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Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭beefburrito


    Looks like it could be a nationwide whiteout Thursday.

    That's according to the BBC


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Chrongen wrote: »
    Cheers snowstorm445,

    I live in Dub City centre and work in Mulhuddart and commute via public transport. So Monday should be ok to get to and from work but Tuesday getting home I could be scotched...would that be fair to say?

    Yeah Monday should be absolutely fine, no real accumulation likely. Around Tuesday evening should start to get very dodgy, although probably not as bad as Wednesday will be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 853 ✭✭✭polydactyl


    I know I am old as previously would be wildly excited but now all I can think is feck it!! red warning or not other half and I have to go to work (doctors) and the Creche will be closed......aggh and family won’t be able to get up


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Can we get any more specific than we already have for Tuesday? I'm about 30km inland from the East Coast and trying to be organised for work and setting work for the LCs etc. I'm a teacher but our school is up then down two horrifically steep hills. Apparently there was extended closures in 2010, I wasn't teaching there then!
    I know its streamers off the Irish sea but are they likely to penetrate that far inland on Tuesday or is Wednesday more likely?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I think we are probably at a reliable orange alert situation and a probable red alert situation now (met are probably constrained by policy on lead times for these, but feel certain we will go to orange by Tuesday).

    Radar upstream showing very good snow streamer production in north Germany and south of Sweden, even some streamers off the two larger lakes in Sweden. This bodes well for widespread snow streamer development by Tuesday in eastern Ireland.

    My overall impression is that the models have all shifted somewhat colder for Friday into weekend with the Biscay low either looping near Cornwall or making a less extensive incursion into Ireland.

    Verbatim, the ECM solution would bring prolonged heavy wet snow in Munster, I think the reality with a development like they show would be slow and incomplete phase changes with precip tapering to drizzle or snow grains higher inland, but not until a large amount of snow had accumulated over much of the country (20-40 cm with local 60 cm on higher terrain).

    Either the streamers at maximum on Wednesday or this Thursday-Friday storm could qualify (or appear to the public) as a blizzard. Hence my belief that a red warning is probable at some stage.

    I have tweaked my most likely snowfall values in 25% intervals and added Waterford, Galway, Belfast and Limerick.

    TOTAL SNOWFALLS PREDICTED OVER PERIOD 27 February to 3 March 2018 (cms)

    LOCATION ______ Least __ 25% __ 50% __ 75% __ Most

    Dublin ___________ 5 ____ 20 ____ 37 ____ 55 ____ 70

    Cork _____________3 ____ 18 ____ 30 ____ 45 ____ 60

    Waterford ________ 2 ____ 15 ____ 25 ____ 35 ____ 48

    Galway __________ 1 ____ 10 ____ 20 ____ 30 ____ 40

    Belfast ___________5 ____ 20 ____ 35 ____ 50 ____ 65

    Limerick/Shannon __ 2 ____ 12 ____ 23 ____ 35 ____ 50

    If you are interested in your own location, in most cases you could interpolate from these point data except would extend the Dublin values with little change southwest into Laois before tapering down to values shown further south and west. Also add up to 15 cms for higher elevations near cited locations, for example, highest parts of Wicklow might have a min of 20, 50% value of 60 and max of 100 cms.

    The lowest set of numbers would probably apply to far northwest coastal locations but few would be much lower than Galway as shown here.

    As to maximum snow depth, that would be less than these values as these are totals of daily values. Snow depth from previous days would be likely to settle and so the maximum snow depth achieved might be three quarters of the ongoing total snowfalls.

    Melt potential on 2nd-3rd could be assessed as follows:

    Risk of no significant melt of lying snow (5 cm a day ablation in cold wx) __ 20%

    Risk of partial removal of snow cover at 10 cm a day in 2-5 C temps ______ 50%

    Risk of rapid removal of snow cover within 24-36h ____________________ 20%

    Other situations (not much snow to melt, or further accumulating snow) ___ 10%


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    People prep better for Good Friday/Christmas Day closures.

    Met should call it a Good Friday alert. Would sort things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Looks like it could be a nationwide whiteout Thursday.

    That's according to the BBC

    Nahhh .. fraid not. The Cork snow shield will hold up :D .. a slight dusting at most for the week :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    What do the %'s mean?

    TOTAL SNOWFALLS PREDICTED OVER PERIOD 27 February to 3 March 2018 (cms)

    LOCATION ______ Least __ 25% __ 50% __ 75% __ Most

    Is it like a bell curve or something?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    What do the %'s mean?

