Spring 2018: General Discussion

sryanbruen

GFS ensembles show a recovery in the AO with our brief Atlantic interval before falling back down to negative. The blue line I've marked is an estimate of the ensemble mean.

John.Icy

There will be no spring for another few weeks if anything like the GFS 18z comes off. Big Greenie block developing. Round 3??

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I don't envy your current place of residence as London and the SE in general endures a horrible type of heat for much of the June-Sept period, though this can be compensated for somewhat by epic thunderstorms the region often experiences.

Yes it's good for thunderstorms, and has been good for snow this year:D

I can survive the heat here no problem, after spending time in the Amazon and the phillpines it prepares you for anything.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Like yourself and others, I too am sceptical about these totals because the weather system, which wasn't even frontal to any great extent, which brought the snowy conditions, was not in anyway what you would call active. Had the same system brought rain instead of snow, I doubt we would have seen anything above 10mm, even in the exposed east.

Yep - definitely some sort of instrumental error at DA due to the drifting snow.

sryanbruen

They have not updated the composite at NOAA since the 14th but this is how March 2018's 500mb height anomaly looks up to the 14th.

jdcv94

ECM looking good for Spring to start 10 days out with HP forming.

JCX BXC

Knock airport reporting an amazingly low humidity of 37%! 58% here in West Clare, not to paraphrase the infamous TV3 weather man but it's a great day for drying!

sryanbruen

30hPa in the stratosphere is still relatively warm.



Snow and ice cover chart for 18 March 2018.

Gaoth Laidir

SST anomalies are fairly negative around Europe at the moment, so any high pressure to our northeast or east could lead to widespread anticyclone gloom over the next month or two in southerly or southeasterly winds.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM seems to be out if kilter with the clusters, more of them lean toward the GFS OP. I certainly hope the GFS is correct. I'm ready for the beast from the north. There are tentative signs km79 and others may get their wish in and around mid april. Only a bit over seven months till November now anyway:D. Lets hope we get a very early snowfall this November, then a revist by the father of the beast in early January.

Whilst I'm certainly not ruling out the chance of it, at this stage, another cold November I think is very unlikely, we've had two consecutive cold Novembers now in 2016 and 2017. Examples of cool/cold Novembers for the IMT before these were 2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2000, 1996, 1993, 1988, 1985, 1984, 1982. Notice how none of these are three consecutive colder than average Novembers.

Have to admit, I was thinking November 2017 would be a mild month going by how cold November 2016 was but Mother Nature proved me wrong and gave us another beautiful November - would be even more beautiful if there was snow :cool:.

November 2010 and 1985 are the coldest Novembers in the last 30 or so years with IMTs of 5.0 and 4.5 respectively in comparison to the November average of 7.2. I may do a post on November 1985 sometime, you already know a huge article is coming on November/December 2010 in the future which I want to be as in-depth as possible .

jdcv94

So the ECM going in line with the other models means we're looking at a general trend of cool to cold conditions for the next 10 days at least, perhaps more if the Jet Stream continues on it's Odyssey. Anyone else find this a bit depressing? Cold at this time of year just lurks, snow will melt quickly and northerlies at this time of year won't do much outside of Ulster unless you're on higher ground.

The only thing I could compare this to is 2013 when winter (in terms of temps) extended until May http://www.thejournal.ie/april-cold-ireland-892012-May2013/ , I hated that spell so much! Although we can all agree that the upside to that was the incredible Leaving Cert weather that year . So I hope for something similar here if I can't have the mild south westerlies back.

Gaoth Laidir

There's a distinct lack of buds on the trees this year. The cherry blossoms should be making an appearance in the next few weeks but there's little chance of that. The daffodils too are way behind (in my area anyway).

giveitholly

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There's a distinct lack of buds on the trees this year. The cherry blossoms should be making an appearance in the next few weeks but there's little chance of that. The daffodils too are way behind (in my area anyway).

