Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

All eyes on the pub run 18Z GFS.

My current thinking is these showers could make it further inland than we'd normally expect thanks to the driving easterly winds. Some models are suggesting that the snow could make it as far as West Clare, such as the GFS. Any similar thinking on this?

Yup,I think they will and won’t be surprised if you get a covering from them

I honestly still can’t believe what’s coming even though I do
The model watching (and thread reading/participating) has surpassed 2010 in levels of excitement for me and I’m expecting the snow totals at my location to equal if not best 2010 which will be incredible

micks_address

Watched the after news forecast on rte one.. Sort of bemused.. Ages leading in then a it will be cold tonight cold tomorrow, no idea how much snow but its going to be cold.. No real detail past tomorrow?

Charles Babbage

Casualsingby wrote: »

75% chance of 55cm snow for Dublin? Am I reading that correctly?

it is a Bell curve.
No, there is a 75% of snow being 55cm or less, and of course a 25% chance of it being 55cm or more :eek:

micks_address wrote: »

Watched the after news forecast on rte one.. Sort of bemused.. Ages leading in then a it will be cold tonight cold tomorrow, no idea how much snow but its going to be cold.. No real detail past tomorrow?

There will be showers Tuesday/Wednesday in the East and South East. Who knows which place will get 3 showers and which place 10 showers?

sdanseo

ICON model now showing anywhere from 30 to 90cm of snow in the space of 3 hours on Friday

Even though it's terribly unlikely I feel faint

Send help

Ludo

micks_address wrote: »

Watched the after news forecast on rte one.. Sort of bemused.. Ages leading in then a it will be cold tonight cold tomorrow, no idea how much snow but its going to be cold.. No real detail past tomorrow?

They were being VERY cagey there alright. I took that as a bad sign...bad as in it is going to be REALLY bad weather folks but we are holding back on the red until tomorrow.

kingshankly

okedoke wrote: »

Any idea of what the forecast could mean for train services, getting the train from cork to Dublin on Friday morning.

trains should be ok snow doesn’t really affect us at all
Years ago points would get jammed with packed snow but most points have heaters now
Only problem I envisage as a train driver is getting in to work myself

giveitholly

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yup,I think they will and won’t be surprised if you get a covering from them

I honestly still can’t believe what’s coming even though I do
The model watching (and thread reading/participating) has surpassed 2010 in levels of excitement for me and I’m expecting the snow totals at my location to equal if not best 2010 which will be incredible

George what are your thoughts on how Fridays low will play out

Jane_Dough

I have a flight to catch on Friday. Would you say flights will be cancelled? I pray they won't be!

wakka12

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yup,I think they will and won’t be surprised if you get a covering from them

I honestly still can’t believe what’s coming even though I do
The model watching (and thread reading/participating) has surpassed 2010 in levels of excitement for me and I’m expecting the snow totals at my location to equal if not best 2010 which will be incredible

I can't believe it either, almost can't even believe it until I see it. Its been so long that I pretty much can't even properly imagine seeing more than a dusting of snow lasting over an hour in my garden , inches and inches of snow lasting a few days will be so surreal

man_no_plan

sdanseo wrote: »

No, low chance of the least/most happening

25% chance of the 25%/75% columns verifying

And 50% chance of the 50% column occuring.

Reminds me of this...

https://youtu.be/DDoncJckows

squarecircles

Ludo wrote: »

They were being VERY cagey there alright. I took that as a bad sign...bad as in it is going to be REALLY bad weather folks but we are holding back on the red until tomorrow.

You can tell Joanna knows it's going to be bad,she seemed a bit overwhelmed​,as if she wanted to tell us something but can't untill tomorrow.

stephenjmcd

Ludo wrote: »

They were being VERY cagey there alright. I took that as a bad sign...bad as in it is going to be REALLY bad weather folks but we are holding back on the red until tomorrow.

She only had 2 minutes, same with the 6 news. The farming forecast was a good 4 or 5 minutes so there was time to expand. As they've said before the warnings won't come until 24/48 hours before. Therefore we'll see them come tomorrow or early Tuesday.

This is going to be something else

George Sunsnow

micks_address wrote: »

Watched the after news forecast on rte one.. Sort of bemused.. Ages leading in then a it will be cold tonight cold tomorrow, no idea how much snow but its going to be cold.. No real detail past tomorrow?

