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Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1
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Interesting detail in the synoptics of yesterday's snow. Apart from the lake-effect showers for the northern half of the Irish Sea, the UKMO analysed two convergence lines at 06Z; one in the southern Irish Sea and another one in the Celtic Sea. The first one is that which the Arpege was predicting a day or two in advance and pepped up the precipitation for areas south of the lake-effect streamer lines.
Also visible is an upper warm front, which makes its way across Wales and into the south of Ireland in the afternoon. The 06Z Nottingham sounding shows this front at around 800 hPa in that area at the time. It was formed by the southerly flow overrunning the cold surface airmass and would have also given enhanced precip for later in the afternoon.
By 12Z the upper front was over the east coast. There was that blob of lee cloud forming off Snowdonia, which was probably linked to this front.
By 18Z the upper front had become an upper occlusion over the south of the country but had been still producing that light snow over Munster that would have otherwise probably remained fairly dry.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Interesting detail in the synoptics of yesterday's snow. Apart from the lake-effect showers for the northern half of the Irish Sea, the UKMO analysed two convergence lines at 06Z; one in the southern Irish Sea and another one in the Celtic Sea. The first one is that which the Arpege was predicting a day or two in advance and pepped up the precipitation for areas south of the lake-effect streamer lines.
Also visible is an upper warm front, which makes its way across Wales and into the south of Ireland in the afternoon. The 06Z Nottingham sounding shows this front at around 800 hPa in that area at the time. It was formed by the southerly flow overrunning the cold surface airmass and would have also given enhanced precip for later in the afternoon.
By 12Z the upper front was over the east coast. There was that blob of lee cloud forming off Snowdonia, which was probably linked to this front.
By 18Z the upper front had become an upper occlusion over the south of the country but had been still producing that light snow over Munster that would have otherwise probably remained fairly dry.
Very interesting. I would have thought it was a traditional occlusion upon reaching the east coast early yesterday morning given the developing cap ahead on shower activity that frustrated so many overnight.
Getting a convergence zone in the north Irish sea would be a snow lovers dream for the east. Alas it was a bit south of us.0 -
M.T. Cranium wrote: »Dew point temperatures are currently around -4 or -5 C in most of inland west-central counties (and parts of NI too).
This is often a fairly reliable indicator of later minimum temperatures under clear skies and light winds.
I imagine there are patches of snowy terrain left in some of the higher parts of Leinster so colder air may form over those and drain down slope which is perhaps why Casement or Dublin A might get as cold as the usual suspects (Gurteen, Mountdillon, Markree come to mind).
Our contest pretty much hangs on the result of tonight's cold temperatures since the lowest reading so far was -4.0 at Knock on Sunday.
Congrats to Kermit for another very useful and successful forecast thread.
Thanks MT. Great analysis from yourself as always.
Main thing is to enjoy it. The buildup is all part of the event :cool: Though there was a brief moment I thought last night this might not work out.
I thought my friends and associates whom of course i'd warned would say the following day "Kermit, your an awful ****** ejjit" :pac::D0 -
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