Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Gonzo

emo72 wrote: »

so the friday saturday low could either give us a full blown blizzard (have we ever had one?) or start to melt any lying snow? this is the unknown thing?

Friday is far from nailed so I wouldn't worry about it.

We had a full blown blizzard in 1982, snow drifts were several meters high in places.

JCX BXC

emo72 wrote: »

so the friday saturday low could either give us a full blown blizzard (have we ever had one?) or start to melt any lying snow? this is the unknown thing?

Both a blizzard and a melt, in that chronological order.

While a big deal is being made of this extremely uncertain melt, the blizzard and potentially severe snowfall before it is being largely ignored.

The whole system is extremely uncertain for various reasons. Firstly, only the GFS is having such a large melt, the more reliable (arguably) model the ECM does not have this.

These easterlies can be very hard to shift, so many of us are showing out scepticism at how easily this LP seems to be doing it.

It's 5 days out so it will change.

Chicken Run

I'm in squeaky bum territory right now...
Friday I'm due a 40 mile commute to work in a pharmacy in the Midlands (working from home ain't an option... Or walking)
Patients/nursing homes will be let down if it's left closed.....
What a dilemma

(Even worse as I absolutely adore snow.... Being out in it, the sense of quiet, being the first to make footprints in it....) aaaaaaaaaaaaaggghhhhhh

uck51js9zml2yt

Gonzo wrote: »

Friday is far from nailed so I wouldn't worry about it.

We had a full blown blizzard in 1982, snow drifts were several meters high in places.

I remember the hours of fun I had playing in them. Went home to get dry and out again:D

lolie

Calibos wrote: »

Was telling a family member about M.T.C's recent post about percentage chances for amounts of snow.

I said, "So M. T. Cranium was saying that....

They said, "Empty Cranium???....."

I scoffed at them and said, "FFS. No. Its M...T....Cra...n...i..uh.....OOHH!!!"

I've been reading the guys daily weather forecasts every day for the last decade...and I only just 'got it'

Don't feel to bad, I'm on here about 7 years and I just noticed I always read it as Mr T.

cherryghost

So what have we got at the mo?
- All charts pointing to frequent snow showers, banding together as the week progresses. How much is anyones guess but the general consensus is that the snow will penetrate far inland, with most falling Eastwards.

- UKMO wants to keep the cold longer and having this LP sit longer beyond 2nd/3rd.
- GFS wants the cold shoved by 2nd/3rd
- NAVGEM wants the cold sticking til the 3rd with a Northerly fightback.
- JMA wants breakdown into a slushy mess by the 3rd.
- GEM similar situtation as JMA, they've always been closely linked.
- ICON wants cold gone by 3rd/early 4th.
But they all want some heavy snowfall before the breakdown. Will be hard working Monday and Tuesday waiting for this cold pool to finally move over us.

Casualsingby

cherryghost wrote: »

So what have we got at the mo?
- All charts pointing to frequent snow showers, banding together as the week progresses. How much is anyones guess but the general consensus is that the snow will penetrate far inland, with most falling Eastwards.

- UKMO wants to keep the cold longer and having this LP sit longer beyond 2nd/3rd.
- GFS wants the cold shoved by 2nd/3rd
- NAVGEM wants the cold sticking til the 3rd with a Northerly fightback.
- JMA wants breakdown into a slushy mess by the 3rd.
- GEM similar situtation as JMA, they've always been closely linked.
- ICON wants cold gone by 3rd/early 4th.
But they all want some heavy snowfall before the breakdown. Will be hard working Monday and Tuesday waiting for this cold pool to finally move over us.

Good summary. You should do it more often save me checking each one individually ha

Gonzo

a nice peppering of snow showers and snow flurries getting into eastern UK now.

sryanbruen

Yep.

https://twitter.com/Andy197180/status/967899578535174144

https://twitter.com/Andy197180/status/967902423565074432

Pangea

Am I right in saying its looking good for the North West to see some of the white stuff on Wednesday/Thursday?

