Spring 2018: General Discussion

Artane2002

Lovely day in Dublin. Not mild but not cold either. We had a shower a few minutes ago but other than that there was surprising good drying.

nacho libre

here is an interesting post from a knowledgeable member over on netweather, a fig leaf for those who want something warmer:

"There is talk of a fairly early "final warming" in the strat occurring imminently and impacting in the coming days. This is likely to have far less influence but might help to maintain the cold for rather longer. I still favour more of a north-easterly to northerly flow, perhaps following a few less cold days with pretty cold conditions continuing for a while. Judah Cohen and several others, also favour this outcome with a cold trough dropping into Scandinavia within the next week or so. I've noted several references on here to March 1965. Some have pointed out how cold that month was but this is not entirely accurate. Like this March it started off with a very cold and snowy spell with the British minimum March record temp being set with -21.7c. Again like this March, there was a milder interlude for a week or so before another very cold spell. What has not been mentioned is that March 1965 ended with a heatwave and a record March maximum temp of 25c! I will not show the archive charts for that month but here's a link to the Met Office's Monthly Weather Report which makes for fascinating reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/f/mar1965.pdf

Now I am not saying that this year will replicate March 1965 or March/April 2013, just that I feel there's enough evidence to support further generally cold weather for a few more weeks. I'll end with, perhaps, some better news for those wishing to see some much more springlike weather. The La Nina is continuing to weaken and the ENSO state is likely to be more or less neutral within a few weeks. This stage of that cycle at this time of the year is often associated with fairly blocked patterns and weak jet streams. The continent starts to warm up rapidly as we move further into the spring season. it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "

sryanbruen

March 1965 is one of the most interesting Marches you could find but I don't think March 2018 replicates it very much. March 1962 is very similar though including solar activity - we all know what happened after March 1962 of course.

jdcv94

nacho libre wrote: »

it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "

I asked a question about this earlier in thread, if we're getting continental air would our weather then suddenly shift from cold to warm in April like in Russia or Canada.

jdcv94 wrote: »

Seeing as the jet stream is off on it's jolly boy's outing right now to Morocco with no signs of it returning on FI, what would this mean for our climate as we move into April/May? For arguments sake let's say the jet really likes it in Morocco and does not return in the near future and it's mid April. Would our climate have almost a Russian/Canadian effect where the snow/heat turns on it's head and we suddenly have Russian heat rather than cold?

George Sunsnow wrote: »

We are too small too far west jutting into one of the worlds largest moisture sources unlike a continent
It would be a duller wetter summer with slow moving low pressure systems meandering in from the south,sticking around due to their lack of momentum as they’ve no jet power moving them along
Instead of looking to build ups of highs from the west,you’d need to look north or northeast for them and they in the rare event that they’d visited would be mainly blocked from us by the slow low procession from the south
So not a very nice scenario

I guess it would be warmer but not necessarily drier, as the rainy westerly flow has been replaced with lows from Biscay.

Oscar Bravo

Rather nice afternoon here in Castlebar .10 degrees in a light SE breeze. Will escape the worst(best) of it over the weekend also, cold but mostly dry.

Rock Lesnar

Horrible day here, rain rain and more rain

km79

Very pleasant in East galway

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

here is an interesting post from a knowledgeable member over on netweather, a fig leaf for those who want something warmer:

"There is talk of a fairly early "final warming" in the strat occurring imminently and impacting in the coming days. This is likely to have far less influence but might help to maintain the cold for rather longer. I still favour more of a north-easterly to northerly flow, perhaps following a few less cold days with pretty cold conditions continuing for a while. Judah Cohen and several others, also favour this outcome with a cold trough dropping into Scandinavia within the next week or so. I've noted several references on here to March 1965. Some have pointed out how cold that month was but this is not entirely accurate. Like this March it started off with a very cold and snowy spell with the British minimum March record temp being set with -21.7c. Again like this March, there was a milder interlude for a week or so before another very cold spell. What has not been mentioned is that March 1965 ended with a heatwave and a record March maximum temp of 25c! I will not show the archive charts for that month but here's a link to the Met Office's Monthly Weather Report which makes for fascinating reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/f/mar1965.pdf

Now I am not saying that this year will replicate March 1965 or March/April 2013, just that I feel there's enough evidence to support further generally cold weather for a few more weeks. I'll end with, perhaps, some better news for those wishing to see some much more springlike weather. The La Nina is continuing to weaken and the ENSO state is likely to be more or less neutral within a few weeks. This stage of that cycle at this time of the year is often associated with fairly blocked patterns and weak jet streams. The continent starts to warm up rapidly as we move further into the spring season. it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "

Interesting commentary Nacho, but I will say, that 9 times out of 10, that in the period mid-April into May, it tends to becomes drier and warmer anyway. Indeed, this period is one of the driest on average in Ireland at least.

Artane2002

I wonder if this March is giving the wettest March on record a run for it's money (Dublin Airport to be specific) It has been a very very wet month if we include the snowfall too.