I’d imagine,that’s the most they can or should do until the emergency management committee in the morning
It’s after that I’d expect a Ramping up of the forecasts

I thought it was a great forecast to be honest,in a series of great ones,the important message is getting out to the public
The nitty gritty detail is better served and more accurately delivered closer to the time and accompanied by the headline warnings that will be in place

I’d be guessing that having the emergency committee to discuss with which warning level is appropriate and where must be very helpful to Glasnevin

adam240610

man_no_plan wrote: »

Reminds me of this...

https://youtu.be/DDoncJckows

I actually knew what this was gonna be before I clicked it.

wakka12

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d imagine,that’s the most they can or should do until the emergency management committee in the morning
It’s after that I’d expect a Ramping up of the forecasts

I thought it was a great forecast to be honest,in a series of great ones,the important message is getting out to the public
The nitty gritty detail is better served and more accurate delivered closer to the time and accompanied by the headline warnings that will be in place

I’d be guessing that having the emergency committee to discuss with which warning level is appropriate and where must be very helpful to Glasnevin

I think she downplayed it. if I wasn't interested in weather and following this thread I wouldn't think anymore than the usual wet snow showers that leave a patchy dusting and melt in an hour is whats coming to dublin during the week

BorneTobyWilde

Weather at 9.30 was boring, nothing to see here. Dunno what that is about.
Maybe she's backtracking

munsterlegend

All I want is 5-10 cm for a day or two! I fear here in north cork that we might just be on the marginal side on Thursday/Friday.

George Sunsnow

wakka12 wrote: »

I think she downplayed it. if I wasn't interested in weather and following this thread I wouldn't think anymore than the usual wet snow showers that leave a patchy dusting and melt in an hour is whats coming to dublin during the week

I doubt that’s the general view out there now in my opinion,it’s certainly the decreasing view

downwiththatsor

sdanseo wrote: »

Kermit's chart shows Naas (along with basically all of Leinster) getting potentially 60cm in 3 hours

I keep having to convince myself that I'm not reading it wrong

The country would just completely shut down

Would 60cm in 3 hours not be equivalent to 60mm of rain? That would be extreme if it were to come off. I wont be believing the outcome until Tuesdays Ecm 12z.

It seems our friends across the water have crashed their weather forum

ZeroSum76

Yr.no is usually scarily accurate but their forecast for Wicklow (Wicklow Head to be precise) is showing mixtures of sleet and rain for the midweek to end of week forecast with temps hovering between/around -1 to +5. What's up with that anyone know? Are there elements the longer term models show that they are likely not factoring in? It's normally my go-to forecast.

torres9kop

Was that a bit of a downgrade after that forecast.  Surley if the guys in Met E are looking at the same charts as we are here they would up the warnings?

mirrorwall14

930 weather felt like she was stalling. I’m speculating that they were going to do warnings this evening but held off because of the meeting in the morning. Thus it was just more of the same and wait for updates

SleetAndSnow

torres9kop wrote: »

Was that a bit of a downgrade after that forecast.  Surley if the guys in Met E are looking at the same charts as we are here they would up the warnings?

considering the national emergency meeting is tomorrow.. they won't release anything until then... no downgrade..

munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Would 60cm in 3 hours not be equivalent to 60mm of rain? That would be extreme if it were to come off. I wont be believing the outcome until Tuesdays Ecm 12z

I'd say right up to Thursday there will be different solutions on the models. Snow and Ireland when attacked from the south is always down to the wire.

cherryghost

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Bizarre forecast on RTE just there, showed cloud and temperatures for tomorrow afternoon then just finished with no info beyond that

There's a lot up in the air, causing panic stations for everyone would just mount pressure on ME if this event never happens

amdgilmore

allthedoyles wrote: »

I see there could be thunder with the snow . Something I've never witnessed .

We had it in 2010. Eerie and awesome.

George Sunsnow

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

Yr.no is usually scarily accurate but their forecast for Wicklow (Wicklow Head to be precise) is showing mixtures of sleet and rain for the midweek to end of week forecast with temps hovering between/around -1 to +5. What's up with that anyone know? Are there elements the longer term models show that they are likely not factoring in? It's normally my go-to forecast.

It’s computer generated
Ergo it’s big fail is complicated conditions
Only human input forecasts can deal with those
If it’s an app,I’d disable it for the next week and rely on the tech thread here and mt cranium aswell as met Eireann and you won’t go too far wrong.

ThaitaniumM

Pub run has the low going more westerly. Uh oh...

ZeroSum76

George Sunsnow wrote: »

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

Yr.no is usually scarily accurate but their forecast for Wicklow (Wicklow Head to be precise) is showing mixtures of sleet and rain for the midweek to end of week forecast with temps hovering between/around -1 to +5. What's up with that anyone know? Are there elements the longer term models show that they are likely not factoring in? It's normally my go-to forecast.

It’s computer generated
Ergo it’s big fail is complicated conditions
Only human input forecasts can deal with those
If it’s an app,I’d disable it for the next week and rely on the tech thread here and mt cranium aswell as met Eireann and you won’t go too far wrong.

That makes total sense. I guess it doesn't have advanced conditions like for example sea effect snow based on 13 degree diff between sea and air etc. Thanks!

lolie

The bbc 9.55 forecast showed a whiteout on Friday with only a mention of some freezing rain in the southeast of England.