Spring 2018: General Discussion

sryanbruen

Let's look at the bigger picture for this potential second easterly.

The NAO is predicted to go closer to neutral or even positive a bit but this keeps getting delayed further or backdated as we get further to the timeframe. For the next week and a half, the NAO is expected to stay in its negative form albeit just relatively negative in between 0 to -1.5. This shows the Greenland high that retrogressed over to North America during the early part of March is still evident.

Parts of the eastern seaboard have had some notable snowfalls recently courtesy of classic nor'easters following on from a very warm spell during late February. This has tended to power up the Polar Jet for us bringing low pressure systems despite it being on a southerly track and the zonal winds being weaker than normal. After this cold and snowy start to March in contrast to the very warm late February in the eastern US, a warm up is expected during the middle of the month. This warm up is more focused on the middle swave of the US than the eastern seaboard but they will be at least much milder than they have been to say the least.

The Canadian Warming has yet to have its tropospheric response. Some say it already has with obliterating the Polar Vortex after the split from the major SSW. However, what makes me skeptical of this is that the impacts they speak of happened before 10 days and in fact, just under 7 days which is below the minimum point of impact from stratospheric events on the troposphere. There was also the third warming spike on Tuesday, February 27th which caused some complication for me. This dive into reversed zonal winds through mid to late March is expected to be the final warming of the season and if you ask me, is a tropospheric response to the Canadian Warming that occurred on 18th/19th February. Eurasia is expected to take a jump down in temperature courtesy of this, most notably eastern Europe. Unclear whether this will make it to the UK and Ireland on some models.

The MJO has shifted to phase 3 which according to experts is not good for cold.

The UKMO is now starting to hint at wintry potential in their long range forecasts.

The AO is quite similar to the NAO but around day 10 or so, there is a very large split between ensembles on if it will stay negative or positive. The majority stay neutral to negative but some ensembles go very positive.

ENSO still has a La Nina signature and the warm pool of SSTs that was developing in the eastern Equatorial Pacific seems to have weakened significantly now.

Quite a messy picture.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There might be
There’s some nice spring warmth developing in Romania for example
Southerlies and southeasterlies here will get the temp back up
The latter would be relatively dry

What methodology shows this though? I'd love if it did.

Romania is far off from the Emerald Isle. We rarely get the same weather as England, never mind Romania :P.

sryanbruen

Saying the above, it's turned into a nice day here now. Feeling mild, sunny spells. Proper Spring weather!

It's the UK's warmest day of the year so far.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/972507770808389633

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/972549559372189697

nacho libre

A much better outlook this evening for cold. A very encouraging update from the UK Met Office too. More snow for those who want it certainly looks possible from most of the latest model output.

nacho libre

Those who told the snow to feck off think again! The child of the beast wants to visit Ireland

kingshankly

nacho libre wrote: »

A much better outlook this evening for cold. A very encouraging update from the UK Met Office too. More snow for those who want it certainly looks possible from most of the latest model output.

Why on earth do we want snow mid/late March it’s a bit of heat surely we need after a cold winter

nacho libre

kingshankly wrote: »

Why on earth do we want snow mid/late March it’s a bit of heat surely we need after a cold winter

Plenty of time for heat in May, June and July.

km79

nacho libre wrote: »

Plenty of time for heat in May, June and July.

Which we never get
I want to turn the heating off and stop burning money. I'd like to start cutting the lawn at some point too.
Ye had yere fun now it's time for the sun bunnies

JCX BXC

km79 wrote: »

Which we never get
I want to turn the heating off and stop burning money. I'd like to start cutting the lawn at some point too.
Ye had yere fun now it's time for the sun bunnies

What good is sun in March
06Z GFS is just not having the cold, keeping it entirely over Russia, whereas the 00Z had it over the UK (-10 Uppers) on the same time frame (12Z 18/03)

CloughCasey1

JCX BXC wrote: »

What good is sun in March
06Z GFS is just not having the cold, keeping it entirely over Russia, whereas the 00Z had it over the UK (-10 Uppers) on the same time frame (12Z 18/03)

It gets the grass moving and with the current fodder crisis most farmers taking it in the neck and heavily on the pocket and that little bit of growth would take the pressure off. Farmers dug out the country the first time, lost stock, sheds and tillage farmers are weeks behind schedule. As much as i like snow i hope we dont get a second bite from the east!!