Xenji

Pangea wrote: »

Am I right in saying its looking good for the North West to see some of the white stuff on Wednesday/Thursday?

I think we have a better chance Thursday night into Friday morning.

snowstorm445

cherryghost wrote: »

So what have we got at the mo?
- All charts pointing to frequent snow showers, banding together as the week progresses. How much is anyones guess but the general consensus is that the snow will penetrate far inland, with most falling Eastwards.

- UKMO wants to keep the cold longer and having this LP sit longer beyond 2nd/3rd.
- GFS wants the cold shoved by 2nd/3rd
- NAVGEM wants the cold sticking til the 3rd with a Northerly fightback.
- JMA wants breakdown into a slushy mess by the 3rd.
- GEM similar situtation as JMA, they've always been closely linked.
- ICON wants cold gone by 3rd/early 4th.
But they all want some heavy snowfall before the breakdown. Will be hard working Monday and Tuesday waiting for this cold pool to finally move over us.

Don't forget the ECM which brings mild air in briefly but brings back cold air in a slack easterly by the start of next week.

soups05

Gentlemen (and Ladies) I usually only pop in here when its a big event, not really looking forward to snow at all, hoping it's fairly non event type here in Dundalk. But I do have to thank you all for the info, the warning and the advice. I can't pretend to have read every page but I wanted to let you Know your appreciated.

of course i will be like a big kid when it hits, snowman will be built lol.

fritzelly

Can't help but sing this to myself right now

aidanodr

Gonzo wrote: »

a nice peppering of snow showers and snow flurries getting into eastern UK now.

With the oncoming snowagedon / really cold weather on its way here during the week surely we should be hearing already from mainland europe about same?

That is, as it is coming from the east they would be getting it well in advance of us?

Not a skeptical Q .. just asking

https://twitter.com/WeatherInBerlin/status/967889296031182850

#Weather in #Berlin, Germany #Now: Light Snow; Temperature: -4°C; Pressure: 30.45"; Humidity: 86%

Meteorite58

Gonzo wrote: »

a nice peppering of snow showers and snow flurries getting into eastern UK now.

First snow

JCX BXC

aidanodr wrote: »

With the oncoming snowagedon / really cold weather on its way here during the week surely we should be hearing already from mainland europe about same?

That is, as it is coming from the east they would be getting it well in advance of us?

Not a skeptical Q .. just asking

No, as they don't have a big North Sea or Irish sea to get the snow from.

Gonzo

aidanodr wrote: »

With the oncoming snowagedon / really cold weather on its way here during the week surely we should be hearing already from mainland europe about same?

That is, as it is coming from the east they would be getting it well in advance of us?

Not a skeptical Q .. just asking

this easterly is starting off dryish as there is a huge area of high pressure keeping much of Europe dry for now. Showers are developing over the North-Sea and starting to make progress into eastern UK. This time tomorrow a similar situation will happen here with showers over the Irish sea making their way into Leinster.

Low pressures will become more dominant later in the week delivering alot of wintry weather to large parts of France, UK and Ireland.

Dancewithme

I have totally taken advantage of the cold dry air today to hang clothes on the washing line outside.I am going to do the same tomorrow. Sad I know but I figure all bacteria will be stone dead ( along with the slugs in my garden hopefully) v impressed with all the regular contributers knowledge so far. Keep it up.

fritzelly

Dancewithme wrote: »

along with the slugs in my garden hopefully

Hope so, they were out in force the other night

Drumpot

Will we sort of see England get similar weather to us a day in advance ?

kenmc

Dancewithme wrote: »

I have totally taken advantage of the cold dry air today to hang clothes on the washing line outside.I am going to do the same tomorrow. Sad I know but I figure all bacteria will be stone dead ( along with the slugs in my garden hopefully) v impressed with all the regular contributers knowledge so far. Keep it up.

Ditto, got about 3 loads dry on the line today, incredible stuff. More of this please!

Gonzo

Alot of people are getting carried away by Friday and what could happen then. I think it's best to focus up to Thursday for now.