Graces7

Lovely day here; West Mayo

Artane2002

Lovely evening after a terrible start. It was drizzly and feeling cold. I had to stand in that muck for close to 2 hours...

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

I wonder if this March is giving the wettest March on record a run for it's money (Dublin Airport to be specific) It has been a very very wet month if we include the snowfall too.

The wettest March on record for Dublin Airport (records go back to 1942) was 1964 with 106.6mm of rainfall. March 2008 came close at 102.4mm. March 2018 up to the 15th is at 142.7mm.

Data from Met Éireann.

Artane2002

Wow... so it's the wettest March on record in DUB by a big margin just halfway throughout the month?!

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

The wettest March on record for Dublin Airport (records go back to 1942) was 1964 with 106.6mm of rainfall. March 2008 came close at 102.4mm. March 2018 up to the 15th is at 142.7mm.

Data from Met Éireann.

I think you mean 42.7 mm, Sryan?

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think you mean 42.7 mm, Sryan?

No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow.



Casement Aerodrome in comparison:

gabeeg

Schoolboy error

gabeeg

Oh

Maybe not. Sorry

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow.

Jaysus. I didn't think it'd be that much! Sorry for doubting the Statman!

Artane2002

This is mental. Already this year Dublin Airport has 40% of the precip that fell last year. Normally you would expect to see that much precip by May.

Rougies

That's crazy. How did Dublin Airport get 101.9mm more than Casement in the month so far?

HighLine

sryanbruen wrote: »

No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow.



Casement Aerodrome in comparison:

Surely an error? There is 18km between the two locations.

JCX BXC

Also, it's very confusing that Dublin Airport recorded so much more precipitation than Casement, yet Casement had higher snowfall totals.

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Jaysus. I didn't think it'd be that much! Sorry for doubting the Statman!

It is skeptical - see my response here to HighLine's comment on why I think it's skeptical.

HighLine wrote: »

Surely an error? There is 18km between the two locations.

I have been saying the same since the start of the month , I think multiple of us have. It was the same awkward nature with the precipitation totals for the beast from the east and Emma with Casement Aerodrome having less precipitation than Dublin Airport but deeper snow depths. For evident of this, see Gaoth Laidir's graphs in the technical discussion thread of the previous event: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057844498&page=109

Here's the cumulative rainfall charts for both stations.

Dublin Airport:

Removed because Gaoth Laidir included it in his post below.

Casement Aerodrome:



I cannot understand why these totals and differences of statistics for stations of not much distance away can differ very high.

Other stations have had very high rainfall totals up to March 15th too, not just Dublin Airport.

Johnstown Castle - 129.6mm
Roches Point - 127.1mm
Dunsany - 113.3mm
Cork Airport - 102.4mm

All these are above full March monthly rainfall averages.

See all these graphs and rainfall totals for yourself at http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp.

Gaoth Laidir

HighLine wrote: »

Surely an error? There is 18km between the two locations.

30-40 mm three days in a row at the start of the month? I seriously doubt it. Looks like an error.

https://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=532

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Interesting commentary Nacho, but I will say, that 9 times out of 10, that in the period mid-April into May, it tends to becomes drier and warmer anyway. Indeed, this period is one of the driest on average in Ireland at least.

I think he meant warmer and drier than usual due to the possible continental feed in a blocked pattern. Although if the jetstream is still so far south, as jdcv94 mentioned, it might mean we alternate between lows from biscay, and drier continental air from the east. So it could be good for thunderstorms fans, if lows from Biscay do pay us a visit.

Artane2002

Maybe Casement is the station with the error. Dublin Airport's total doesn't look too outlandish compared to other nearby stations.

Edit: Phoenix Park has a bit over 71mm of precipitation so far this month. Big difference from Casement and Dublin Airport considering how close they are.

Donegal Storm

Casement supposedly recorded 16cm of snow from 0.3mm of precipitation at the start of the event so I'd be dubious of their readings for the snow days as well.

I can only guess that the wind played a part in both recordings, the snow was drifting in waves even on level ground so perhaps the rain gauge at the airport is at a location where snow was collecting in drifts and so the gauge was capturing blowing snow while Casement might have been the opposite with most of it being blown over the gauge

sryanbruen

In fact, I tweeted about this on the 5th March:

https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/970595554815303680

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

In fact, I tweeted about this on the 5th March:

https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/970595554815303680

Like yourself and others, I too am sceptical about these totals because the weather system, which wasn't even frontal to any great extent, which brought the snowy conditions, was not in anyway what you would call active. Had the same system brought rain instead of snow, I doubt we would have seen anything above 10mm, even in the exposed east.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

I think he meant warmer and drier than usual due to the possible continental feed in a blocked pattern. Although if the jetstream is still so far south, as jdcv94 mentioned, it might mean we alternate between lows from biscay, and drier continental air from the east. So it could be good for thunderstorms fans, if lows from Biscay do pay us a visit.

I don't envy your current place of residence as London and the SE in general endures a horrible type of heat for much of the June-Sept period, though this can be compensated for somewhat by epic thunderstorms the region often experiences.