FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

GFS 12z starts off good for the Bank Holiday Weekend with high pressure approaching from the south on Friday and Saturday to building over us on Monday. A breakdown then occurs into a northwesterly. But at the very end, we go into an easterly with a big block over us.







UKMO 12z isn't amazing but high pressure attempts to ridge up from the south on Friday with the jet stream close to the north and west.



ECM 12z attempts to get the ridge from the south but the jet stream remains too close to us with a low pressure pushing in for Sunday, ending the run on a flat westerly regime. May Day looks reasonable.

2013Lara

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z starts off good for the Bank Holiday Weekend with high pressure approaching from the south on Friday and Saturday to building over us on Monday. A breakdown then occurs into a northwesterly. But at the very end, we go into an easterly with a big block over us.







UKMO 12z isn't amazing but high pressure attempts to ridge up from the south on Friday with the jet stream close to the north and west.



ECM 12z attempts to get the ridge from the south but the jet stream remains too close to us with a low pressure pushing in for Sunday, ending the run on a flat westerly regime. May Day looks reasonable.

Having a communion in the garden on Sunday (wicklow). How are we looking, don't understand the charts!

sryanbruen

2013Lara wrote: »

Having a communion in the garden on Sunday (wicklow). How are we looking, don't understand the charts!

That is a week away so is open to changes. What the models are showing tonight for Sunday is that the GFS has it as a fairly warm, settled day with some sunny spells for Wicklow whilst on the ECM, low pressure pushes in from the west giving away to cloud and rain. However, even with the ECM solution, the low looks weak in nature and doesn't make much eastward progression it seems during Sunday so may just escape. But like it's not worth talking about for now. Stay tuned to the forecasts in the week ahead.

2013Lara

sryanbruen wrote: »

That is a week away so is open to changes. What the models are showing tonight for Sunday is that the GFS has it as a fairly warm, settled day with some sunny spells for Wicklow whilst on the ECM, low pressure pushes in from the west giving away to cloud and rain. However, even with the ECM solution, the low looks weak in nature and doesn't make much eastward progression it seems during Sunday so may just escape. But like it's not worth talking about for now. Stay tuned to the forecasts in the week ahead.

Thanks for that, will be watching it like a hawk!

sryanbruen

Upper air temperatures from the GFS 0z and ECM 0z for Bank Holiday Monday.

murfo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Upper air temperatures from the GFS 0z and ECM 0z for Bank Holiday Monday.

What would that roughly equate to at ground level 8-10° higher?

sryanbruen

murfo wrote: »

What would that roughly equate to at ground level 8-10° higher?

Mid to high teens among coasts especially under fog or mist. Low 20s inland.

sryanbruen

Whilst the southeast of England will be nice once not exposed to the easterly wind, the UKMO 12z is not all that ideal for Ireland.





GFS 12z is changeable throughout with transient ridges from the Azores but zonal pattern remains in control so some rain at times - something I've been hinting at in the past week or so.

ECM 12z is very good. Starting off with a settled but perhaps rather cloudy Saturday with some brighter spells to the southeast. The cloud is broken up more on Sunday and especially on Monday. Not a very warm run but still pleasant and most importantly, dry!







Still all to play for it seems.

sryanbruen

ECM 0z showed the ridge building over the top of the country on Bank Holiday Monday and continuing into Tuesday 8th after a weak front passes through on the 6th.







GFS is quite different with the ridge much further into the east dragging in an east to southeasterly airflow with an area of low pressure close to or over Ireland. Zonal regime takes over Tuesday then.

sryanbruen

After the Bank Holiday Weekend, I think it's clear we're going into a more unsettled period again by later Monday and into Tuesday up until the latter part of next week. However, this is looking to be a temporary unsettled period of weather with high pressure never too far away either to the east or over the Azores. Many models such as the GFS, JMA and CFSv2 all support an area of high pressure extending from the Azores again during mid-May after this temporary unsettled spell whilst the ECM shows northwesterly winds but two areas of high pressure that could combine with one another to form one big block of high pressure. The problem with this I think is the jet stream as it's in a bit of a strange position which may disallow the two highs from conjoining with one another. The GFS seems to conjoin both highs ok. The GEM meanwhile to far it goes out does not show the high extending to us.









The CFSv2 is absolutely fantastic and you could not ask for a better set of charts for May. Too bad it's on its own merits and very unlikely at the moment to verify but don't rule out. Very warm and dry May being signalled at by the model here.

Meteorite58

Temperatures falling back during the week coming with some active weather coming in off the Atlantic. Colder uppers and upper trough approach towards next Fri and am interested to see if this produce's convective / thunderstorm activity . The ECM at this stage showing wet and windy weather Thurs / Fri. Into the following week most models showing ridging and warmer temperatures. Will be interesting to see where that cut off low being shown by the ECM from +216 ends up and how it will effect our weather.

catrat12

Is there summer charts boards or still using spring model discussion cheers

DOCARCH

catrat12 wrote: »

Is there summer charts boards or still using spring model discussion cheers

It's still Spring....:cool:

sumtings

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's still Spring....:cool:

Meteorological summer starts in June so still a month to go.

