Spring 2018: General Discussion

Graces7 · 22-04-2018 4:00pm

Continuing windy and occasionally wet and decidedly chilly; West Mayo offshore island

Rock Lesnar · 22-04-2018 4:09pm

Breezy and Sunny here today, feeling cooler

Ultimate Seduction · 22-04-2018 6:30pm

Cool and blustery all-day with the odd few minutes of sunshine and odd shower. Not a bad day really Proper April weather.

sryanbruen · 22-04-2018 6:31pm

Been a lovely day here with plenty of sunshine. No showers at all.

Artane2002 · 22-04-2018 6:42pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Been a lovely day here with plenty of sunshine. No showers at all.

I had two (very light) showers earlier but otherwise, it's been a decent day.

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 4:16pm

Cloudy but decent day here with a nice breeze. No showers again.

Periscal · 23-04-2018 4:37pm

It was nice to get at least 4 reasonable spring days which will feel like a distant memory soon.
The morning update from MT Cranium didn't sound too pessimistic, then I looked at meteociel and got a shock.
From tomorrow right until the 2nd of May, GFS is predicting temperatures not even reaching double figures max. for my area! Perhaps it has a cold bias,otherwise it is not 1 or 2 degrees below, but 4-5 at least for period of 10 days in a row, after we will have 3 weeks of spring left with 4 days that felt like sprint overall and about 70 that felt like the end of November.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lon=-6.5325&lat=53.17&ville=Blessington

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 4:41pm

Periscal wrote: »

It was nice to get at least 4 reasonable spring days which will feel like a distant memory soon.
The morning update from MT Cranium didn't sound too pessimistic, then I looked at meteociel and got a shock.
From tomorrow right until the 2nd of May, GFS is predicting temperatures not even reaching double figures max. for my area! Perhaps it has a cold bias,otherwise it is not 1 or 2 degrees below, but 4-5 at least for period of 10 days in a row, after we will have 3 weeks of spring left with 4 days that felt like sprint overall and about 70 that felt like the end of November.

You need to add at least 2 degrees above what the GFS temperature maps show to be accurate. It undercooks the temperatures as was proved last week when expected temperatures were like only 16 or 17c in Dublin when it got to 19c. It's just like snow depth maps, don't take them literally though of course, temperature maps are more accurate.

Temperatures will be more likely around 9-12c. These will drop somewhat if the pattern is sustained and goes into a straight northerly with snow potential on higher ground increasing. We're in late April, remember that.

patneve2 · 23-04-2018 5:03pm

Agree...outlook looks quite poor with sub zero 850s progged for many days over the foreseeable future. Glad i enjoyed our 5 day spring

Periscal · 23-04-2018 5:29pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

You need to add at least 2 degrees above what the GFS temperature maps show to be accurate. It undercooks the temperatures as was proved last week when expected temperatures were like only 16 or 17c in Dublin when it got to 19c. It's just like snow depth maps, don't take them literally though of course, temperature maps are more accurate.

Temperatures will be more likely around 9-12c. These will drop somewhat if the pattern is sustained and goes into a straight northerly with snow potential on higher ground increasing. We're in late April, remember that.

I will look at ECMWF later. But 850hPa temps are set to be around -2 for at least 7 days! That is ens.mean,is that only 1 or degrees below average,or I am expecting more that should for 1st May,not sure of LTA for this time what they should be

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 5:37pm

Periscal wrote: »

I will look at ECMWF later. But 850hPa temps are set to be around -2 for at least 7 days! That is ens.mean,is that only 1 or degrees below average,or I am expecting more that should for 1st May,not sure of LTA for this time what they should be

We should be around 0 to 1c at 850hPa at this time of year. Here's the GFS 06z ensembles for Dublin for instance:

Last year at this time, we had a northerly spell before a sunny easterly which was warm for the west took over in early May. This brought us below average 850hPa temperatures but daytime temperatures were in the range I've named. 2016 also had a cold spell at the end and not to mention 2015 too! Each of these shared similar temperature ranges but 2016 was the coldest following the SSW event in March that year.

Expecting temperatures around 6-8c at best during the day this late in the season for a lot of places is a bit unrealistic in some situations like a straight northerly though with heavy rain certainly possible! Dublin Airport got up to only 6c on 14th May 1993 under heavy rain after temperatures up to 21c on the 11th/12th in Ireland a few days before this. On 6th June 2009, Dublin had 9c under heavy rain.