Yeah my daffodils still have to make an appearance

JCX BXC

Daffodils are blooming here in West Clare

NAGDEFI

JCX BXC wrote: »

Daffodils are blooming here in West Clare

They are a very resilient flower. I suppose hundreds of years have resulted in them adapting to wintry spring weather. I saw daffodils flattened in Portlaoise in late Feb\early March and again looking wilted and dead yesterday looking great today

All credit to daffodils at the end of the day:P

nacho libre

jdcv94 wrote: »

So the ECM going in line with the other models means we're looking at a general trend of cool to cold conditions for the next 10 days at least, perhaps more if the Jet Stream continues on it's Odyssey. Anyone else find this a bit depressing? Cold at this time of year just lurks, snow will melt quickly and northerlies at this time of year won't do much outside of Ulster unless you're on higher ground.

The only thing I could compare this to is 2013 when winter (in terms of temps) extended until May http://www.thejournal.ie/april-cold-ireland-892012-May2013/ , I hated that spell so much! Although we can all agree that the upside to that was the incredible Leaving Cert weather that year . So I hope for something similar here if I can't have the mild south westerlies back.

Humans differ:) I find this weather is uplifting.
Mild and wet south westerlies, no thanks. We have that for most of the year! The reason i'm loving the cold and snow is there's no guarantee we won't be snowless in years to come, or rather more likely is that it will be a long time before we see as potent an easterly again. I guess some people will be glad if that happens, though. I won't be one of them!

Oneiric 3

Graph showing the 'IMT' temp anomaly trend, based on a 6 month running mean, over the last 4 years or so. As yous canny see, are now in the coolest period, relative to 'normal', since late Summer 2015.



The data includes this current March, and assumes will finish at approx 1.0c below the stated average. The current anomaly for the month up to the 18th is standing at -1.8 deg.C

If the latest EC45 run proves correct (issued 4 days ago) then it is possible that any anomalous warmth over the next month or so would be fleeting at best.

Data, as always, from Met Éireann.

Oneiric 3

For me, I am enjoying the largely dry weather, which is more than well earned for us in the wild west. Couldn't care less about snow at this time of the year. My focus at this point in time is on my garden and any future convective potential. When it comes to the true might of Thor, snow will always be a far behind second.

Oneiric 3

NAGDEFI wrote: »

They are a very resilient flower. I suppose hundreds of years have resulted in them adapting to wintry spring weather. I saw daffodils flattened in Portlaoise in late Feb\early March and again looking wilted and dead yesterday looking great today

All credit to daffodils at the end of the day:P

No Daffs here as far as I can see.

SleetAndSnow

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

No Daffs here as far as I can see.

I got some growing in my front garden in Cork City since around the middle of feb. The got squashed totally during Beast number 1 and thought that was them gone (I love them, make the garden really bright), but saw them again two days ago, bright, strong and blooming. Still are today too. Lovely plants.

JCX BXC

Quite a bunch here.

Donegal Storm

I saw a few cherry blossoms starting to bloom in Carton House over the weekend, the odd daffodil here and there and some baby lambs in the fields as well. A late start to Spring this year but new growth is emerging slowly but surely

SleetAndSnow

Theres only one tree in my estate (besides the evergreens) that has buds on it. The rest are still totally bare with no sign of the buds appearing yet, and there are plenty of trees around me. Strange to see but I would say if we got any heat for maybe a week (13/14 degrees?) they would appear like wildfire.

NAGDEFI

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

No Daffs here as far as I can see.

At my homeplace the green shoots are just 2-3in above ground. Huge difference in there and Portlaoise/Carlow towns.

NAGDEFI

One thing i like about a cold Spring is that you can almost skip a season into Summer some years.

1989 saw a very cold April. Towards the end of the month the wind changed to the south. On April 30th we reached 20C. Mid May saw record breaking temperatures in the mid 20s.

What i really hate is an early what i term 'false' Spring. 1998, 16C on Valentines Day and during that week. Early green growth. By the signing of the Good Friday Agreement on 10th April,bitter north easterlies, -5C at night. All the early growth was literally burnt brown with the frost. It was an awful sight. All the laurel and shrubbery and early growth burnt off. Also the summer was wet and cool.

