FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'll take the GFS 0z FI please.

This is more to my liking. Lets squeeze the last drop out of winter!
When does spring even begin Ireland?

DavidJC

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This is more to my liking. Lets squeeze the last drop out of winter!
When does spring even begin Ireland?

It began and ended on Saturday.

sryanbruen

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

Ah jaysus Syran not like we've never had it before! Never took you as one for sensationalizing!

frash

sryanbruen wrote: »

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

Don't suppose there's one of those Cork shields up?
Heading to West Cork for the Easter break.

nacho libre

No good news on the latest ecm long range forecast for those who crave warmth, it looks like it will stay on the cool side till the third week of April at least.

Kermit.de.frog

Overall unsettled and often wet right out until the 4th of April. No sign of a breakthrough for Spring yet.

nacho libre

the new models say yes:

Now we just need the other models to back it:pac:

Irish Steve

nacho libre wrote: »

the new models say yes:

Now we just need the other models to back it:pac:

And for the watchers who are not as experienced, (like me,) what are they now saying yes to?

It's clear that there's some cooler air coming in from the east (again) what's not clear is if that means just cold, or it it's also going to mean snow, and if there is going to be snow, where, and how much, as those are the sorts of things that are significant over a holiday weekend, where a lot of people will be travelling.

nacho libre

Irish Steve wrote: »

And for the watchers who are not as experienced, (like me,) what are they now saying yes to?
.

Most models are showing it as cold and wet over Easter, not cold enough for snow, though. If there was a likelihood of snow Kermit the Frog would have started a thread about it by now.

pauldry

No temperatures over Easter will be 6 or 7c and -1c at night.

Kermit.de.frog

Outlook is a bit colder now with this morning's models in to April. Still not any concern in terms of snow at low levels but that could be changing.

kingshankly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Outlook is a bit colder now with this morning's models in to April. Still not any concern in terms of snow at low levels but that could be changing.

Changing to nice weather or changing to snow ?

Kermit.de.frog

kingshankly wrote: »

Changing to nice weather or changing to snow ?

Snow For now, the trend is toward potential snowfall but again still up in the air at the moment.

pauldry

Yes could be borderline for snow at night.

Dont see any warmth at all in charts.

April will be colder than average too

Last year it was 4c on the last week of April but some warmth came in May so maybe we will get similar

When hills/high ground is mentioned, how high is high?

NAGDEFI

Dónal wrote: »

When hills/high ground is mentioned, how high is high?

180-200 metres above sea level generally. You can google my height above sea level to find out for your location by dragging a little icon to the spot:)

Here's one site.. https://www.whatismyelevation.com/

Snow level tomorrow would be around 500m above sea level i'd guess. The higher mountains.

Danno

amadangomor wrote: »

What are the chances we get a prolonged period with the jetstream south of us? I'm talking 4/5 months plus. If so would it mean continuing easterlies in general and the chance of a scorching summer? 1995 springs to mind

Jetstream to our south would deliver a summer similar to the ones from 2007-2012.

We need the jetstream well to our north to deliver a nice summer.

sryanbruen

The GFS is picking up on a snow event to occur next Monday/Tuesday - or at least around these days - locations of snow and timings of it are slightly different with the 0z and 06z but both show a snow event to occur before milder air invades from the south. I've marked the margin lines of mild and cool so it's an indication where snow is possible (not certain). I'm certainly no snow expert, these are just my estimates and interpretations.

0z

+120 hrs



+144 hrs



06z

+120 hrs



+144 hrs

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO is looking wintry over the weekend and in to the start of next week with wintry showers in the east and north of hail, sleet and snow.

The fronts look kept well south to the middle of next week.

Broadly similar to the GFS posted above but that bit colder.

ninebeanrows

Chilly looking UKM at 96hrs!

pauldry

Yeah right

April Fool!

Charts look cold for at least a week yet. Hail and Sleet most favored outcomes. I dont see any snow event coming from this.

5 or 6c by day and 0c by night

Kermit.de.frog

Sunday would be quite mixed wintry precipitation but I think showers would increasingly likely be of sleet and snow to sea level by Monday.

pauldry

Met Eireann has Monday as 12 or 13c.

Big Variance across the models

sdanseo

If it gets any colder on later runs, and if this band comes off, we'd be in a spot of bother disruption wise.

Caveat 1: It's ICON
Caveat 2: Models are all over the gaff
Caveat 3: It's 5 days away
Caveat 4: It's ICON

jdcv94

ICON performed pretty well during the BFTE event, but yeah all models are all over the place right now. Cold is pretty nailed at this point.

Maunderevents

U.K. Met BBC show snow over large parts of Ireland trough Monday
Wanted to post images but can't see any option

Wanderer78

Maunderevents wrote:

U.K. Met BBC show snow over large parts of Ireland trough Monday Wanted to post images but can't see any option

Spotted that alright, but they also mentioned large uncertainty in the forecast

JCX BXC

pauldry wrote: »

Met Eireann has Monday as 12 or 13c.

Big Variance across the models

Now they have it as 3 to 7c with a gute E-NE wind.

What a change!

sdanseo

The same band I mentioned a few posts up. Compare the two.

Saw an absolutely enourmous rat in the (suburban) garden yesterday. First time ever, although there has been a plethora of food for the birds including on the ground so maybe not surprising.