Showers getting into the east tomorrow night, but I don't think they will be too heavy, but could form a dusting in places, maybe a few cm. The showers on Tuesday-Thursday cannot be underestimated in the sheer amounts of snow that can fall from these over a short space of time.

The easterlys I have experienced in 1987, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2009 and 2010 all had one thing in common and that was extremely heavy snowfall from showers. When a snow train gets going it can often give just as much snow as some frontal snow events. Two to Three inches of snow can fall per hour.

In 2008, there was an easterly at my location which only lasted one evening, 7 inches of snow fell over a 3 hour period from a constant snow train.

We have 3 to 4 days of potential snow trains before we even get caught up with a possible blizzard scenario on Friday. Some places could easily get a foot of snow over the 3 days if lucky enough to keep out of sight from the IOM/Wales shadows.

Cork Boy 53

Drumpot wrote: »

Will we sort of see England get similar weather to us a day in advance ?

Look back a few pages in this thread and you will see that parts of eastern UK are beginning to see the first snow falls from this system.

squarecircles

AccuWeather warning me of snow accumulations of between 30 and 45 cm between Wednesday and Friday in west Mayo.

Hilarious, (secretly getting worried)

ThaitaniumM

Gonzo wrote: »

Alot of people are getting carried away by Friday and what could happen then. I think it's best to focus up to Thursday for now.

Showers getting into the east tomorrow night, but I don't think they will be too heavy, but could form a dusting in places, maybe a few cm. The showers on Tuesday-Thursday cannot be underestimated in the sheer amounts of snow that can fall from these over a short space of time.

The easterlys I have experienced in 1987, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2009 and 2010 all had one thing in common and that was extremely heavy snowfall from showers. When a snow train gets going it can often give just as much snow as some frontal snow events. Two to Three inches of snow can fall per hour.

In 2008, there was an easterly at my location which only lasted one evening, 7 inches of snow fell over a 3 hour period from a constant snow train.

We have 3 to 4 days of potential snow trains before we even get caught up with a possible blizzard scenario on Friday. Some places could easily get a foot of snow over the 3 days if lucky enough to keep out of sight from the IOM/Wales shadows.

I'm here in the mid-west so I'm focusing on the event Thursday/Friday. I think we're doomed from the IOM/Wales shadow.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Alot of people are getting carried away by Friday and what could happen then. I think it's best to focus up to Thursday for now.

Showers getting into the east tomorrow night, but I don't think they will be too heavy, but could form a dusting in places, maybe a few cm. The showers on Tuesday-Thursday cannot be underestimated in the sheer amounts of snow that can fall from these over a short space of time.

The easterlys I have experienced in 1987, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2009 and 2010 all had one thing in common and that was extremely heavy snowfall from showers. When a snow train gets going it can often give just as much snow as some frontal snow events. Two to Three inches of snow can fall per hour.

In 2008, there was an easterly at my location which only lasted one evening, 7 inches of snow fell over a 3 hour period from a constant snow train.

We have 3 to 4 days of potential snow trains before we even get caught up with a possible blizzard scenario on Friday. Some places could easily get a foot of snow over the 3 days if lucky enough to keep out of sight from the IOM/Wales shadows.

You are referring to this, aren't you?

Chrongen

Chicken Run wrote: »

I'm in squeaky bum territory right now...
Friday I'm due a 40 mile commute to work in a pharmacy in the Midlands (working from home ain't an option... Or walking)
Patients/nursing homes will be let down if it's left closed.....
What a dilemma

(Even worse as I absolutely adore snow.... Being out in it, the sense of quiet, being the first to make footprints in it....) aaaaaaaaaaaaaggghhhhhh

How about you stay in a nice BnB there thursday night?

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

You are referring to this, aren't you?

Yep, that's the one! an incredible night of snow even if it was very short lived. I think Dublin missed out on it due to the Wales shadow.

Drumpot

Turtwig wrote: »

Pretty sure there was an post about this epiphany by another poster during the Ophelia event.:)

M.T be like