Meteorite58

More uncertainty now with the week beginning 14th May. Both the GFS and ECM showing cooler temperatures then previous runs and perhaps more unsettled looking. M.T mentioned the latest guidance more average looking than warm.

sryanbruen

Yes, quite a turn around from the models here today. Looking at the indexes of the NAO and AO for the past few days, I was worrying this was going to happen eventually because both of them were turning more to the neutral to negative side into the second half of May on the ensembles. It seemed odd to me showing a transient ridge from the Azores with the indexes going this way so at least now that's cleared up. Of course, could all look different tomorrow or next few days for all we know because it is FI after all.

sryanbruen

GFS 0z is back to what yesterday's 0z showed but the 12z from yesterday afternoon was an improvement with the two high pressures conjoining with one another.

ECM 0z tries to get to what the GFS 12z showed but just doesn't with a very weak area of low pressure becoming parked over Ireland.

Yesterday afternoon's update on the NAO was an improvement in the GFS ensembles with less of them showing it going to neutral or negative but nevertheless, still on a downwards trend to less positive into the second half of May.

sryanbruen

The UKMO 12z does open up opportunities for the two highs to conjoin but the problem is the jet stream which seems to be splitting but it's hard to tell. Perhaps a similar evolution to the ECM 0z.

I would certainly not give up hopes on another warm interlude (or even spell) to occur this May.

sryanbruen

Ok well, that went down the tubes quickly overnight. Though there are still some ensembles on the positive side of the NAO, it seems a large majority of them have taken a dive into negative NAO for the second half of May. This means the Azores High is weakening and high latitude blocking is very likely to occur which is not good news for warm lovers most of the time. Sometimes you can have exceptions like May 2017.



However, the ECM 12z in FI is not particular inspiring for us to end up on a good side of the blocking to be delivering warmth and sun. In fact, looking very unsettled and cool.



Not to worry, not finalised yet. Like on Monday, the models have taken another dramatic turn showing the uncertainty.

sryanbruen

Well out into FI but strong agreement from the GFS ensembles for an anticyclone to build over us for the end of May with the jet stream going way to the north. This would mean settled, warm conditions.

sryanbruen

Meanwhile, in the closer time frame, the UKMO shows high pressure beginning to push up from the southwest on Tuesday and ridging over us afterwards.

sryanbruen

Very warm southeasterly for Tuesday 22nd on the GFS 06z. Temperatures into the mid 20s quite widely inland away from coasts. Not the first time it's showing this but still unlikely.





As for the end of the run, it's nice to look at so I'll post it here. Don't take it seriously but like I said, nice to see.

Comhrá

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very warm southeasterly for Tuesday 22nd on the GFS 06z. Temperatures into the mid 20s quite widely inland away from coasts. Not the first time it's showing this but still unlikely.

As for the end of the run, it's nice to look at so I'll post it here. Don't take it seriously but like I said, nice to see.

Well we are entitled to fantasize, aren't we?

sideswipe

Dare I say it- leaving cert weather into FI!

sryanbruen

GFS runs this morning scream high pressure with plenty of transient ridges being thrown up to us and very brief weak fronts from time to time. Largely anticyclonic second half of May being signalled at. See examples from the 0z below.











ECM is a bit more changeable and more unsettled but high pressure never too far away.

irishrover99

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS runs this morning scream high pressure with plenty of transient ridges being thrown up to us and very brief weak fronts from time to time. Largely anticyclonic second half of May being signalled at. See examples from the 0z below.











ECM is a bit more changeable and more unsettled but high pressure never too far away.

I like your sun shine charts a lot more than your snow charts

sryanbruen

irishrover99 wrote: »

I like your sun shine charts a lot more than your snow charts

Well then, I've got good news again.

High pressure fest continues on the models this morning with the ECM being an upgrade on yesterday. In fact, absolute massive upgrade!

Warm southeasterly now shown on ECM for the 22nd/23rd too (with a little trough down to the Bay of Biscay which would bring some thundery downpours no doubt if it came into the warm air).

sryanbruen

ECM 0z this morning is more realistic (if that's the right word) ! High pressure close by Ireland to the southwest and the east with the north and west closer to low pressure all the time bringing more cloud here.

After yesterday's magnificent 0z run, it's no surprise why this has happened.

It's certainly not a terrible run. Just in comparison to the 0z from yesterday, not as good.













GFS is much like the ECM from yesterday with a very strong area of high pressure approaching from the south for the 24th May onwards.

pauldry

Yes the end of May and Start of June is often the hottest time of the year.

GFS very bullish on the High.

I hope it wins out.

ECM only brings mist n drizzle to Sligo. I dont like that.

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Yes the end of May and Start of June is often the hottest time of the year.

GFS very bullish on the High.

I hope it wins out.

ECM only brings mist n drizzle to Sligo. I dont like that.

GFS really is going for it. Perhaps near record breaking high pressure for the end of May.