Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

Getting in to upgrade territory again for some snow this weekend.






Will update after this evenings model runs are finished...

cherryghost

Some models still not playing ball and continuing to sink it south. Could still have showers brushing south coast with an almost direct easterly wind, but still. Keeping my reservations until Friday at this rate

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo

unfortunately I'm going to have to watch this one from the western seaboard. Most snow will probably be melted by the time I arrive back on Monday.

Kamili

Soz...

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Lucreto wrote: »

I have to stop family panic buying bread.

They seem to think we are in for more really heavy snow this weekend.

That's a strange quirk with us in Ireland. It's like we only remember the last event. So now, the next snow event is going to be another record fall, then when it turns out to be the usual scuttery dusting that thaws after 3 hours, we'll reset to presuming that's the way it'll be always and forever more.

I remember after 2010, people I worked with panicking about the following winter and not taking any leave because they assumed every winter would be snowmageddon.

pilly

I wouldn't mind a little bit of snow Sunday and Monday but for the sake of all the kids that love the parades can it just fcuk of until then.

Kermit.de.frog

Not too bad for the parade but temperatures really taking a dive through the afternoon and evening on Saturday.

gabeeg

WOOF

gabeeg

That could put the match in jeopardy, I'd guess

gerrybhoy

gabeeg wrote: »

That could put the match in jeopardy, I'd guess

long as the roads and the like aren't too bad,the weekend of the snow gone,the football went ahead in England apart from a few lower league matches

sdanseo

Just bought extra Bread, Milk, Ham, Coleslaw, Cornflakes and Soup.

I can happily live on that combintion for a day or three.

Oh, and chocolate.
Oh, and beer.

sicknotexi

pilly wrote: »

I wouldn't mind a little bit of snow Sunday and Monday but for the sake of all the kids that love the parades can it just fcuk of until then.

Kids love snow too, perfect double.

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Will you stop teasing us ! :D

gabeeg

What do yiz reckon for a stay-at-home day on Monday?

man_no_plan

gabeeg wrote: »

What do yiz reckon for a stay-at-home day on Monday?

It's a bank holiday anyway! Hardly be too much disruption even if there's a bit of snow about.

gabeeg

man_no_plan wrote: »

It's a bank holiday anyway! Hardly be too much disruption even if there's a bit of snow about.

Oh man.

Can we delete these posts before the rest of them see?

tikkamark

gabeeg wrote: »

What do yiz reckon for a stay-at-home day on Monday?

Is Monday not a bank holiday?

gabeeg

Of course it is.

pffft

Rebelbrowser

gerrybhoy wrote: »

long as the roads and the like aren't too bad,the weekend of the snow gone,the football went ahead in England apart from a few lower league matches

could be different if it snows heavily in the hours leading up to the match which looks possible

beefburrito

I'd say it'll be that wet sloppy stuff, you'd hear it splatting at the window....

Pangea

10 Day 'Action Packed' Forecast from Met UK

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155660039774209/

BLIZZARD7

beefburrito wrote: »

I'd say it'll be that wet sloppy stuff, you'd hear it splatting at the window....

It ain't coming from the west...

Kermit.de.frog

A perkier update to the OP coming this evening

Kermit.de.frog

**Forecast UPDATED 14th March**


Turning much colder through Saturday as easterly winds become established across the country with snow showers expected Saturday night and Sunday most especially in eastern and southeastern coastal counties. Some moderate to heavy falls likely with some drifting at times.

Max temperatures on Saturday 1 to 7c (falling through the afternoon). Sunday, 1 to 3c.

Frost and ice will be widespread Saturday and Sunday nights with lows of -1 to -5c both nights. Locally lower where snow has settled.

Possible warnings: Yellow/Orange


Possible hazards:

• Snow
• Ice
• Frost

Most likely source of disruption at the current time: Snow showers

Areas most at risk: Leinster/Munster

The cold weather may continue in to the early days of next week but it should be drier overall.

---

Please keep an eye on the model thread for lots of technical chat, charts and all sorts of other useful information from great posters!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057847461&page=8

derekon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

**Forecast UPDATED 14th March**


Turning much colder through Saturday as easterly winds become established across the country with snow showers expected Saturday night and Sunday most especially in eastern and southeastern coastal counties. Some moderate to heavy falls likely with some drifting at times.

Max temperatures on Saturday 1 to 7c (falling through the afternoon). Sunday, 1 to 3c.

Frost and ice will be widespread Saturday and Sunday nights with lows of -1 to -5c both nights. Locally lower where snow has settled.

Possible warnings: Yellow/Orange


Possible hazards:

• Snow
• Ice
• Frost

Most likely source of disruption at the current time: Snow showers

Areas most at risk: Leinster/Munster

The cold weather may continue in to the early days of next week but it should be drier overall.

