probably closer to 25x early in the week and 15x on Friday.

If we go for average 10x for Dublin, there could be 28mm x 10 = 28cm lying snow by Friday.

If we were more optimistic (or pessimistic) and said 28mm x 20 = 56cm.

In wicklow above 250m maybe double it in drifts. 1.1 metres. :eek:

YanSno

Have a feeling 12z Ecm will have the low of friday night further south

Kermit.de.frog

The first incursion of cold air will be arriving overnight.


Temperatures will fall to -2c or -3c with a sharp frost, tomorrow they will range 2 - 4c.

Spanish Eyes

YanSno wrote: »

Have a feeling 12z Ecm will have the low of friday night further south

Which means what please?

Some of us are neanderthals when it comes to the technical stuff. We are just selfishly interested in whether the incoming event will happen in our areas or not.

Dotsie~tmp

sdanseo wrote: »

GFS accumulated precipitation from now until Friday afternoon. These charts from what I've learned are not the most accurate but just for kicks and giggles let's apply some basic maths.

Anything that falls is very likely to be snow and very unlikely to melt before then.

Multiply by somewhere between 10x and 40x for snow. Probably closer to 25x early in the week and 15x on Friday.

If we go for average 10x for Dublin, there could be 28mm x 10 = 28cm lying snow by Friday.

If we were more optimistic (or pessimistic) and said 28mm x 20 = 56cm.

In wicklow above 250m maybe double it in drifts. 1.1 metres. :eek:

sdanseo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Which means what please?

Some of us are neanderthals when it comes to the technical stuff. We are just selfishly interested in whether the incoming event will happen in our areas or not.

Would mean it would stay colder for longer, but with less in the way of organised snowfall.

Note less in this context might mean 20cm instead of 50-60cm at sea level.

Pwindedd

My timing sucks with taking holidays. I had the day booked off when Ophelia hit. Everyone got sent home at 11 that day. Now I'm on my hols the blizzard of the century is forecast ! I have a day off on Weds 14th March. I'm offering odds of 15-1 on a tornado. 30-1 on an earthquake. And if you're feeling lucky, 100-1 on a shower of frogs.

DaleB

sryanbruen wrote: »

What are you talking about?

I agree, from Waterford and very skeptical of snow at this stage. Been excited all week, done the extra supply shoppin, bought heaps of coal and logs but i think it'll just be used for the cold.

SleetAndSnow

DaleB wrote: »

I agree, from Waterford and very skeptical of snow at this stage. Been excited all week, done the extra supply shoppin, bought heaps of coal and logs but i think it'll just be used for the cold.

have you been reading the thread? Even us Corkonians are expecting our shield to go away, thats not usual

YanSno

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Which means what please?

Some of us are neanderthals when it comes to the technical stuff. We are just selfishly interested in whether the incoming event will happen in our areas or not.

It will keep us in a North easterly flow with snow on the east, south east with a threat of heavy snow along the south coast

sdanseo

DaleB wrote: »

I agree, from Waterford and very skeptical of snow at this stage. Been excited all week, done the extra supply shoppin, bought heaps of coal and logs but i think it'll just be used for the cold.

I would be pretty shocked at this stage if the south coast didn't see some lying snow this week. You guys have the widest range of probability from something like 5cm up to a couple of feet depending on what evolves.

DaleB

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

have you been reading the thread? Even us Corkonians are expecting our shield to go away, thats not usual

I really really hope your right! Can i continue my scare mongering so?

BLIZZARD7

sdanseo wrote: »

GFS accumulated precipitation from now until Friday afternoon. These charts from what I've learned are not the most accurate but just for kicks and giggles let's apply some basic maths.

Anything that falls is very likely to be snow and very unlikely to melt before then.

Multiply by somewhere between 10x and 40x for snow. Probably closer to 25x early in the week and 15x on Friday.

If we go for average 10x for Dublin, there could be 28mm x 10 = 28cm lying snow by Friday.

If we were more optimistic (or pessimistic) and said 28mm x 20 = 56cm.

In wicklow above 250m maybe double it in drifts. 1.1 metres. :eek:

Not accurate charts as you said but everything up to Thursday evening should be close to the 40x multiplier than 10x, I would say 20-30x. Immense amounts possible under heavy streamers before the frontal event.

loughside

Incoming..

NetWeather radar showing snow showers coming in off the North Sea just off Aberdeen

Tzardine

How I feel right now. So excited lads.

sdanseo

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Not accurate charts as you said but everything up to Thursday evening should be close to the 40x multiplier than 10x, I would say 20-30x. Immense amounts possible under heavy streamers before the frontal event.

If that's the case, those who don't like snow may wish to look away now.

40mm x 25x = 1 metre.
50mm x 25x = 1.25m
At sea level. :eek::eek::eek:

willowthewisp

It is really ramping up regarding the warnings.
Do we actually expect it to be that bad? And if so what do people think the potential impacts will be, seeing as the whole country shut down form Storm Ophelia?

Also what is the potential for Dublin airport to be shut down Wednesday/Thursday?

sdanseo

willowthewisp wrote: »

It is really ramping up regarding the warnings.
Do we actually expect it to be that bad? And if so what do people think the potential impacts will be, seeing as the whole country shut down form Storm Ophelia?

Also what is the potential for Dublin airport to be shut down Wednesday/Thursday?

Dublin Airport is absolutely goosed from Wednesday through to the weekend if even half the projected snowfall occurs.

There's not much other way to put it. They just can't clear that much fast enough.

Usual caveat applies! Streamers are impossible to forecast and the heavier stuff at the end of the week could still all turn to rain.

Artane2002

sdanseo wrote: »

If that's the case, those who don't like snow may wish to look away now.

40mm x 25x = 1 metre.
50mm x 25x = 1.25m
At sea level. :eek::eek::eek:

Unfortunately it isn't as good as it seems. The bottom says accumulated precip over the past 15 days, which includes the rain we had last week. I'm sure there's going to be lots of precip though! Maybe closer to 25mm? I don't think we've had much in the way of rain here in the east coast this month so far, it's been very sunny though.

EDIT: Nevermind, that says for the next 15 days starting today.

sdanseo

Artane2002 wrote: »

Unfortunately it isn't as good as it seems. The bottom says accumulated precip over the past 15 days, which includes the rain we had last week. I'm sure there's going to be lots of precip though! Maybe closer to 25mm? I don't think we've had much in the way of rain here in the east coast this month so far, it's been very sunny though.

No, the 15 days refers to the total length of the forecast run.
The accumulated precip is from the init time (today 12Z) until Friday 15Z

Edit: times are actually in CST but above times are still correct as Z is CST+6hrs

JCX BXC

The ASL forecast on RTE now says there'll be disruptive snow countrywide on Thursday with Sub zero temperatures during the day.

Cantona's Collars

Tzardine wrote: »

When we were kids we used to put down water on one of junctions in the estate on cold nights so we could slide down the road (the old concrete ones). Used to be great craic watching the cars slide around it.

Lol if I saw kids doing it now I would burst them.

There's a hill in Bunclody up past the primary school. One of the locals told me that during the last snow the kids living in the estates along the road would run to 'help' drivers stuck on the hill. By help,they meant spin the cars around and watch them slide back down the hill.