WEREWOLF XXIV - Back to the Future

Conor WW · 03-03-2018 5:29pm

Maybe I'm not explaining myself right, or maybe it is a flawed theory. I'll try once more with examples, and see where the flaw is, and then drop it if it's not clicking.

Say the confirmed goodies think Desmond is the next likeliest wolf. But we're wrong, Desmond is a villager.

We all vote for Desmond. You vote for Derry. The wolves vote for Henry. The wolves' vote outnumbers the confirmed goodies vote, and so we're down a confirmed goodie in Henry. We were wrong anyway, but we'd only have lost Desmond who wasn't confirmed. Better to lose a confirmed villager or a non-confirmed villager? Your vote could have swayed so we'd have lost the non-confirmed villager.

The outcome would still be the same regarding number of villagers left, but we'd still not know if Desmond was actually good or not, and no way of finding out with Henry now gone.

The pool of suspects to chose from as baddies would remain the same with Henry gone compared with Desmond gone.

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:29pm

Can you give me the new times again - I cant find them!

Conor WW · 03-03-2018 5:30pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

Is the Lynch at 1? shoot - I wont be around - I work late. I will vote before I go to bed tonight around 5am - Best I can do!

Lynch form won't be open until after munch, but PM your vote to mods, and they'll likely take that as your vote.

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:31pm

Conor WW wrote: »

Maybe I'm not explaining myself right, or maybe it is a flawed theory. I'll try once more with examples, and see where the flaw is, and then drop it if it's not clicking.

Say the confirmed goodies think Desmond is the next likeliest wolf. But we're wrong, Desmond is a villager.

We all vote for Desmond. You vote for Derry. The wolves vote for Henry. The wolves' vote outnumbers the confirmed goodies vote, and so we're down a confirmed goodie in Henry. We were wrong anyway, but we'd only have lost Desmond who wasn't confirmed. Better to lose a confirmed villager or a non-confirmed villager? Your vote could have swayed so we'd have lost the non-confirmed villager.

The outcome would still be the same regarding number of villagers left, but we'd still not know if Desmond was actually good or not, and no way of finding out with Henry now gone.

The pool of suspects to chose from as baddies would remain the same with Henry gone compared with Desmond gone.

If this scenario pops up then yes i'd go with the majority then - Im presuming it would be discussed to death beforehand anyway!

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:32pm

Conor WW wrote: »

Lynch form won't be open until after munch, but PM your vote to mods, and they'll likely take that as your vote.

Thanks - i'll do that!

Isla WW · 03-03-2018 5:32pm

"Sunday will have double the speed commencing with a munch at 10, a lynch at 1, a munch at 3 and another lynch at 6."

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:32pm

What post is the new times in - Im searching fruitlessly here!

Conor WW · 03-03-2018 5:32pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

If this scenario pops up then yes i'd go with the majority then - Im presuming it would be discussed to death beforehand anyway!

Whew-ee!!

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:34pm

Conor WW wrote: »

Whew-ee!!

I nearly argued the point for giggle - but then lost interest

Henry WW · 03-03-2018 5:40pm

Conor WW wrote: »

Thanks for the answer. Not a very villagery outlook though.

A split vote could mean that the wolves could then munch a confirmed villager.

Lets give Abi a chance yet, Desmond Abi Holly Riona and Derry all worth a peek.

Whom will I choose

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:43pm

Henry WW wrote: »

Lets give Abi a chance yet, Desmond Abi Holly Riona and Derry all worth a peek.

Whom will I choose

Derry - obvs

Conor WW · 03-03-2018 5:47pm

Henry WW wrote: »

Lets give Abi a chance yet, Desmond Abi Holly Riona and Derry all worth a peek.

Whom will I choose

I'm giving her a chance. There are others I think more likely to be wolves. Just wanted to make sure that when the time came, her Derry obsession wouldn't get in the way of a united villager vote.

Riona's already peeked.
Desmond is probably already a wolf.

Peek Desmond or Holly.

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:50pm

Conor WW wrote: »

I'm giving her a chance. There are others I think more likely to be wolves. Just wanted to make sure that when the time came, her Derry obsession wouldn't get in the way of a united villager vote.