    TOTAL SNOWFALLS PREDICTED OVER PERIOD 27 February to 3 March 2018 (cms)

    LOCATION ______ Least __ 25% __ 50% __ 75% __ Most

    Is it like a bell curve or something?

    LOCATION ______ Least __ 25% __ 50% __ 75% __ Most

    Dublin ___________ 5 ____ 20 ____ 37 ____ 55 ____ 70

    Am I reading that there is most likely a chance of 70cm+ snow over that period and a 75% of 55cm or less ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    A little evening music in anticipation of what's coming.

    https://youtu.be/kyEK-eiSteo


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  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭GDSGR8


    Drumpot wrote: »
    LOCATION ______ Least __ 25% __ 50% __ 75% __ Most

    Dublin ___________ 5 ____ 20 ____ 37 ____ 55 ____ 70

    Am I reading that there is most likely a chance of 70cm+ snow over that period and a 75% of 55cm or less ?

    I'm reading the 50% value as being most likely, with least and most being the outliers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,038 ✭✭✭✭Sparks


    ixus wrote: »
    People prep better for Good Friday/Christmas Day closures.

    Met should call it a Good Friday alert. Would sort things.

    Good friday to christmas day!?!?!?!!?!
    Holy hell, I need to go back out and buy more salt!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,772 ✭✭✭✭Whispered


    My two dogs spent some time soaking up some sun today before the beast hits. It got to 10deg today here apparently. They're on the sofa enjoying the fire now though, it just hit 0 and feels bitter out.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Chrongen wrote: »
    Wait a minute. Is there a possibilities that the weather will be so bad that one can't walk in it? I understand driving being a big problem but is a blizzard predicted?

    That's why I asked! By some accounts here Thursday /Friday sound to be very severe but I can't tell if that equals 'not safe to drive' or 'not safe to be outside at all'. Maybe we won't know until it comes?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    That's why I asked! By some accounts here Thursday /Friday sound to be very severe but I can't tell if that equals 'not safe to drive' or 'not safe to be outside at all'. Maybe we won't know until it comes?

    Met Eireann have mentioned potential red warnings to come which would be a "get indoors" one. I'd guess no announcements until tomorrow afternoon though given the emergency planning meeting in the morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,807 ✭✭✭Calibos


    A little evening music in anticipation of what's coming.

    https://youtu.be/kyEK-eiSteo

    Someone has to do a retrospective video about this coming event with that as the Soundtrack!!! :eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭BillyBobBS


    Beautiful day in Dublin today. I'm loving it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭Chrongen


    Pentecost wrote: »
    Based on everything that’s been said I would plan to work from home if you can

    So Tuesday onwards should be dodgy but Monday should be ok?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 191 ✭✭Casualsingby


    75% chance of 55cm snow for Dublin? Am I reading that correctly?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,182 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Chrongen wrote: »
    So Tuesday onwards should be dodgy but Monday should be ok?

    Yes.

    Good interpretations of the snowfall amounts already covered, look at the first page of this thread, ME's forecast, MT's forecast and through the thread for more info.


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  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    A little evening music in anticipation of what's coming.

    https://youtu.be/kyEK-eiSteo

    Some more snow related...



  • Registered Users Posts: 201 ✭✭Mtx


    When it's snows heavy, can you lend Ulster some of it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭power pants


    Looks like it could be a nationwide whiteout Thursday.

    That's according to the BBC


    Don't see that, link please?

    Just says Dublin airport -1 light snow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    We should probably have 2 threads at this stage one for Monday to Wednesday and one for Thursday/Friday?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    We should probably have 2 threads at this stage one for Monday to Wednesday and one for Thursday/Friday?

    By Wednesday this one will be touching 10,000 post limit so there will be very little choice :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,182 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    We should probably have 2 threads at this stage one for Monday to Wednesday and one for Thursday/Friday?

    People can barely use the correct ones as it is!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Forecasting models very very fluid for next Friday tonight - twice alone today the Sky News App (Provided by the Met Office I think) on SkyQ had flipped either way here in North Cork ... from light rain/snow for few hours to Heavy Snow basically all day long with the latter just re-upgraded over the past hour.

    It’s going to be a long week! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Don't see that, link please?

    Just says Dublin airport -1 light snow...

    https://preview.ibb.co/fmqvHc/IMG_20180225_192650.jpg

    Taken from the technical thread.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    People can barely use the correct ones as it is!

    Was that aimed at me? I only asked about MT craniums post because there was no conclusive answer here....


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,993 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    People can barely use the correct ones as it is!

    Agreed!

    Will not be starting a separate thread anytime soon.


This discussion has been closed.
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