---

Please keep an eye on the model thread for lots of technical chat, charts and all sorts of other useful information from great posters!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057847461&page=8

What the hell has happened in the last hour???? We're talking moderate to heavy falls of snow and drifting?!!!! ME are saying a few flurries and cold!!

Kermit, is your post a ramp or have the models seriously upgraded this evening???

D

YanSno

Latest 18z gfs has the cold air bit more to the north west

uck51js9zml2yt

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

**Forecast UPDATED 14th March**

• Snow
• Ice
• Frost

Fees like a new episode of Game of THrones:D

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/JoannaDonnellyL/status/973981149717508097

Bicycle

Will it be Breadmageddon all over again? :eek:

Snowbiee21

Bicycle wrote: »

Will it be Breadmageddon all over again? :eek:

Probably , even if not needs be! The country is mad

Calibos

Bicycle wrote: »

Will it be Breadmageddon all over again? :eek:

Its going to be Pandemonium!!

spookwoman

Calibos wrote: »

Its going to be Pandemonium!!

You're on a roll there

Calibos

spookwoman wrote: »

You're on a roll there

Don't get me wrong, I love Snow but its going to make getting to work a PITA.

BabysCoffee

Can't wait to make my first doughman..... I mean snowman

nacho libre

It looks like we could see a northerly later on if the GFS is correct.
What a year this has been so far weather wise. Hopefully, given we are entering solar minimum territory, next winter will be epic in terms of snow and depth of cold.

I'm thinking a beast from the east in January, and all the glory that would entail- record breaking low temperatures, snow on the ground for days without thawing. The bar has been raised ladies and gents!

SleetAndSnow

nacho libre wrote: »

It looks like we could see a northerly later on if the GFS is correct.
What a year this has been so far weather wise. Hopefully, given we are entering solar minimum territory, next winter will be epic in terms of snow and depth of cold.

I'm thinking a beast from the east in January, and all the glory that would entail- record breaking low temperatures, snow on the ground for days without thawing. The bar has been raised ladies and gents!

At the very least I think 2018 is already a memorable year and one for the history books this early on!

jArgHA

Bicycle wrote: »

Will it be Breadmageddon all over again? :eek:

Sliced Panic Stations here we come!

Andy From Sligo

in a nutshell - how are we going to be affected in Sligo ?

duffman13

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

in a nutshell - how are we going to be affected in Sligo ?

You're not, it might be bit nippy though

M.T. Cranium

I think the 12z models Thursday should tell the story on this, but so far evidence for significant snow potential is limited. I expect a few weak streamers and localized 3 to 5 cm type falls if the "major models" are correct so far. The main story will be cold nights and chilly days.

However, the door is not closed on heavier snow possibilities, if the high is a little slower in asserting itself and we get more gradient combined with lower pressures overall this weekend.

Will certainly be watching closely as 00z guidance rolls out in a few hours. The east coast North American storm has pretty much done its thing now so the models will have a complete handle on that by now. (It dropped 40 to 70 cm of snow throughout New England into New Brunswick and southern Quebec and has weakened considerably on Wednesday, now drifting north towards Labrador).

An Ri rua

tikkamark wrote:

Is Monday not a bank holiday?

gabeeg wrote:

Of course it is.

gabeeg wrote:

pffft

Not if you're driving a snow plough?! Or delivering bread. Or carrots..

gabeeg

You must be talking about farm banks.

I wouldn't know, I'm from Dublin

hatrickpatrick

Meteociel down for anyone else? "Connection Refused"?

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO 00z



Potentially heavy convective snow showers getting well inland from Saturday evening and overnight. Risk of some drifting of snow at times.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO is a direct hit at +72 hours! pretty low pressure and the upper deep cold pool right over Ireland = Instability. GFS very similar to the 18z. I know which I'd rather have on board at this timeframe... :cool:

Kermit.de.frog

Snow showers may arrive in time for Dublin parade on the UKMO.

BLIZZARD7

ICON pretty good too @ +72hrs



And the 00z Arpege... Well now this could end up quite a snowy weekend if things keep trending this way, 850s a touch higher here however (Still -10c or lower at times)

Kermit.de.frog

Some of these runs are verging on Orange warning for eastern parts Saturday night and Sunday. Get under a convective shower train at this time of year and quite a bit of snow will fall in a short period of time and it will quickly accumulate.

Increased risk of thunderstorm activity too.

Drifting is also a real risk given the powdery nature of the precipitation. Visibility could fall quickly in heavy snow showers.

I predict "interesting" journeys home Saturday night for party goers.