Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

Super-Rush wrote: »

Its gone noticeably colder in the last hour.

Yes, the winds are now southeasterly from a continental source. Changes the feel immediately. Drier, less humidity in the air.

ninebeanrows

Crucial to know- they are guidelines - head forecaster makes final call. There'll be no Orange issued for 5cm in Baltinglass.

smurph6

gozunda wrote: »

You cycling from Waterford to Carlingford and then climbing a mountain? - Jeez your game!
I doubt you'd even notice the weather

Ahha might be a bit far cycling from Waterford to Carlingford although I'm sure someone's probably done it. Will be driving up Sunday morning from Kilkenny (that is if the roads are ok)

eoinfitzokk

westcork blue wrote: »

Not sure what to make of weird bird movements but I saw around 100 black back gulls in a field outside urlingford today. Are they deserting the snowy coasts?

The local turlough probbaly attracting em. Wide expanse of seasonally flooded land for em to stop whilst migrating.

zacharius

Unbelievable 2018 to date. If this pans out as expected, it means a few more days snow fest for kids, and all gone away before it gets too disruptive. Great memories for them so far.

That said, in the build up to the last event, a farmer in dub mountains / Wicklow (I think) was fretting about a flock in a barn with a suspect roof, and another out in a field with lambs due. Hope you got through it mate...

cnocbui

JCX BXC wrote: »

How do you propose clearing the runway while it's in operation?

Very carefully, with eyes peeled.

Kermit.de.frog

zacharius wrote: »

Unbelievable 2018 to date. If this pans out as expected, it means a few more days snow fest for kids, and all gone away before it gets too disruptive.

I see what you did there:D

Rougies

JCX BXC wrote: »

How do you propose clearing the runway while it's in operation?

Hmm. It would definitely help with braking after landing

M.T. Cranium

(... "I see what you did there" ... two posts back)

He was bread to be a weather forum poster.

I hope it snows up to the shinpads or some of us will be toast.

etc etc

RuthieRose

Is it ok to babysit for you sister in Ashbourne because there is an orange weather warning there and not because she needs a couple of nights away or you want to spend time with the kids:)

M.T. Cranium

zacharius wrote: »

Unbelievable 2018 to date. ... ....

And we recall that 2010 had a cold start to the year ... :cool:

Indestructable

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

(... "I see what you did there" ... two posts back)

He was bread to be a weather forum poster.

I hope it snows up to the shinpads or some of us will be toast.

etc etc

I just hope we all get a slice of the action...

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

And we recall that 2010 had a cold start to the year ... :cool:

What are you hinting at Mr. Greenland Express?

giveitholly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

What location are you interested in?

Looks like the streamers are predicted to run inland WSW from that guidance.

Anyway, it's likely to be all over by Sunday night and sea effect snow has a fairly quick settling rate so give it most of Monday and Tuesday to evaporate, should be largely gone by mid-week except in higher parts of the southeast where it may be falling on top of existing snow and a few places could see 50 cm new snow.

Will any snow make it as far as tipperary

Rougies

RuthieRose wrote: »

Is it ok to babysit for you sister in Ashbourne because there is an orange weather warning there and not because she needs a couple of nights away or you want to spend time with the kids:)

That's a very confusing sentence, but I think the answer is yes!

Kermit.de.frog

RuthieRose wrote: »

Is it ok to babysit for you sister in Ashbourne because there is an orange weather warning there and not because she needs a couple of nights away or you want to spend time with the kids:)

thomasj

M.T. Cranium wrote:

And we recall that 2010 had a cold start to the year ...

Haha the start of new years 2010!

I remember going into the pub not a sign of anything strange and coming out to a winter wonderland!

ninebeanrows

The words exceptional and historic are thrown around a lot these days but to look at these charts and then realise it is March 17th!

Most winters if we saw a set of plumes like this at T24 we'd be dancing on the streets - never mind mid-March!

Lots of people are in for a shock this weekend

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

Crucial to know- they are guidelines - head forecaster makes final call. There'll be no Orange issued for 5cm in Baltinglass.

Oh I see what you have done there

sdanseo

Weathercheck wrote: »

Crucial to know- they are guidelines - head forecaster makes final call. There'll be no Orange issued for 5cm in Baltinglass.

Ctrl+F cannot find the word guideline on this page (for the record, I agree with you that they should be treated as a guide)

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

sdanseo

Weathercheck wrote: »

The words exceptional and historic are thrown around a lot these days but to look at these charts and then realise it is March 17th!

Most winters if we saw a set of plumes like this at T24 we'd be dancing on the streets - never mind mid-March!