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Plenty of time for heat in May, June and July.

Which is not looking like going to happen, the signs get worse and worse.

Carol25

sryanbruen wrote: »

Which is not looking like going to happen, the signs get worse and worse.

Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.

JCX BXC

Carol25 wrote: »

Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.

His forecasts hold little to no merit in my view. Not as bad as James Madden, but you'll notice Mr.Ring never has a non-controversial forecast, and that's not a coincidence.

sryanbruen

Carol25 wrote: »

Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.

Only once I have due to how controversial he is, I do not know much about him so I can't really give an opinion. I do know he has posted on Boards.ie before because I've seen his posts looking through old threads.

He has said that Summer 2018 after 2013 would be the next warm Summer. I was wondering where he got this from. As he got 2013 correct, I was intrigued. I'll be surprised to see him come out right about Summer 2018 seeing what all my methodology (for now at least) has to say about the potential scenarios for the season.

Like with all long range forecasts, take them with a pinch of salt. I do them just for fun.

aidanodr

RETURN OF THE BEAST? TV3 weatherman raises fears Beast from the East could return to cause chaos on St Patrick’s weekend

Deric Ó hArtagáin has warned that recent patterns could be indicating a return of the weather hell

https://twitter.com/deric_hartigan/status/972909547970015232

JCX BXC

RTE ME forecast mentioning a downward trend next weekend, don't change your winter tires just yet!

nacho libre

The beast is knocking on the door. Have you all changed your locks after the last event?

M.T. Cranium

So far this looks more like the marginal situations we have too much experience with, at least for Ireland, agreed it looks somewhat promising for southern England on models. Not quite the same depth of cold air as last time, and a somewhat more resilient Atlantic, would not be too worried about a repeat of the earlier chaos, but chance for some -5 C lows and scattered light snowfalls.

hatrickpatrick

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So far this looks more like the marginal situations we have too much experience with, at least for Ireland, agreed it looks somewhat promising for southern England on models. Not quite the same depth of cold air as last time, and a somewhat more resilient Atlantic, would not be too worried about a repeat of the earlier chaos, but chance for some -5 C lows and scattered light snowfalls.

Given the chart above, do you reckon the Dublin Bay area has a decent shot at a bit of sticking snow? Looks to me like we'll be basically just inside the "cold tent", but I have very little experience with how these things pan out when you're right at the edge of them as opposed to firmly on one side or the other.

Gaoth Laidir

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM a shift north but similar to UKMO until +120hrs, end result = mini beast and a return to deep winter for a few days.

Maybe we should call this one the Least from the East

Graces7

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

It gets the grass moving and with the current fodder crisis most farmers taking it in the neck and heavily on the pocket and that little bit of growth would take the pressure off. Farmers dug out the country the first time, lost stock, sheds and tillage farmers are weeks behind schedule. As much as i like snow i hope we dont get a second bite from the east!!

Lovely to see daffodils and lambs..

DominoDub

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Maybe we should call this one the Least from the East

I have just seen "Mandy from Scandi" on Twitter

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Just think we go years without easterly, then two are a possibility within two weeks of each other.

Just an observation, but with the increasing emphasis on cold war politics becoming established once again, that cold war atmospheric patterns curiously seem to be falling into line. The 'Beast from the East' and the 'Pest from the West' may come to have more meanings than one...

Calibos

The Monster from Murmansk??

wakka12

I think heavy snow again so late in winter after so much so recently will really freak the public out!

Elmer Blooker

Doesn't old weather lore say that when snow remains on the hills theres more to come? Well, I'm amazed that there are still large drifts at a very low level on the Dublin hills with temperatures back up to double figures and the nights mostly cloudy and quite a bit of rain too.
They are obviously large drifts but as I said already they are at a very low level.

With all that panic buying of bread how about The Yeast from the east?

Rebelbrowser

We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

Billcarson

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

Kermit will probably wait till tomorrow at the earliest, perhaps Wednesday lol.

dacogawa

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

I see a scene like this at around 18:20...

sdanseo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

Billcarson wrote: »

Kermit will probably wait till tomorrow at the earliest, perhaps Wednesday lol.

As much and as though it brought great joy, I thought the previous thread was up and running maybe 24hrs before it was nailed.

Weds is plenty of time for this. Let's not give heart attacks to the already war-weakened.