NAGDEFI

Then there are years with nice, pleasant Spring weather that sets the tone for the year. From memory the weather took up, so to speak, on 8th March 2003. Mid to late month there was some lovely sunny fine weather with temperatures in the mid teens by day and only slight frost at night. April was a lovely warm month also. Easter fell around mid April and temperatures reached 20C on Holy Thursday and Good Friday. A cool spell ended the month, not particularly cold. The following summer was good, a very warm June with a notable fine spell mid month. And August was particularly warm and Kilkenny Met Station recorded 2mm rainfall total for the whole month. September produced an outstanding mid month heatwave. Temperatures hitting 25C for about 4 days in a row.

2007 had a beautiful April and May. April was reaching 22C early in April. Unfortunately the weather broke down the end of May/ start of June. The first of a run of wet summers until 2013, with perhaps the exception of 2010.

sryanbruen

NAGDEFI wrote: »

Then there are years with nice, pleasant Spring weather that sets the tone for the year. From memory the weather took up, so to speak, on 8th March 2003. Mid to late month there was some lovely sunny fine weather with temperatures in the mid teens by day and only slight frost at night. April was a lovely warm month also. Easter fell around mid April and temperatures reached 20C on Holy Thursday and Good Friday. A cool spell ended the month, not particularly cold. The following summer was good, a very warm June with a notable fine spell mid month. And August was particularly warm and Kilkenny Met Station recorded 2mm rainfall total for the whole month. September produced an outstanding mid month heatwave. Temperatures hitting 25C for about 4 days in a row.

2007 had a beautiful April and May. April was reaching 22C early in April. Unfortunately the weather broke down the end of May/ start of June. The first of a run of wet summers until 2013, with perhaps the exception of 2010.

The 12th March 2003 was the day when the high pressure ridged in from the south and west. It stayed with us for a good while bringing plenty of sunshine, it was the sunniest March on record in places. Casement Aerodrome had 176 hours of sun, 174% of its average for March. The IMT for March 2003 was a comfortably warm 8.4c, only 0.4c cooler than March 2012's IMT of 8.8c.



A week later on the same day, high has barely moved itself.



Every month of 2003 bar October was warmer than average though January and February had some severe frosts. 2003 is one of the better years you can find weather wise as a sun and warm lover.

NAGDEFI

sryanbruen wrote: »

The 12th March 2003 was the day when the high pressure ridged in from the south and west. It stayed with us for a good while bringing plenty of sunshine, it was the sunniest March on record in places. Casement Aerodrome had 176 hours of sun, 174% of its average for March. The IMT for March 2003 was a comfortably warm 8.4c, only 0.4c cooler than March 2012's IMT of 8.8c.

Very good.Yes the sunshine must have started the 12th. I remember it was grey but mildish on the 8th and i was sowing flowers and transplanting boxes with glass covers outdoors which was unusual at home.

The earliest date cattle were let out at home was March 23rd 2007. Now we always tend to have cattle indoors a month later at the start of the year and in a month earlier in September or October, with altitude. Incidentally autumn 2007 was mild so we brought in the last of our cattle to sheds, from the driest pastures, on 30th November that year. So records at either end

sryanbruen

NAGDEFI wrote: »

Very good.Yes the sunshine must have started the 12th. I remember it was grey but mildish on the 8th and i was sowing flowers and transplanting boxes with glass covers outdoors which was unusual at home.

The earliest date cattle were let out at home was March 23rd 2007. Now we always tend to have cattle indoors a month later at the start of the year and in a month earlier in September or October, with altitude. Incidentally autumn 2007 was mild so we brought in the last of our cattle to sheds, from the driest pastures, on 30th November that year. So records at either end

Meant to say, thanks for discounting 2010 in those Summers, as you know I love that Summer to bits and feel that it gets overshadowed and downplayed a lot .

HighLine

Blue skies over all of Ireland today with plenty of snow still on the Wicklow Mountains.
Full resolution version here - https://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=United_Kingdom_Ireland.2018079.terra.250m