Riona's already peeked.
Desmond is probably already a wolf.

Peek Desmond or Holly.

I offer myself or agree with des or holly

Desmond WW · 03-03-2018 5:53pm

Why don’t you peek me after the first Lynch tomorrow, then when i am confirmed we can Lynch one of Abi & Holly and then peek the other?

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 5:57pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Why don’t you peek me after the first Lynch tomorrow, then when i am confirmed we can Lynch one of Abi & Holly and then peek the other?

Id rather be peeked first thanks

Desmond WW · 03-03-2018 6:06pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

Id rather be peeked first thanks

Don’t think it’s really up to us - it’s a decision for the confirmed good

Abigail WW · 03-03-2018 6:31pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Don’t think it’s really up to us - it’s a decision for the confirmed good

Yeah - and I want to be one of them so I'm requesting a peek!

Desmond WW · 03-03-2018 6:41pm

Henry WW · 03-03-2018 6:43pm

Conor WW wrote: »

I'm giving her a chance. There are others I think more likely to be wolves. Just wanted to make sure that when the time came, her Derry obsession wouldn't get in the way of a united villager vote.

Riona's already peeked.
Desmond is probably already a wolf.

Peek Desmond or Holly.

Lets of reasons to peek all of the unconfirmed

Logic will dictate whom i go for.

I can see scenarios were all are wolves though.

Henry WW · 03-03-2018 6:45pm

Isla WW wrote: »

"Sunday will have double the speed commencing with a munch at 10, a lynch at 1, a munch at 3 and another lynch at 6."

Id like to see who folks think i should peek. Its very interesting

Whether I go for it or not is another thing

Desmond WW · 03-03-2018 6:50pm

I would like you to peek me to clear me obviously but if you feel there is someone else you rather that’s fine.

Outside of me I think you should peek Abi as she is the best shot of finding a wolf.

Liam WW · 03-03-2018 6:52pm

I'm finding it a little disconcerting that I'm getting a mad vibe from Desmond he wants anyone but Derry peeked....

Liam WW · 03-03-2018 7:09pm

Can anyone help a lazy bugger out and post the vote results please

Desmond WW · 03-03-2018 7:31pm

Liam WW wrote: »

I'm finding it a little disconcerting that I'm getting a mad vibe from Desmond he wants anyone but Derry peeked....

I’ve no problem with Derry being peeked but it doesn’t seem like he is high on Henry’s list

Liam WW · 03-03-2018 7:43pm

Feel I'm missing one but just quoting these to start off.

Loughc wrote: »

The town folk have had enough of Biffs empire and have took upon themselves to try to topple the empire.

However if was hard for the townsfolk to determine who was on who's side so in temper they decided someone needed to be made an example of.

The village lynched Katie WW

Lynch results ; Katie (8) Henry, Conor, Fiona, Desmond, Ewan, Isla, Gabriel, Gertrude

Henry (6) Orla, Katie, brendan, Phil, Derry, Liam

Clodagh (2) Nigel, Abi

Gertrude (2) Clodagh, Doris

Riona (2) Angus, Eva

Doris (1) frank
Ewan (1) Steve
Nigel (1) Riona
Orla (1) Holly
Steve (1) Mary

1 DID not vote - Barbara

Loughc wrote: »

Updated lynch votes;

Lynch results ; Katie (7) Henry, Conor, Fiona, Desmond, Ewan, Isla, Gabriel

Henry (6) Orla, Katie, Brendan, Phil, Derry, Liam

Clodagh (2) Nigel, Abi

Gertrude (2) Clodagh, Doris

Riona (2) Angus, Eva

Brendan (1) Gertrude
Doris (1) Frank
Ewan (1) Steve
Nigel (1) Riona
Orla (1) Holly
Steve (1) Mary

1 DID not vote - Barbara

Loughc wrote: »

As arguments rang out back and forth all day, the village was divided, who was telling the truth? After hours of arguement, action had to be taken and a plan was hatched. A small group of villagers disembarked across town to show they had the final say, they strung their message up for all to see.