This week is a typical Irish week, sunshine and showers with a westerly breeze. The weekend according to outlooks though looks very unsettled and even colder with again the temperature range I've named being most likely but getting down further if persistent heavy rain occurs or sustained northerly to northeasterly winds.

Clonmel1000 · 23-04-2018 6:43pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Agree...outlook looks quite poor with sub zero 850s progged for many days over the foreseeable future. Glad i enjoyed our 5 day spring

We had 3 days.

Periscal · 23-04-2018 7:34pm

This week is a typical Irish week, sunshine and showers with a westerly breeze. The weekend according to outlooks though looks very unsettled and even colder with again the temperature range I've named being most likely but getting down further if persistent heavy rain occurs or sustained northerly to northeasterly winds.[/QUOTE]

So we will be closer to 4-5 degrees below then 1 or 2 I reckon, the difference maker in my eyes is the shear persistence of crap weather we endured since june 2017!, I know we can quote this as a typical Irish week, but apart from few days last week we are stuck in a very bad pattern for long long time,unfortunately nothing can be done as we are located where we are, it looks very likely that if you look at the April temperature re-analysis Ireland will be the only country in Europe in blue colors yet the rest of the Europe is enduring +2 or more above average April

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 7:53pm

Periscal wrote: »

So we will be closer to 4-5 degrees below then 1 or 2 I reckon, the difference maker in my eyes is the shear persistence of crap weather we endured since june 2017!, I know we can quote this as a typical Irish week, but apart from few days last week we are stuck in a very bad pattern for long long time,unfortunately nothing can be done as we are located where we are, it looks very likely that if you look at the April temperature re-analysis Ireland will be the only country in Europe in blue colors yet the rest of the Europe is enduring +2 or more above average April

The "persistence of crap weather" is also typical, we have endured it lots of times before, 2012-13 comes to my mind in particular. I personally have found this better than 2012-13 (that lasted from April 2012 to May 2013) which will remain as the most depressing part of my life in all aspects from life experience to the weather to everything. Another time was 2015 into 2016. These are only recent examples. So this is nothing new to me. Unlike 2012-13 which doesn't have a single good month to me, 2017-18 had a great November and a beautiful February with so much sunshine. I also liked December and January though December gives me memories of being triggered (I'm looking at you December 10th.......). October, March and April have been absolute rubbish. The rest were mediocre to me. Summer 2018 doesn't look pretty either but that's a story for another thread.

Ireland is not alone in the cold weather this Spring, the US has had an extremely bad April in terms of cold and snow as well as March. Edmonton, Canada broke records for a consecutive run of ice days. On the 13th April, it had its 167th consecutive day of below freezing temperatures. Snowfall records for April were broken in the US states. I'm sure you will find that a lot of them have been annoyed with the weather and rather not talk about it including my friend from over there.

Usually when we have a poor spell of weather, Mother Nature tends to balance it out at some point, same with the vice versa.

I don't think many deny that this has been a crap Spring.

Artane2002 · 23-04-2018 7:58pm

Tbh if this week is going to be like today I honestly wouldn't grumble. It's been very decent in Dublin with a nice breeze and some sunny spells. There's nothing to complain about today.

To add on to Sryan's last post, I've enjoyed every month from October 2017 to March 2018. April has been pretty bad.

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 7:59pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Tbh if this week is going to be like today I honestly wouldn't grumble. It's been very decent in Dublin with a nice breeze and some sunny spells. There's nothing to complain about today.

The weekend though looks very bad especially the latter part into next week.

Artane2002 · 23-04-2018 8:04pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The weekend though looks very bad especially the latter part into next week.

I wouldn't mind that either. I know this is weird but I don't want fine weather

Drizzle would be perfect, nothing too bad but still enough for me to stay indoors.

sryanbruen · 23-04-2018 8:06pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I wouldn't mind that either. I know this is weird but I don't want fine weather

Drizzle would be perfect, nothing too bad but still enough for me to stay indoors.

So you don't want days like today? :cool:

This is me everyday thinking about December 10th 2017.

Artane2002 · 23-04-2018 8:37pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

So you don't want days like today? :cool:

This is me everyday thinking about December 10th 2017.

I wouldn't complain about days like today but they're not ideal. December 10 2017 was... interesting. I had rain, hail and sleet but no snow.