Lots of people are in for a shock this weekend

The very fact that MT is having to refer to "50 cm NEW snow" in the middle of March makes this already a mental winter (spring!).

Next Winter is only 8 months away. It could well be an absolute cracker.
Watching some prepping videos may not be an overreaction.

uck51js9zml2yt

I hope no one is flying Aer Lingus tomorrow

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/aer-lingus-flights-among-70-to-or-from-heathrow-cancelled-on-saturday-due-to-weather-36713763.html




It's not just AL doing it!

Rougies

sdanseo wrote: »

Ctrl+F cannot find the word guideline on this page (for the record, I agree with you that they should be treated as a guide)

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

There is a lot of language suggesting they are guidelines on that page, but this line "Weather Alerts and Warnings will be issued whenever weather conditions meeting the detailed thresholds defined below are anticipated within a 48-hr period." does suggest a hard line threshold based warning system and needs should be edited if they are moving towards a more impact based warning system.

Simply changing the word "issued" to "considered" or something similar would make that sentence a lot more flexible.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, for Tipps, yes I think some snow will make it that far, but Limerick is 50-50, just IMHO, thinking this will be similar to the pre-Emma portion of last event but without quite as much westward extension of the streamers. For Tipps I will say an average of 5 cm and some parts as high as 10 cm, some as low as 2 cm, for Limerick it would be likely just a few traces to 1 cm.

Will revise this if I think it needs an upgrade.

giveitholly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay, for Tipps, yes I think some snow will make it that far, but Limerick is 50-50, just IMHO, thinking this will be similar to the pre-Emma portion of last event but without quite as much westward extension of the streamers. For Tipps I will say an average of 5 cm and some parts as high as 10 cm, some as low as 2 cm, for Limerick it would be likely just a few traces to 1 cm.

Will revise this if I think it needs an upgrade.

Thanks M.T.

pad199207

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay, for Tipps, yes I think some snow will make it that far, but Limerick is 50-50, just IMHO, thinking this will be similar to the pre-Emma portion of last event but without quite as much westward extension of the streamers. For Tipps I will say an average of 5 cm and some parts as high as 10 cm, some as low as 2 cm, for Limerick it would be likely just a few traces to 1 cm.

Will revise this if I think it needs an upgrade.

What about Kildare MT? Should I get my snow blower out again?

M.T. Cranium

The angle of attack looks about the same so it seems reasonable to suppose that heavy snow will fall in roughly the same areas. There are bound to be subtle differences and I don't think anyone's going to get the 70 cms that a few reported last time, have said elsewhere max of 38 on lower terrain and that may be wildly "optimistic" or pessimistic depending on whether you want this or not. However, I have some recent successes in snowfall forecasts, hit Worcester MA and Bangor ME right on the money in a contest this past week (21 inches each). Not bragging, just saying that I have made a lot of snowfall forecasts so I am used to the parameters and what goes into amounts including moisture ratios, duration, and exposure to squalls. Having said all that, you can now likely expect either zero or two metres.

(let's say the 38 might be somewhere else and you'll have 20-25, let us know what actually falls) ...

M.T. Cranium

Possible explanations of the Greenland vs Iceland debacle ...

(a) when Leif Ericsson got home, they asked him, "so, what was it like?" and he had been down to pub, and said, "well one place was all ice and one was all green," and so the elders asked, "so can you sketch us a map?" and he did but his mind was blurry from strong mead and he mixed them up.

(b) the members of that voyage of discovery had a chat amongst themselves, and decided to switch the names so they could grab up the best spots for farms and send a whole bunch of their least favourite fellow Vikings to Greenland.

(c) really bad luck in what they could see on the two days when the clouds lifted.

Rougies

How about a surprise pop-up St. Patrick's weekend snowfall depth competition M.T.?

Battle us leprechauns for the white gold at the end of the streamers!

Something simple. We're already drunk.

EDIT: well holy god, I honestly didn't see the snap contest thread. Great minds think alike? But mine is a bit slower? I'll take it.

Pwindedd

What are the timelines for this - parade wise i mean ?

Never mind us locals, but there's going to be a lot of tourists here for the festivities who may not be prepared, attire wise, for the cold and snow - it would be a shame if the parade is hampered by this, but not much we can do about it.

I imagine parade participants have been preparing for weeks - hope it's not too wet and cold for them, especially the wee ones who are excited to be a part of it, plus all those in town and at the pub for the eggy-ball !

It may not be a commuters problem but there is still gonna be major disruption for many if it does materialise as forecast.

But the Irish are very good at rallying round and hospitality is what we do best. Will be grand I'm sure...:D