GERTRUDE WW has been lynched

Gertrude (8) Derry, Henry, Isla, Phil, Liam, Desmond, Riona, Conor
Nigel (2) Holly, Gertrude
Derry (1)Abigail
Desmond (1) Nigel
Did Not Vote (1) Frank

Loughc wrote: »

The nightly town hall meeting continued. The townsfolk have decided enough was enough and there was one amongst them that have annoyed them for long enough, his posts and gifs have worn the townsfolk out, it was time to string him up.

Derry stood up and gulped....

and shouted...

As he helped the folk sting up the unsuspecting villager.

NIGEL WW Has been lynched.

Nigel (10) Derry, Connor, Isla, Henry, Holly, Frank, Riona, Phil, Liam, Desmond
Derry (1) Abigail
Desmond (1) Nigel

Liam WW · 03-03-2018 7:53pm

And the missing one. I figure we should take a look through this with regards the fact we reckon we know three baddies (Gert, Nigel, Frank) and see what else sticks out with regards our unknowns.

Digital Solitude wrote: »

The crowd became blood thirsty demanding someone hangs for this. After rounding up Derry and hanging a noose round his neck, a shout was heard from the top of the room. A note had been found, scrawled and signed by one Goldie Wilson, requesting that Derry be allowed to fight his corner another day. The crowd were out for blood but would follow their Mayor's orders, and so moved to the next name, Clodagh. She was quickly grabbed and hung until dead.

Clodagh WW has been lynched.

Derry (6) - Fiona, Gertrude, Riona, Liam, Angus, Abigail
Clodagh (5) - Conor, Holly, Nigel, Henry, Nigel, Derry
Frank (1) - Phil, Isla
Angus (1) - Desmond
Abigail (1) - Frank

Loughc · 03-03-2018 8:04pm

Conor WW wrote: »

Lynch form won't be open until after munch, but PM your vote to mods, and they'll likely take that as your vote.

I just want to confirm anyone not around between 10am and 1pm I will accept a PM vote before the Lynch Form is open.

Derry WW · 03-03-2018 8:12pm

Pop in. I must be the first person in Boards WW history to be lynched and still live.

Jokes aside, Henry please peek me next and put this Derry wolf argument to bed.

I HATE that I have to ask for this btw, I am certain Frank is Biff and we don't need to worry about a false peek but these are untrusting times we live in.

A confirmed villager is as good as a confirmed wolf at end game so just peek me and get it over with.

Liam WW · 03-03-2018 8:18pm

Right,

Nigel, Gert and Frank seemed to always vote independantly of each other.

Desmond voted the same way as Gert did on the Katie lynch, but had no overlap with Nigel or Frank.

Holly had one overlap with Gert, and one overlap with Nigel, and one overlap with Frank.

Isla had one overlap with Frank and one overlap with Gert. But zero overlaps with Nigel

Derry has one with Nigel and one with Frank, but both of these were on nights where the village were a larger batch.

I'm still working out to see if there's any patterns. Holly looks suspicious by virtue of overlaping with each once, but never anyone twice. Likewsie, Desmond and Gert both voted on the Katie vote when there was a larger group going for it.

Given we're working under the assumption we know the trio are evil, and (I think) that none of the three were SKs? Or are we saying Gert was possibly/probably one?

Derry WW wrote: »

I HATE that I have to ask for this btw, I am certain Frank is Biff and we don't need to worry about a false peek but these are untrusting times we live in.

A confirmed villager is as good as a confirmed wolf at end game so just peek me and get it over with.

What Id say is if you're good...you're very obviously going to be the distraction the wolves are relying on going into the end game. If we could clear you, then it gets rid of that narrative completely; Abi, for instance, would need an entirely new point to argue, Desmond has NO points he's arguing, and I don't know if Isla or Holly have been pushing it but it removes it completely, right?

You are, potentially, the wolves biggest asset right now, as your credibility is easy to question. Clear you and we move into the end game with the "Good Block" utterly solid, with no doubt spread between them.

Henry WW · 03-03-2018 8:21pm

Based on the lunch results ive my choice

WEREWOLF XXIV - Back to the Future

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