I let that day go because of the Beast from the East

Periscal · 23-04-2018 10:11pm

As an Irishman I would indeed call today as a reasonable fine day, unfortunately coming from continental Europe it takes more to please me then windy 14 degrees,anyway for a Monday I wouldn't care, as weekend matters more for outdoor activities for me and the one gone was nice.
Talking about crap spells, there were few allright, abysmal 2012, promising 2007 April which led to mediocre summer, same as 2008 and 2009 which had nice spring and all changed after June bank holiday, I am hoping for a bit of reverse psychology and hope we can flip to a nice June,July combo, actually my summer analogues happen to be quite nice (2006,1996),my criteria was a state of ENSO,QBO and SOLAR, although I would not like to see the continental heat building so much and that massive euro high can bugger of, as we need the Azores high to collapse over us and block of those Atlantic low pressures aka summer 2013. I hate to see these Euro highs and quasi static lows to the west of Ireland or very strong -NAO and UK through, they can take ages to fill

sryanbruen wrote: »

The "persistence of crap weather" is also typical, we have endured it lots of times before, 2012-13 comes to my mind in particular. I personally have found this better than 2012-13 (that lasted from April 2012 to May 2013) which will remain as the most depressing part of my life in all aspects from life experience to the weather to everything. Another time was 2015 into 2016. These are only recent examples. So this is nothing new to me. Unlike 2012-13 which doesn't have a single good month to me, 2017-18 had a great November and a beautiful February with so much sunshine. I also liked December and January though December gives me memories of being triggered (I'm looking at you December 10th.......). October, March and April have been absolute rubbish. The rest were mediocre to me. Summer 2018 doesn't look pretty either but that's a story for another thread.

Ireland is not alone in the cold weather this Spring, the US has had an extremely bad April in terms of cold and snow as well as March. Edmonton, Canada broke records for a consecutive run of ice days. On the 13th April, it had its 167th consecutive day of below freezing temperatures. Snowfall records for April were broken in the US states. I'm sure you will find that a lot of them have been annoyed with the weather and rather not talk about it including my friend from over there.

Usually when we have a poor spell of weather, Mother Nature tends to balance it out at some point, same with the vice versa.

I don't think many deny that this has been a crap Spring.

Say my name · 23-04-2018 10:33pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The "persistence of crap weather" is also typical, we have endured it lots of times before, 2012-13 comes to my mind in particular. I personally have found this better than 2012-13 (that lasted from April 2012 to May 2013) which will remain as the most depressing part of my life in all aspects from life experience to the weather to everything. Another time was 2015 into 2016. These are only recent examples. So this is nothing new to me. Unlike 2012-13 which doesn't have a single good month to me, 2017-18 had a great November and a beautiful February with so much sunshine. I also liked December and January though December gives me memories of being triggered (I'm looking at you December 10th.......). October, March and April have been absolute rubbish. The rest were mediocre to me. Summer 2018 doesn't look pretty either but that's a story for another thread.

Ireland is not alone in the cold weather this Spring, the US has had an extremely bad April in terms of cold and snow as well as March. Edmonton, Canada broke records for a consecutive run of ice days. On the 13th April, it had its 167th consecutive day of below freezing temperatures. Snowfall records for April were broken in the US states. I'm sure you will find that a lot of them have been annoyed with the weather and rather not talk about it including my friend from over there.

Usually when we have a poor spell of weather, Mother Nature tends to balance it out at some point, same with the vice versa.

I don't think many deny that this has been a crap Spring.

I have an inkling you've seen the ENSO outlook from a certain very good YouTuber yesterday.

It looks like we could be heading in to a drier back end of the year. Maybe getting drier around July.
There's a lot of maybes and possibles in that as any forecast but we could be looking at some extreme frosty weather for next winter. Obviously if it goes to an El Nino it won't be frosty but stormy but that's an outlier situation atm.

sryanbruen · 24-04-2018 7:25am

Say my name wrote: »

I have an inkling you've seen the ENSO outlook from a certain very good YouTuber yesterday.

It looks like we could be heading in to a drier back end of the year. Maybe getting drier around July.
There's a lot of maybes and possibles in that as any forecast but we could be looking at some extreme frosty weather for next winter. Obviously if it goes to an El Nino it won't be frosty but stormy but that's an outlier situation atm.

I take all ENSO outlooks with a large pinch of salt pre-June, just look at last year's disaster

when it was going to be El Nino. June 2017's SOI was quite negative but then July's was quite positive as La Nina started becoming a thing.

The La Nina signature is definitely going away by the signs of things now.